A legal challenge to the vice-presidency of Indonesia’s Gibran Rakabuming Raka could haunt his political future even though he has survived damning court findings on his educational qualifications.

The Constitutional Court on Tuesday dismissed a petition to unseat the son of former president Joko Widodo, ruling that the plaintiffs lacked legal standing. But it also found no convincing evidence that Gibran’s overseas education met the minimum high-school qualification required for presidential candidates.

Legal experts say the ruling has shifted the battleground to parliament and law enforcement agencies, potentially opening a Pandora’s box for Gibran. Political observers, however, doubt President Prabowo Subianto would risk a confrontation that could destabilise his government. Gibran, who ran on the 2024 ticket alongside Prabowo – capturing 58.59 per cent of the vote – is likely to retain his office for now, but analysts say he will be dogged by questions over his future political career.

Delivering the judgment on Tuesday, Chief Justice Suhartoyo argued that the plaintiffs lacked legal standing to dispute the presidential election result because they were not contestants in the race. “Consequently, the court rules that their petition be declared inadmissible,” he said.

Although the court unequivocally stated it was in no position to disqualify the vice-president, it noted there was “no convincing evidence” to confirm that Gibran had completed an education equivalent to Indonesian senior high school.

In a news conference after the ruling, lawyer Refly Harun, one of the plaintiffs, quipped to reporters that it was unprecedented in Constitutional Court history for a ruling to bring celebration to both sides of a trial.

“The defendant is happy because he still gets to keep his vice-presidency, for now. But we are also happy because we’ve satisfactorily proved that he doesn’t have a high school diploma,” Refly said, adding that the ruling should shame Gibran into resigning.

Known locally as “Gibran’s diploma-gate”, the saga erupted on September 10 when 12 plaintiffs, led by constitutional law expert and former deputy minister of law and human rights Denny Indrayana, filed a petition with the court.

In their complaint, they accused Gibran of manipulating his secondary school degree equivalency certification. Under Indonesian election law passed in 2003, presidential and vice-presidential candidates must have completed senior high school or its equivalent.

According to his educational record, Gibran attended Orchid Park Secondary School in Singapore, where he completed his O-Levels, before taking a pathway programme at UTS Insearch in Sydney, Australia. He subsequently attained his bachelor’s degree in marketing from the UK’s University of Bradford via the Management Development Institute of Singapore in 2010. The petitioners asked the court to nullify his vice-presidency on grounds of fraud.

Herlambang P. Wiratraman, an associate professor and director of the Research Centre for Law and Social Justice at Gadjah Mada University in Indonesia, told This Week in Asia that the Constitutional Court had delivered a sound ruling that had gone as far as its legal remit allowed.

“I see it as a vigorous nudge at getting the other state institutions to act on the verdict and do their jobs under the constitution,” Herlambang said.

State administrative law scholar Bivitri Susanti, who testified as an expert witness for the plaintiffs during the court’s two-week proceedings, agreed that the ruling opened up other legal avenues for Gibran’s removal.

“The House of Representatives can now legally start a process of impeachment against the vice-president,” she said, adding that law enforcement agencies should also initiate an investigation into Gibran for alleged forgery to strengthen the impeachment case.

“So the ball is in the politicians’ court now.”On Wednesday, a group calling itself Advocators For Upholding National Ethics, Morals and Integrity filed a police report against Gibran for falsifying his educational record.

“But I suspect the police will stop short of conducting an actual investigation,” said Made Supriatma, a political analyst and visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

Made said Prabowo would want to prevent the issue from escalating into a full-blown political crisis. “The ramifications for an impeachment process would be too volatile and unpredictable for his administration.”Prabowo has so far steered clear of the controversy, offering no public comment.

However, Syahganda Nainggolan, recently appointed head of the Government Communications Agency, said in a podcast on Monday that the president had “long been aware of Gibran’s fake diploma, but saw it as a non-priority for the government to tackle”.

Saidiman Ahmad, a researcher and programme manager at Jakarta-based pollster Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting, pointed to another aspect of the debate he believed was being overlooked.

“As a guardian of democracy, the court should’ve borne in mind that limiting elected office to people of certain educational backgrounds is elitist, if not non-inclusive,” Saidiman said. He questioned using formal qualifications as a benchmark for public officials, pointing out that most Western democracies did not impose educational prerequisites on elected political leaders.

He also questioned the plaintiffs’ motives in targeting Gibran’s overseas education as a legal loophole. “It’s obvious they had a target on his back with this manoeuvre, with the end game being his political demise – either through removal from office or by barring him from future elections on technicalities.”

But Made said that what Gibran did with his education documents was essentially illegal. “He sought to circumvent existing regulations through falsification, and that is always wrong.”Analysts are divided on whether the court’s findings automatically bar Gibran from running again for vice-president or president in the future. “This constitutional blight on his persona should strongly dissuade political parties from nominating him as a candidate,” Bivitri said.

In contrast, Saidiman saw the ruling as no impediment to Gibran’s future candidacy, provided a proper degree equivalency certificate could be obtained from the Ministry of Education.

Gibran has publicly denied not having completed his secondary education. “If I hadn’t graduated from high school, I wouldn’t have been able to enrol at a university. Please bear in mind I finished my tertiary education in Singapore,” he told reporters on Wednesday.

Made said that Gibran might retain his current post but would likely not emerge unscathed. “His political legitimacy will greatly suffer as a result,” Made said. “And this will come back to haunt him again and again.”