周四发布的一项调查显示，大多数德国民众认为总理弗里德里希·默茨推行的改革措施方向有误；这位保守派领导人目前的支持率也跌至个人最低水平。与此同时，反移民的德国选择党在民意支持率方面仍保持明显领先。
Most Germans say Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s reform drive is heading the wrong way, and the conservative leader has fallen to a personal low, a survey published on Thursday found, as the anti-immigrant AfD holds a clear lead in voting intentions.
这项由公共广播机构ZDF发起的民调显示，59%的受访者认为，联合政府已制定或部分实施的养老金、医疗及长期护理领域改革措施正朝着“错误的方向”发展；仅有30%的人认为这些举措符合正确方向。在支持默茨的保守派基民盟/基社盟阵营内部，也有66%的人对改革方向持肯定态度。
The poll for public broadcaster ZDF found that 59% of respondents believe the coalition’s planned and partly adopted changes to pensions, health care and long-term care are going in “the wrong direction.”Only 30% said the measures are on the right track. Supporters of Merz’s conservative CDU/CSU alliance were the only party camp with a majority in favor, at 66%.
大多数选民对改革成本分配不公的现象感到不满。约80%的受访者认为负担分配方式不公平，仅有12%的人认为分配合理。关于社会保险制度改革，77%的受访者表示不相信政府能为解决相关问题作出实质性贡献。
Most voters were angry about what they saw as an unjust distribution of the costs. Some 80% said the burdens are distributed unfairly, against 12% who called the distribution fair. On the social-insurance changes, 77% said they do not believe the government will make an important contribution to solving the problems.
默茨支持率创个人新低 该民调采用从+5（非常正面）到−5（非常负面）的评分体系，以评估民众对各政治人物的好感度及对其政绩的评价。结果显示，默茨的得分为−2.0，较9月份的−1.9略有下滑，这一数值也创下了他个人支持率的新低。
Chancellor sets a personal low The poll asked how respondents view each politician, on appeal and record, from +5 (very positive) to −5 (very negative). Chancellor Merz scored −2.0, slightly worse than −1.9 in September, a new personal low and his weakest rating in the series so far.
中左翼社会民主党所属的国防部长鲍里斯·皮斯托里乌斯以1.3分的得分勉强维持榜首位置，但较之前的1.4分有所下滑。梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州的社会民主党州长曼努埃拉·施韦西格得分为1.1。来自默茨所属的保守派基民盟的北莱茵-威斯特法伦州州长亨德里克·武斯特得分为0.8。
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) stayed narrowly in first place at 1.3, down from 1.4. Manuela Schwesig, the SPD premier of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, scored 1.1. Hendrik Wuest, the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia from Merz's conservative CDU, scored 0.8.
反移民的德国选择党持续领先 若本周举行大选，预计右翼的德国选择党将获得28%的选票，领先于默茨领导的基民盟/基社盟联盟的21%。作为默茨联合政府伙伴的中左翼社会民主党支持率将维持在13%。在在野党中，主张环保的绿党支持率将上升1个百分点至15%；左翼社会党维持12%的得票率；自由民主党则有望获得3%的选票。
Anti-immigrant AfD holds its lead If a general election were held this week, the poll projects the right-wing AfD at 28%, ahead of Merz’s conservative CDU/CSU alliance at 21%. The center-left SPD, Merz’s coalition partner, would remain at 13%. Among the opposition parties, the environmentalist Greens would gain 1 point to reach 15%, the socialist Left Party would remain at 12%, and the liberal FDP would receive 3%.
数据显示，如果立即举行大选，默尔茨领导的基民盟/基社盟联盟以及中左翼的社民党都难以获得议会多数席位。
The figures suggest that, if a snap election were held, Merz’s CDU/CSU alliance and the center-left SPD would fall short of a parliamentary majority.
多数民众视德国选择党为威胁：约68%的受访者认为德国选择党对德国的民主制度构成威胁，但也有29%的人持反对意见。在德国东部各州，持反对意见的比例高达42%，明显高于西部的26%。
Majority sees AfD as threat Some 68% of respondents said the AfD is a danger to democracy in Germany. But 29% disagreed. Disagreement was higher in the former eastern states, at 42%, than in the west, at 26%.
2025年，德国国内情报机构认定德国选择党为典型的右翼极端组织，理由是该党持有反民主立场且与右翼极端团体存在关联。该党则否认这一结论，并已在法庭上提出抗辩。
Germany's domestic intelligence agency classified the AfD in 2025 as a confirmed right-wing extremist endeavor, citing anti-democratic positions and ties to right-wing extremist groups. The party rejects that finding and is challenging it in court.
针对因所谓反民主主张而提议取缔德国选择党的方案，43%的人表示支持，51%的人表示反对。在默尔茨领导的保守派基民盟/基社盟联盟的支持者中，反对比例高达54%；在自由民主党支持者中，这一比例更是达到55%。
Asked about proposals to ban the AfD over its alleged anti-democratic goals, 43% favored outlawing the party and 51% opposed it. Opposition was higher among supporters of Merz's conservative CDU/CSU alliance, at 54%, and among supporters of the liberal FDP, at 55%.
关于各政党与德国选择党的合作问题，45%的人认为各党原则上都应拒绝与该党合作，其中社民党支持者中这一比例达70%，绿党支持者为76%，左翼党支持者则高达79%。另有53%的人认为各党应视具体情况而定，其中基民盟/基社盟联盟支持者中这一比例为54%，自由民主党支持者中则高达86%。
On cooperation, 45% said other parties should refuse in principle to work with the AfD, including 70% of SPD supporters, 76% of Greens supporters and 79% of Left Party supporters. As many as 53% said parties should decide case by case, including 54% of CDU/CSU supporters, and 86% of FDP supporters.