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油价因供应担忧和航运袭击而攀升;加息前景令英国房地产市场承压Oil prices climb amid supply fears and shipping attacks; prospect of rate rise weighs on UK housing market

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从阿曼穆桑代姆眺望霍尔木兹海峡中的船只。摄影:路透社Vessels in the strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman. Photograph: Reuters

在伦敦股市早盘交易中,乐购股价上涨2.5%,成为富时100指数中表现最佳的股票之一。

Tesco shares have gained 2.5% in early London trading, making it one of the top risers on the FTSE 100 index.

与此同时,整个富时100指数则下跌0.7%,即76点,目前报10,381点。

The wider index is down 0.7%, or 76 points, at 10,381.

布伦特原油价格正逼近每桶103美元,而亚洲股市则出现下滑。咨询公司Label Sessions的执行董事尼克·谢拉德指出,乐购亮眼的业绩表现充分说明:这家公司未来的定位与其说是传统超市,不如说是一个消费者数据平台。他解释道:“乐购再次交出了出色的业绩答卷,证明即便在经济环境充满不确定性的情况下,它仍能保持增长势头。其销售额、利润及现金流均呈上升趋势;创纪录的客户满意度也表明,消费者对其低价、优质商品以及便捷的购物体验十分认可。”

Brent crude heads towards $103 a barrel while Asian shares slide The solid Tesco results show why its future looks less like a supermarket chain and more like a consumer data platform, says Nick Sherrard, managing director of the consultancy Label Sessions. He explains: Tesco has turned in another solid set of results, showing it can keep growing even when the wider economy feels uncertain. Sales, profits, and cash generation are all moving in the right direction, and record customer satisfaction suggests shoppers are responding to its mix of low prices, better quality, and easier ways to shop.

从更宏观的层面来看,乐购的发展实际上已演变为一个技术驱动型案例。其旗下的Clubcard拥有英国最丰富的消费者数据资源,而乐购的零售媒体业务也正借助这些数据向供应商开展高效营销。在消费者端,更加个性化的优惠活动、更广泛的奖励机制以及新推出的AI食谱规划工具等举措也广受好评,有助于乐购深化与消费者的联系并留住客户。

Bigger picture, the company’s growth has quietly become a technology story. Clubcard is one of the richest customer datasets in the UK and its retail media business is now using that to sell very effectively to suppliers. On the consumer side, more personalised offers, wider rewards, and tools like the new AI meal planner seem to be landing well with shoppers, helping Tesco deepen relationships and keep customers choosing it over rivals.

凭借强劲的线上业务增长、新的配送合作伙伴关系以及对新产品的持续投入,乐购目前处于有利地位。不过,它的未来定位显然更接近于一家消费者数据平台,而非传统超市。在竞争激烈的英国食品零售行业中,众多零售商都将把乐购的成功经验视为技术如何助力企业实现转型的典范案例。

With solid online growth, new delivery partnerships, and continued investment in new products, Tesco is in a strong position. But its future looks less like a supermarket chain and more like a consumer data platform. A lot of other retailers will be looking to Tesco’s success as a case study in how technology can transform their own fortunes in a highly competitive UK grocery sector.

乐购还上调了年度利润预期。公司表示,尽管地缘政治局势持续紧张、市场环境充满不确定性,但今年消费者的信心依然保持相对稳定。

Tesco has raised its annual profit forecast and said consumer confidence has remained relatively resilient this year despite ongoing geopolitical tensions “creating uncertainty”.

作为英国最大的食品零售商,乐购称其本财年前六个月的销售额仅增长2%,达到338亿英镑;不过扣除特殊因素后的净利润则增长了6.5%,达18亿英镑。

The UK’s biggest grocer said sales rose just 2% to £33.8bn in the first six months of its financial year but underlying profit was up 6.5% to £1.8bn.

墨菲顿·肯·墨菲(Tesco首席执行官)表示,强劲的网上销售(上升8%)和其高端自有品牌“Finest”系列收入的9%增长推动了增长。该公司补充称:尽管消费者信心在上半年保持相对坚挺,但持续的地缘政治紧张局势仍然带来不确定性,我们仍致力于帮助客户从每周购物中获得最佳价值。

Ken Murphy, the chief executive of Tesco, said growth had been helped by strong online sales, which were up 8%, and a 9% jump in revenues from its premium own-label Finest range. The company added: While consumer confidence has remained relatively resilient in the first half of the year, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to create uncertainty and we remain focused on helping customers get the best possible value from their weekly shop.

该公司表示,目前预计全年基础利润将在31.5亿英镑至33亿英镑之间。这较之前的“至少30亿英镑”利润预期有所上调,但区间下限仍较上一年有所下降。

The company said it now expects to make underlying annual profits of between £3.15bn and £3.3bn. That represents an upgrade from its previous expectation of at least £3bn in profits but the bottom end of the range would still mark a fall from a year earlier.

泰斯科在英国已有门店的销售上升1.5%,食品销售表现强劲,但该集团的博克尔批发部门仍面临困难,销售下降2.6%。

Sales at established UK Tesco stores were up 1.5% as food sales motored, but the group’s Booker wholesale arm continued to have difficulties, with sales falling 2.6%.

该超市表示,它正越来越多地使用人工智能来协助业务运营,包括一款餐计划助手,该助手自4月份起在28万名员工中进行测试,随后于9月份面向客户正式推出。

The supermarket flagged that it was increasingly using artificial intelligence to help out across the business, including a meal planning assistant which was tested from April with 280,000 staff before being launched for customers in September.

早上好,欢迎收看我们的滚动报道,涵盖商业、金融市场和世界经济。

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

油价因中东原油供应担忧上涨至每桶103美元,同时美国因飓风威胁离岸生产而减少产量,此外还有人担心伊霍尔穆兹海峡及波斯湾航运遭受日益频繁的攻击。

Oil prices have risen towards $103 a barrel on worries about crude supplies from the Middle East amid growing attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the strait of Hormuz, while the US has reduced its output as a hurricane threatened offshore production.

全球基准原油布伦特期货上涨2.62美元,至每桶102.8美元,上涨2.6%。

Brent crude, the global benchmark, advanced $2.62 a barrel to $102.8 a barrel, up 2.6%.

据路透社引述海事安全消息人士报道,自2月28日美以开启伊战以来,上周通过伊霍尔穆兹海峡航行的船只遭受攻击已达一周最高。

Attacks on tankers sailing through the strait were at a weekly high last week since the US and Israel unleashed the Iran war on 28 February, Reuters reported, citing maritime security sources.

据统计,截至10月5日的一周内,有至少12次对油罐、液化天然气罐和液化石油气罐的攻击事件发生。与此同时,海湾石油生产国加大了石油出口力度。

There were at least 12 attacks on oil, liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas tankers around the strait in the week to 5 October. At the same time, Gulf producers have stepped up oil exports.

受政府债券市场紧张局势以及部分大型科技公司寻求发行数十亿美元债务的报道影响,亚洲股市再度下跌。

Asian shares fell again amid the strain in government bond markets and reports that some big tech companies are seeking to raise billions of dollars in debt.

日本日经指数下跌1.4%,韩国综合股价指数暴跌2.6%,尽管全球最大内存芯片制造商三星电子预计,其第三季度营业利润将同比激增近九倍,达到107.4万亿韩元(约合610亿英镑)。

Japan’s Nikkei lost 1.4% while the South Korean Kospi tumbled 2.6%, even though Samsung Electronics, the world’s largest memory chipmaker, projected a nearly ninefold jump in third-quarter operating profit, to 107.4tn won (£61bn), compared with the same period last year.

英国皇家特许测量师学会(RICS)今晨表示,利率上升的前景正给英国房地产市场带来压力。

The prospect of higher interest rates is weighing on Britain’s housing market, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said this morning.

RICS指出,其房价平衡指数上月从八月的五个月高点-28降至-32,降幅超出预期;与此同时,新上市房产数量自去年年中以来首次出现增长。该平衡指数是通过扣除报告价格上涨的测量师和房产经纪人数,再减去报告价格下跌的人数计算得出的。RICS市场研究主管塔兰特·帕森斯表示:利率预期的再度升温为房地产市场带来了新的逆风,购房者变得更加谨慎,销售活动也失去了一些动力。

RICS said its house price balance fell to -32 last month from a five-month high of -28 in August, a bigger decline than expected, while the number of new properties coming onto the market rose for the first time since the middle of last year. The balance deducts those who say prices fell from surveyors and estate agents who reported rising prices. RICS head of market research Tarrant Parsons said: A renewed rise in interest rate expectations has created a fresh headwind for the housing market, with buyers becoming a little more cautious and sales activity losing some momentum.

测量师和房产经纪预计,未来三个月房价将进一步下跌,但未来一年将保持稳定。伦敦的房价平衡指数最为负面,而苏格兰和北爱尔兰则报告了价格上涨。

Surveyors and estate agents expect property prices to fall further over the next three months, but to be stable over the coming year. London had the most negative price balance while Scotland and Northern Ireland reported rising prices.

金融市场预计,英国央行将在11月将利率从3.75%上调至4%,并在明年再加息三次,每次25个基点。与美国联邦储备委员会、欧洲中央银行和日本银行不同,尽管自伊朗战争爆发以来通胀有所回升,英国央行迄今一直维持借贷成本不变。

Financial markets expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates from 3.75% to 4% in November, followed by three more quarter-point hikes next year. Unlike the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, the UK’s central bank has kept borrowing costs unchanged so far, despite a pick-up in inflation since the Iran war started.

自三月以来,新购房者的咨询量首次出现疲软,但仍远高于美伊战争爆发初期所触及的低点。

New buyer enquiries weakened for the first time since March, though it remains well above the low hit just after the outbreak of the US-Iran war.

该调查还指出租金正在上涨。租户需求的增长以及房东提供的房源减少,使得租金净差额在上半年超过了平均水平,尽管目前低于八月份的水平。

The survey also points to rising rents. Growing demand from tenants and fewer properties from landlords has pushed the net balance for rents above its average in the first half of the year, though it is lower than in August.

在此报告发布之前,抵押贷款机构劳埃德银行(Lloyds)报告称九月份房价保持不变,而全国建房互助协会(Nationwide)则报告称房价出现小幅下跌。

The report comes after mortgage lender Lloyds reported unchanged house prices in September while Nationwide building society reported a small drop.

英国央行行长贝利(Andrew Bailey)、首席经济学家皮尔(Huw Pill)以及另外两位英国政策制定者隆巴德利(Clare Lombardelli)和格林(Megan Greene)将于今日发表讲话。今日议程:英国夏令时上午9:30:英国央行信贷状况调查英国夏令时上午10:15:梅根·格林在开普敦发表讲话英国夏令时下午1:15:安德鲁·贝利在伊斯坦布尔经济论坛上发表讲话

Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England governor, chief economist Huw Pill and two other UK policymakers, Clare Lombardelli and Megan Greene, are giving speeches today. The Agenda 9.30am BST: Bank of England credit conditions survey 10.15am BST: Megan Greene speech in Cape Town 1.15pm BST: Andrew Bailey speaks at the Istanbul Economic Forum