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尽管全球逆风,印度公司利润增长预计将加速Indian firms seen posting faster profit growth despite global headwinds

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10月8日——五家券商表示,尽管全球和本地逆风导致各行业表现可能出现分化,但印度公司九月季度利润增长有望加速。

Oct 8 - Indian companies' September-quarter profit growth is expected to accelerate even as performance is likely to be uneven across sectors due to global and local headwinds, according to five brokerages.

外资正以创纪录的速度撤出印度股票,推动基准指数Nifty 50(.NSEI)逼近15年来最差的一年。季风强度十年来最弱,增加了农村需求的担忧;中东冲突则在全球范围内加剧通胀担忧,提高了新兴市场经济体和股市的风险溢价。

Foreign investors have pulled out of Indian stocks at a record pace, pushing the benchmark Nifty 50 (.NSEI) towards its worst year in 15 years. While a weakest-in-a-decade monsoon has raised rural demand concerns, the Middle East conflict has fuelled inflation concerns globally, raising the risk premium on emerging market economies and equity markets.

通过路透印度文件(Reuters India File)通讯获取最新的印度新闻及其对全球的影响。

However, "resilient domestic demand in Q2, early festive inventory build-up, favourable pricing in selective commodity-linked sectors should continue to support earnings growth," said J.P.

然而,J.P.摩根分析师团队(领衔Rajiv Batra)表示:“第二季度国内需求保持韧性,节前库存提前积累,部分商品关联行业的定价有利,这些都将继续支撑盈利增长。”

Morgan analysts led by Rajiv Batra.

根据券商预估,Nifty 50成分公司的净利润平均预计同比增长约20%。在4月至6月期间,净利润达到18%的十季度最高水平,此前三季度仅实现低单位数增长。

Nifty 50 firms' net profit is forecast to rise about 20% year-on-year on average, based on brokerage estimates. In April-June, it hit a 10-quarter high of 18% following three quarters of low-single-digit growth.

Motilal Oswal最为乐观,预测净利润将增长27%,这将是过去17个季度中增速最快的。

Motilal Oswal is the most optimistic, forecasting a 27% increase in net profit, which would be the fastest in 17 quarters.

该券商看好汽车和新兴科技平台,选出Meesho(MEES.NS)、PhysicsWallah(PHYS.NS)、Mahindra & Mahindra(MAHM.NS)和TVS Motor(TVSM.NS)等公司,认为它们受结构性增长趋势、可自由支配需求回暖以及产品组合扩张的推动。

The broker is bullish on automobiles and new-age tech platforms, picking the likes of Meesho (MEES.NS), PhysicsWallah (PHYS.NS), Mahindra & Mahindra (MAHM.NS) and TVS Motor (TVSM.NS), on structural growth trends, recovering discretionary demand and expanding product portfolios.

PhillipCapital预计净利润将温和增长13%,原因是利润率受压以及除油气行业外的业务组合不够有利。塔塔咨询服务公司(TCS.NS)将在当天稍后开启财报季。

PhillipCapital expects a modest 13% rise, reflecting margin pressure and a less favourable mix outside the oil and gas sector. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS.NS) will kickstart the earnings season later in the day.

行业观察:大多数分析师认为金融板块将成为主要盈利支柱,因其贷款增长健康、信用成本下降,且银行不良贷款率下降。

SECTOR WATCH Most analysts back financials to be the principal earnings anchor, with healthy loan growth, lower credit costs and fewer loans turning bad at banks.

“随着印度储备银行加息并转向‘审慎收紧’的立场,我们预计大型私营银行的盈利预期将进一步上调,”摩根大通表示。

"Following the Reserve Bank of India's rate hike and its shift to a 'calibrated tightening' stance, we expect large private banks to see further earnings upgrades," said J.P.

多家券商表示,印度工业商业银行(ICBK.NS)、印度国家银行(SBI.NS)和巴贾吉金融公司(BJFN.NS)的盈利表现将尤为突出。

Morgan.

美伊战争已进入第八个月,其影响很可能在汽车、能源和消费品领域尤为明显。由于该地区石油难以运抵印度——全球第三大原油进口国——成本随之上升。

Multiple brokerages say earnings from ICICI Bank (ICBK.NS), State Bank of India (SBI.NS) and Bajaj Finance (BJFN.NS) would stand out. Effects of the US-Iran war, now in its eighth month, are likely to be felt sharply across automobiles, energy and consumer goods, as oil from the region struggled to get through to India, the world's third-largest crude importer, raising costs.

本季度,由于产品结构优化、定价策略调整以及减税措施,汽车零售销售额有所增长。

Automobile retail sales rose during the quarter on improved product mix, pricing and tax cuts.

然而,科塔克机构权益公司预计,大宗商品市场的逆风将拖累营业利润率。

However, Kotak Institutional Equities expects commodity headwinds to drag operating margins.

原油价格上升可能利好上游企业及石油转化工公司,同时给石油营销企业带来压力。

Higher crude prices are likely to favour upstream and oil-to-chemicals companies, while pressuring oil marketing firms.

石油转电信集团、也是全球最大炼油综合体的运营商——信实工业(RELI.NS)预计将从中受益,从而缓解其零售业务相对疲软的表现。

Oil-to-telecom conglomerate and operator of the world's largest refining complex, Reliance Industries (RELI.NS), is expected to benefit from this, tiding over a relatively softer retail performance.

由于客户在人工智能引发的价格压力下推迟非必要支出,IT行业的需求可能依然低迷。

IT demand may remain subdued as clients delay non-essential spending amid AI-driven pricing pressure.

“我们预计管理层在评论中将反映该行业面临的多重挑战——地缘政治、疲软的宏观经济环境以及人工智能带来的威胁,”Nuvama表示。修改第8段,将TCS将在周五之后、而非周五公布盈利。

"We expect management commentaries to reflect the multi-pronged challenges the sector faces — geopolitics, weak macro and AI threat," Nuvama said. Changes paragraph 8 to say TCS will report earnings later in the day, not Friday