股市已重返历史高位，尽管近期宏观经济状况显著恶化——尤其是油价上涨和国债收益率攀升——这让许多人感到困惑。然而，对于许多长期关注市场的人士而言，这一最新涨势并不意外。市场高度集中于科技板块，这在很大程度上使标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数免受周期性担忧的影响，至少目前是如此。此外，预计下一轮财报季将创下历史性的盈利增长，这让投资者相信，那些增长最快的巨头企业将能够避开日益显现的经济裂痕。
The stock market is back at all-time highs, a baffling ascent to many given just how much macroeconomic conditions have deteriorated lately — namely, in the rising price of oil and climbing Treasury yields. But to many close observers of the market, the latest rise is unsurprising. The market's heavy concentration in technology has largely immunized the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite against the cyclical concerns weighing down the rest of the market, at least for now. And, the prospect of yet another earnings season that's projected to show historic strength in profits has investors confident that the largest companies that are growing the fastest will be able to sidestep growing cracks in the road.
话虽如此，如果油价和收益率继续恶化，可能会开始动摇经济根基，进而拖累主要股指。周四，股市在周二触及高点后连续第二天下跌。尽管近期动荡不断，股市仍接近历史高位，以下是五个主要原因。科技股集中：华尔街有一句俗语，股市并不等同于经济。而谈到标准普尔500指数的构成，这一点正变得愈发明显。该宽基指数中有40%由科技股组成，近期这些股票大幅上涨，因为投资者对利率上升感到担忧，开始重新青睐那些最能抵御经济突然下滑的公司。
That said, if oil and yields keep getting worse, that could start to turn the economy upside down, hurting the major averages. On Thursday, stocks were down for a second day after Tuesday's peak. For all of the latest turmoil, here are five reasons why the stock market still remains close to all-time highs. Tech concentration There's an adage on Wall Street that the stock market is not the economy. And, when it comes to the makeup of the S & P 500, that's increasingly he case. Forty percent of the broad market index is made up of tech stocks, which have surged recently as investors — wary of higher interest rates — turn back to those companies most able to weather any sudden downturn.
“七巨头”公司正是这一转变的最大受益者之一，因为它们拥有极其稳健的资产负债表。该集团今年早些时候几乎未有任何变化，但在过去三个月内上涨了11%。最近几周凸显了市场过度向科技股倾斜所带来的差异。标准普尔500指数或许已创下历史新高，但以实体经济为导向且对高收益率和油价更为敏感的道琼斯工业平均指数，却比8月初的历史高位低出了6%以上。
The Magnificent Seven companies are among the biggest beneficiaries of the shift, given their fortress balance sheets. The group, which until recently was little changed this year, rallied 11% over the last three months. The past few weeks have underscored the difference when there's a significant tilt toward tech. The S & P 500 may be at all-time highs, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average, known for its skew to the real economy and more sensitive to higher yields and oil, is more than 6% below early August record.
盈利表现 投资者正寄望于企业盈利推动年末股市上涨。预计企业利润将保持强劲，而公司未来的业绩指引若能同样乐观，将有助于投资者关注基本面，而非负面新闻。近几个季度，盈利增长迅速扩张，这一趋势预计将在第三季度延续。根据FactSet的数据，标普500成分股公司的综合盈利增长率预计将超过29%，连续第三个季度高于25%。理论上，这或能再次推动牛市扩大，尤其是在能源等预计盈利增长最快的板块。
Earnings Investors are counting on earnings to drive a late-year rally in stocks, with projected strength in corporate profits — and, hopefully, companies' forward guidance — helping investors focus on fundamentals rather than negative headlines. In recent quarters, earnings growth has expanded at a rapid pace, a trend that's expected to continue in the third quarter. S & P 500 companies are expected to post a blended earnings growth rate of more than 29%, the third straight quarter of growth above 25%, according to FactSet data. In theory, that could help the bull market broaden out again, especially in sectors such as energy where the fastest earnings growth is expected.
收益率 是的，债券收益率已升至数十年来最高水平，10年期美国国债收益率更是触及2002年以来的高点。但投资者指出，由于多种原因，成本更高的资本尚未对股市造成明显影响。首先，许多投资者接受这样一个观点：更高的收益率可能是人工智能建设快速推进所付出的代价，而非对通胀上升的反应。这些交易员认为，当前债券收益率水平仅回归至历史正常区间。另一些人则表示，紧张的信用利差为收益率的上限提供了约束。然而，如果收益率持续攀升，最终仍可能侵蚀企业盈利能力。
Yields Yes, bond yields are at multidecade highs, with the 10-year Treasury hitting its highest point since 2002. But higher priced capital has yet to meaningfully dent equities, for several reasons cited by investors. For one, many investors accept that higher yields may be the price of rapid growth from the artificial intelligence buildout, rather than a response to higher inflation. These traders argue that the current level of bond yields have only normalized to historic levels. Others say that tight credit spreads are helping put a ceiling above just how high yields could get. Yet, if yields keep climbing, they could eventually dent corporate profitability.
油价 高油价是一个问题，低收入消费者在加油站价格飙升中承受了最大压力。但对整体股市而言，这尚未损害企业盈利前景，该前景依然光明。Russell Investments加拿大策略主管BeiChen Lin表示，他预计油价需连续数月保持在每桶100至120美元之间，才会开始对股市造成冲击，而非像最近几周那样，价格突破每桶100美元后又回落。
Oil Expensive oil is a concern, with lower-income consumers bearing the brunt of the spike in prices at the pump. But, for the broad stock market, it has yet to hurt the corporate profit outlook, which remains bright. BeiChen Lin, head of Canadian strategy at Russell Investments, said he expects that oil prices would have to reach between $100 and $120 a barrel for several months before they start to hurt equities, rather than topping $100 a barrel and then falling back down, as they've done in recent weeks.
国际基准布伦特原油期货最新收盘价接近每桶106美元，而美国基准WTI原油价格接近每桶93美元。消费者 即便消费者依然表现出韧性，最新的零售销售报告所显示出的强劲表现也表明，美国人仍在继续购物——尽管他们对经济的公开信心已降至十年多以来的最低水平。劳动力市场也成功维持住了稳定，尽管正面临人们对人工智能带来冲击的日益担忧。
International benchmark Brent crude futures last traded close to $106 a barrel, while the U.S. benchmark WTI was closer to $93 a barrel. Consumer Even the consumer remains resilient, with strength in the latest retail sales report highlighting that Americans are still shopping — even as their stated confidence in the economy has weakened to its lowest in over a decade. The labor market has managed to hang on, even as it contends with growing fears of AI disruption.
美国失业率仍保持在4.2%，即便雇主已放缓了招聘节奏。只要消费者继续为旅行和休闲等体验性消费买单，股市也将能够继续维持稳定。而目前来看，情况似乎确实如此。归根结底，只要债券收益率和油价不颠覆当前的经济扩张，股市或许就具备足够的积极因素来继续上涨。
The U.S. unemployment rate remains at 4.2%, even as employers have slowed the pace of hiring. So long as consumers continue to spend on experiences, such as travel and leisure, the stock market can continue to hang on as well. And, for the present, that seems to be the case. Ultimately, so long as yields and oil don't upend the economic expansion, the stock market may have just enough going right for it to continue to advance.