China and other energy-importing countries are expanding clean energy capacity three times faster than energy-exporting nations, according to a recent report on the global energy transition.

The shift reflects growing determination among governments to reduce reliance on imported oil and gas, a trend reinforced by disruption of shipping via critical chokepoint the Strait of Hormuz, according to risk-management firm DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook released on Wednesday.

Over the last five years, the share of non-fossil energy in the primary energy mix across China, India and Europe has increased by 2.2 percentage points, compared with a gain of just 0.7 percentage points across the Middle East, North America and Russia, the report said.

“Transition strategies are now more heavily linked to national interests,” said DNV CEO Knut Ørbeck-Nilsen. “Fossil-importing nations are accelerating the adoption of clean energy technologies to reduce exposure to volatile fuel markets, while many fossil-exporting countries are transitioning more slowly.”The US-Israel war on Iran that started in February remains stuck in a costly stalemate of deadlocked talks and ongoing threats to shipping through the strait.

The DNV findings carry particular significance for China, a major buyer of oil and gas from the Middle East and other regions, as it prioritises energy security through domestic production and renewable deployment.

Already a dominant player in clean energy manufacturing, it is now, along with other import-reliant economies, accelerating its transition at a pace far exceeding that of exporters, according to the report.

While the disruption from the war in the Middle East was “among the most severe in history”, its impact had been “moderated by strategic reserves, particularly in China”, DNV said.

The report predicted that the Middle East’s share of global oil production would drop to around 40 per cent in 2050, down from a 50 per cent projection made last year, according to the firm.

China’s dual role as both a major importer of fossil fuels and a global supplier of clean energy technologies – solar panels, wind turbines and batteries – positions it uniquely in this shifting landscape.

In Europe, China and India, absolute electricity demand would grow by 62 per cent on average over the coming two decades, the report projected. North America, the Middle East and Russia would also electrify due to efficiency gains and cost advantages, but at a slower pace – a 47 per cent increase over the same period, according to DNV.

“China is setting the pace for electrification,” the report said, estimating electricity would supply more than 50 per cent of the nation’s final energy demand by 2060, an 85 per cent increase from 27 per cent currently.

The report projected that by 2050, the world would reduce emissions by 44 per cent from today’s levels. But that will not even be halfway to net-zero emissions, it added.

Beijing has stated goals of peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060, driven in part by energy security concerns.