美国已结束其在伊拉克的军事任务。分析人士称，此举或为巴格达提供更多拓展多样化伙伴关系的空间，并间接惠及中国的能源和商业利益。
The US has ended its military mission in Iraq, a move analysts said could give Baghdad more room for diversified partnerships and indirectly benefit China’s energy and commercial interests.
但他们也警告称，这一转变不太可能在北京填补权力真空，因为中国既缺乏取代美国安全角色的雄心，也缺乏相应能力。
But they cautioned that the shift was unlikely to create a power vacuum for Beijing to fill, with China lacking both the ambition and capacity to take on the US security role.
美国于9月30日正式结束其在伊拉克的“内在决心”行动，完成了在2024年、前总统乔·拜登政府时期达成的撤军协议。
The United States formally ended its Operation Inherent Resolve mission in Iraq on September 30, completing a withdrawal agreed on in 2024 under the administration of former US president Joe Biden.
这项行动始于2014年，旨在打击“伊斯兰国”。目前，伊拉克已主导安全事务，而华盛顿方面表示将继续提供有针对性的训练和情报支持。
The mission, launched in 2014 to fight Islamic State, has been replaced by an Iraqi-led security effort, while Washington has said it will continue targeted training and intelligence support.
此举标志着美国长达二十年的动荡军事存在走向终结。这段存在始于2003年的入侵，当时美军推翻了萨达姆·侯赛因，并扶植了一个什叶派主导的政府。
The move caps a turbulent two-decade US military presence that began with the 2003 invasion, which ousted Saddam Hussein and empowered a Shiite-led government.
华盛顿曾在2011年底撤出部队，但不到三年后又重返伊拉克以打击“伊斯兰国”。
Washington withdrew its forces in late 2011, only to return less than three years later to fight Islamic State.
对中国而言，此次撤军的意义或许并不在于取代美国，而在于它可能为伊拉克提供更多空间，以多样化其对外关系。
For China, the significance of the withdrawal may lie less in replacing the US than in the greater room it could give Iraq to diversify its foreign relationships.
上海外国语大学国际问题研究所研究员李伟坚表示，随着美国影响力的减弱，伊拉克在处理与外部大国的关系时可能会拥有更多自主权。
China is not looking to replace the US or inherit its role as Washington scales back its presenceLi Weijian, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies Li Weijian, a researcher at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said the diminished US involvement could give Iraq more autonomy in dealing with external powers.
李伟坚说：“美国在伊拉克的军事存在减少，以及其在中东战略的收缩，实际上对伊拉克等寻求更平衡外交政策的国家有利。”
“A reduced US presence in Iraq and a scaling back of its Middle East posture actually benefits nations like Iraq that are seeking a more balanced diplomacy,” Li said.
他还指出，伊拉克及该地区其他阿拉伯国家早已试图减少对美国的依赖——这种依赖不仅限于安全领域——这或许会增强它们与中国合作的意愿。
He said Iraq and other Arab states in the region had already been seeking to lessen their reliance on the US – beyond just the security sphere – potentially creating more willingness to cooperate with China.
李表示：“美国的霸权未能给该地区带来真正的和平”，并补充称“中国欢迎多边合作和多元化外交”。
“US dominance has failed to bring genuine peace to the region,” Li said, adding that “China welcomes multilateral cooperation and diversified diplomacy”.
中国长期以来在伊拉克拥有经济利益，特别是在能源领域，以及在该国的基础设施项目。李表示，这些利益并不依赖于美国的撤出。
China has long had economic interests in Iraq, particularly in its energy sector, alongside infrastructure projects in the country. Li said those interests did not depend on the US withdrawal.
他说，中国几十年来一直与伊拉克合作，许多中国项目无论美国是否存在都将继续进行。
He said China had been working with Iraq for decades and that many Chinese projects would continue regardless of the US presence.
李表示：“中国并不寻求取代美国，也不会在华盛顿缩减其存在时继承其角色。”
“China is not looking to replace the US or inherit its role as Washington scales back its presence,” Li said.
里赫拉研究与咨询公司的创始人杰西·马克斯表示，目前尚为时过早，无法判断美国的这一举措是否意味着美军从该地区更广泛的撤出。
Jesse Marks, founder of Rihla Research and Advisory, said it was still too early to determine whether the US move represented a broader withdrawal of American forces from the region.
马克斯说：“目前的撤军既是一个政治决定，也是一个实际决定。结束该任务并不必然意味着结束美国与伊拉克更广泛的安全关系。”因此，据马克斯称，美国的撤出并不必然意味着北京获得重大机遇。
“The current drawdown is as much a political decision as it is a practical one,” Marks said. “Ending that mission does not necessarily mean ending the broader US security relationship with Iraq.”The US withdrawal therefore does not necessarily amount to a major opening for Beijing, according to Marks.
他说：“在美军大规模存在减少的情况下，北京将继续追求能源和商业交易，但不会填补美国的安全角色。至少目前不会。”
“Beijing will keep pursuing energy and commercial deals in the absence of a larger US military presence, but it will not fill a US security role. At least not now,” he said.
他补充说，华盛顿在伊拉克的影响力将继续主要依靠外交和安全关系，而不是与中国在基础设施或能源方面的竞争。纽约智库索凡中心的资深研究员肯尼斯·卡茨曼也持相同观点。
Washington’s influence in Iraq would continue to rest primarily on diplomacy and security ties rather than competition with China over infrastructure or energy, he added. Kenneth Katzman, a senior fellow at the Soufan Centre, a New York-based think tank, echoed that view.
卡茨曼说：“中国并不设想在伊拉克扮演安全角色”，他引用了北京缺乏力量投射能力以及缺乏承担此类角色的意愿作为依据。
“China does not envision a security role in Iraq,” Katzman said, citing Beijing’s lack of force-projection capabilities and ambition to take on such a role.
相反，他说，中国的利益集中在能源领域，包括确保供应和投资于伊拉克庞大的能源产业。
Instead, he said, China’s interests were concentrated on energy, including securing supplies and investing in Iraq’s large energy industry.
卡茨曼说：“中国可能在帮助伊拉克将石油运出和开发其石油方面发挥作用，但安全角色？不。”
“China might play a role [in] helping Iraq get its oil out and developing its oil, but a security role? No,” Katzman said.
此次撤军正值巴格达试图在华盛顿和德黑兰之间平衡密切的安全与政治关系之际——这在地区内实属罕见。
The withdrawal comes as Baghdad tries to balance close security and political ties with both Washington and Tehran – a rarity in the region.
亲德黑兰派别长期以来一直要求结束美国在伊拉克的存在。自2月底美国与以色列对伊朗发动袭击后，伊拉克民兵组织进一步加强对美军在库尔德斯坦地区的攻击。
Pro-Tehran factions have long demanded an end to the US presence, with Iraqi militias stepping up attacks on US forces in Kurdistan following late-February strikes on Iran by the US and Israel.
美国撤军也引发了人们对伊拉克军队能否遏制“伊斯兰国”残余势力以及管理伊朗支持的武装组织影响力的担忧。
The US withdrawal has also raised concerns about the ability of Iraqi forces to contain Islamic State remnants and manage the influence of Iran-backed armed groups.
马克斯表示，对于中国而言，伊朗影响力的扩大或局势再度动荡并不一定有利。
For China, greater Iranian influence or renewed instability would not necessarily be beneficial, Marks said.
他说：“一个能够保护能源基础设施并与多个外部伙伴维持可预测关系的稳定伊拉克国家，最符合中国的经济利益。”
“China’s economic interests benefit most from a stable Iraqi state capable of protecting energy infrastructure and maintaining predictable relationships with multiple external partners,” he said.