
委内瑞拉的玻利瓦尔在平行市场上首次兑美元汇率跌破1000,这考验着当局在政府硬通货销售下降的情况下遏制其持续贬值的努力。
Venezuela’s bolivar weakened past 1,000 per dollar in the parallel market for the first time, testing authorities’ efforts to contain its slide amid declining government sales of hard currency.
本周,在加密货币市场中,饱受打击的玻利瓦尔触及了这一象征性关口。Tether的USDT稳定币价格被广泛用作非官方汇率的参考指标。该汇率与官方汇率之间的差距已扩大至15%。
The battered bolivar hit the symbolic milestone this week in crypto markets, where the price of Tether’s USDT stablecoin is widely used as a proxy for the unofficial exchange rate. The gap between that rate and the official exchange rate widened to 15%.
此前,政府通过向货币市场投放数十亿美元,成功将贬值幅度控制在相对有限的范围内,但过去三个月内这些销售规模持续下降。根据位于加拉加斯的咨询公司Sintesis Financiera的数据,9月份的外汇销售降至14亿美元,为4月份以来的最低水平。
The government had managed to keep depreciation relatively contained by supplying billions of dollars to the currency market, but those sales have declined steadily over the past three months. They fell to $1.4 billion in September, the lowest since April, according to data from Caracas-based consultancy Sintesis Financiera.
为抑制货币市场的影响,中央银行于上个月推出了新措施,以收紧国内金融系统中的玻利瓦尔流动性,但其效果尚未显现。
To contain the impact in currency markets, the central bank introduced new measures last month to squeeze bolivar liquidity in the local financial system, but their effect is yet to be seen.
随着政府支出在年末逐步增加,向经济体系注入更多玻利瓦尔,货币面临的压力可能会进一步加剧。
Pressure on the currency could intensify as government spending picks up toward the end of the year, injecting more bolivars into the economy.
“10月份公共支出将不得不增加,”位于加拉加斯的金融咨询公司Sintesis Financiera的分析师在本周的一份报告中写道,“我们预测公共支出将加速增长20%,这符合第四季度的典型特征。”控制汇率一直是委内瑞拉抑制通货膨胀政策的关键环节。根据中央银行的数据,截至9月份,消费者价格指数累计上涨225.3%,尽管月度通货膨胀率一直维持在8%左右。
“Public spending will have to rise in October,” analysts at Caracas-based Sintesis Financiera, a financial consultancy, wrote in a report this week. “We forecast a 20% acceleration in public spending, typical of the fourth quarter.”Controlling the exchange rate has been a key element in Venezuela’s policy to tame inflation. Consumer prices accelerated 225.3% through September, though monthly inflation has held near 8%, according to central bank data.
今年,政府利用石油收入资金在货币市场抛售了超过120亿美元。自1月初强人尼古拉斯·马杜罗被捕以来,这些资金一直受到美国的密切监督。经济学家警告称,如果硬通货供应减少而国内支出增加,那么依靠持续抛售美元来捍卫玻利瓦尔将变得越来越困难。
The government has sold more than $12 billion in the currency market this year using funds from oil revenue, which are closely overseen by the US ever since the capture of strongman Nicolás Maduro in early January. Economists have warned that relying on continued dollar sales to defend the bolivar will become increasingly difficult if the supply of hard currency declines while domestic spending rises.