
记者 Andra Timu 报道:在持续的政治危机将货币推至历史低位后,罗马尼亚料将维持利率不变,保持欧盟最高水平。
Romania will likely leave interest rates unchanged at the highest level in the European Union after a persistent political crisis pushed the currency to a record low.
根据彭博调查的所有经济学家预测,罗马尼亚国家银行将于周四维持关键利率在 6.5% 不变。政策制定者已维持利率不动超过两年,期间该国经历了政府动荡加剧、两位数通胀和经济低迷。
The National Bank of Romania will hold the key rate at 6.5% on Thursday, according to all economists in a Bloomberg survey. Policymakers have stayed pat for over two years, during which the country has endured resurging government turmoil, double-digit inflation and an economic downturn.
这个黑海国家正寻求组建一个全权运作的内阁,自 5 月前届政府因遏制欧盟最宽财政赤字所需措施而倒台以来,已多次尝试失败。"我们预计关键利率至少将维持在 6.50% 直到 2027 年 5 月,因为核心通胀依然顽固," 德意志银行驻布加勒斯特经济学家 Ciprian Dascalu 表示。"在产出缺口深度为负的经济体中,罗马尼亚加息似乎不太可能。
The Black Sea nation is seeking to install a fully functioning cabinet after a series of failed attempts since the previous administration collapsed in May over measures needed to curb one of the EU’s widest fiscal deficits. “We expect the key rate to stay at 6.50% at least until May 2027 as core inflation remains sticky,” said Ciprian Dascalu, a Bucharest-based economist at Erste Group Bank AG. “Rate hikes in Romania appear unlikely in an economy operating with a deeply negative output gap. Market rates increased in September, though monetary conditions remained broadly unchanged after the leu weakening.”

9 月市场利率上升,但货币条件在列伊贬值后大体保持不变。" 政治僵局加剧了列伊面临的全球压力,上周列伊在管理浮动汇率制下贬值超出央行先前偏好的区间。在去年增税效应消退本应使物价增速大幅放缓之际,货币走弱可能放大通胀风险。
The political deadlock has exacerbated global pressures on the leu, which last week depreciated beyond the central bank’s previous preferred range under a managed-float regime. The weaker currency may amplify inflation risks at a time when price growth was set to slow sharply due to the fading effects of last year’s tax increases.
央行上周表示,复杂的市场环境要求在利率和汇率之间进行"平衡"。Dascalu 指出,这表明在央行曾宣称有更大汇率灵活性空间后,汇率管理已变得不那么严格。
The central bank said last week that the complicated market environment warranted a “balancing act” between interest rates and the exchange rate. The comments suggested that the currency’s management has become less tight after the bank had touted room for greater exchange rate flexibility, according to Dascalu.
虽然罗马尼亚已由看守内阁管理超过五个月,引发对进一步削减赤字的担忧,但该国今年成功避免在三大主要信用评级机构失去投资级评级。
While Romania has been run by a caretaker cabinet for more than five months, which has raised concerns over further deficit reductions, the country has managed to avoid losing its investment grade ratings at the three major credit assessors this year.