东京，10月8日：路透社周四发布的一项调查显示，全球原油市场的波动性是日本企业面临的主要风险之首，其次是汇率波动和利率上升。
TOKYO, Oct 8 : Volatility in the global crude oil market tops the list of major risks for Japanese companies, followed by foreign exchange fluctuations and rising interest rates, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday.
始于2月28日的美国-以色列对伊朗的战争限制了原油供应，推高了能源成本，并导致包括汽车零部件和建筑材料在内的多种石油衍生品价格上涨。2025年，资源匮乏的日本有94%的原油来自中东进口。
The US-Israeli war on Iran, which began on February 28, has constrained crude oil supply, sent energy costs higher and driven up prices of a wide range of oil-derived products, including auto parts and construction materials. In 2025, resource-poor Japan imported 94 per cent of its crude oil from the Middle East.
约37%的受访者将原油市场的波动性视为对其盈利前景的最大风险，21%的人选择了汇率变动，19%的人选择了利率上升。
About 37 per cent of the survey's respondents chose crude market volatility as the top risk to their earnings prospects, while 21 per cent picked foreign exchange moves and 19 per cent selected higher interest rates.
一家陶瓷行业公司的经理在调查中写道：“由原油市场引发的能源成本上涨，以及利率上升期间投资削减导致的水泥国内需求降温——这些就是风险因素。”陶瓷行业包括玻璃、水泥和陶瓷产品的制造商。
"Rising energy costs driven by the crude oil market and investment cutbacks during a period of rising interest rates that are cooling domestic demand for cement - those are the risk factors," a manager at a company in the ceramics sector wrote in the survey. The ceramics sector includes manufacturers of glass, cement and ceramic products.
上个月，日本银行将利率上调至31年来的最高水平，行长宇田和男表示，该央行已进入新阶段，重点在于防止通货膨胀超出目标，这为未来进一步加息留下了空间。
Last month, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 31-year high, with Governor Kazuo Ueda signalling that the central bank has entered a new phase focused on preventing inflation from overshooting its target, which opened the door to further rate hikes.
一家房地产公司的经理表示：“由于利率上升，房地产需求必然会放缓。”
"Real estate demand is bound to slow down because of higher rates," a manager at a real estate firm said.
参与调查的多家公司还指出，人工智能相关投资的可持续性存在不确定性——这种投资已刺激了对先进微芯片的需求，并推动了数据中心的快速建设——可能成为盈利风险。
Multiple companies participating in the survey also cited uncertainties about the sustainability of artificial intelligence-related investment - which has spurred demand for advanced microchips and prompted a rapid buildup of data centres - as a potential earnings risk.
一家机械制造商的受访者表示：“企业管理层必须明确，由人工智能投资带来的需求增长还能持续多久，以及这种需求何时开始下降，这一点至关重要。”
"It is vitally important for corporate management to ascertain how much longer an increase in demand brought about by AI investment lasts and when such demand starts turning lower," a respondent at a machinery maker said.
上个月，三菱综合研究所表示，以数据中心为核心的人工智能投资预计在中长期内将持续扩大，但受电力供应限制、监管趋严及成本上升等因素影响，投资节奏可能会进行调整。
Last month, the Mitsubishi Research Institute said AI investment, centred on data centres, is projected to expand over the medium to long term, but the pace of investment may be adjusted due to factors like power constraints, stricter regulations and rising costs.
该调查由日经研究院于9月18日至10月2日应路透社委托进行。日经研究院共联系了508家企业，其中215家在匿名条件下作出了回应。
The poll was conducted by Nikkei Research for Reuters from September 18 to October 2. Nikkei Research contacted 508 companies, of which 215 responded on the condition of anonymity.
在财务业绩方面，32%的受访者认为当前财年上半年净利润将超过自身预期，22%的受访者认为将低于最初展望，46%的受访者预计半年度业绩将与初始预测持平。
On financial performance, 32 per cent of respondents see net earnings for the first half of the current business year beating their own forecasts, while 22 per cent believe they are missing their original outlook. And 46 per cent expect half-year results to be in line with initial projections.
日本大多数主要企业的财年从4月开始。4月至9月期间的业绩公告计划于本月晚些时候至11月发布。对于财年下半年，持悲观态度的企业多于持乐观态度的企业。
A fiscal year starts in April for most major Japanese companies. Earnings announcements for the April-to-September period are scheduled for later this month and into November. For the second half of the fiscal year, more companies are bearish than bullish about their financial outlooks.
调查显示，约22%的受访者预计净利润将低于初始预测，20%的受访者预计10月至3月的盈利将超出估计值，58%的受访者表示其初始展望保持不变。
About 22 per cent of respondents expect net earnings to fall short of their initial forecasts, 20 per cent expect October-to-March earnings to exceed their estimates and 58 per cent say their initial outlook remains intact, the survey showed.