据Gartner预测，超过一半的量子计算初创公司将在2030年前倒闭，因为市场过度拥挤，难以产生足够的商业收入。分析师预计，客户将拒绝那些未能实现容错量子计算的技术——即在底层硬件出现错误的情况下仍能可靠计算。尽管有此预测，Gartner表示，随着量子技术开始显示出早期的实际商业优势，企业正进行初步投资。广泛的商业实用性仍难以捉摸，但组织正在构建专业能力，而不是等技术成熟后再行动。
More than half of quantum computing startups will be out of business by 2030, Gartner predicts, as an overcrowded market struggles to generate enough commercial revenue. The analyst expects customers to reject technologies that fail to achieve fault-tolerant quantum computing – reliable computation despite errors in the underlying hardware. Despite that forecast, Gartner says enterprises are making initial investments as quantum technologies begin to show early signs of practical business advantage. Broad commercial usefulness remains elusive, but organizations are building expertise rather than waiting for the technology to mature.
“首席信息官和IT领袖应将量子之旅视为多年的努力，目标是相对于最接近的竞争对手获得竞争优势，”Gartner副总裁分析师、其新兴市场动态团队首席研究员Gaurav Gupta说。
"CIOs and IT leaders should treat their quantum journey as a multi-year endeavor with the aim of gaining a competitive business advantage over their closest competitors," says Gaurav Gupta, Gartner VP analyst and chief of research for its emerging market dynamics team.
估计量子初创公司的数量在200到300家之间，它们在Gartner预测的2027年全球收入将达11亿美元的市场中竞争。这仅是三星、英伟达等公司季度收入的一小部分，但仍高于今年预测的8.699亿美元。
Estimates put the number of quantum startups at between 200 and 300, competing in a market Gartner forecasts will generate $1.1 billion in worldwide revenue in 2027. That is a tiny fraction of the quarterly revenue of companies such as Samsung and Nvidia, but still up on the $869.9 million forecast for this year.
正如几年前报道的那样，开发有用的量子计算机需要持续的资金支持，而像IBM或Google这样的大公司收入渠道充足，初创公司可能只能依赖种子资金，如果不能说服投资者其项目有前景，这些资金最终会耗尽。
As The reported a couple of years back, developing useful quantum computers requires sustained funding, and while big players like IBM or Google have no shortage of revenue streams, startups may be subsisting on seed funding that will eventually run out if they can't persuade investors that they are onto something.
因此，量子行业仍面临诸多挑战，但在系统中量子比特（qubit）的数量、算法开发、门速率和可靠性方面都在稳步推进。至少根据Gartner的说法，突破的速度比最初预期的更快。
The quantum industry therefore still faces numerous challenges, but continues to make steady progress, not just in the number of quantum bits (qubits) in a system, but in algorithm development, gate speeds, and reliability. And breakthroughs are happening more rapidly than initially expected, at least according to Gartner.
古普塔声称：“早期量子优势时代已经到来，因为含噪声的中等规模量子处理器现在拥有足够的量子比特，能够通过改进的误差减少来执行有限的复杂任务。”该机构认为，公共部门和金融业将是量子计算项目支出最多的两个市场。其中，在各国获得技术领先地位的强烈愿望驱动下，预计公共部门最初将占据领先地位。
"The early quantum advantage era has arrived because noisy intermediate-scale quantum processors now have enough qubits to do limited complex tasks with improved error reduction," claims Gupta. The firm identifies the public sector and the financial industry as the two markets likely to spend the most on quantum computing initiatives. Of these, the public sector is forecast to lead at first, driven by a strong desire for nations to gain technical leadership.
预计该领域的总支出将从今年的2.19亿美元增至2027年的2.45亿美元。预计银行、金融和保险公司将在2028年超过公共部门，支出达到2.89亿美元，而公共部门为2.80亿美元。高德纳预测，它们将一直保持最大客户行业的地位直到2030年。美国能源部最近启动了一项计划，将有多达十个参与者竞争在2028年之前交付一台具有容错能力、具有科学意义的量子电脑。考虑到其提供的资金数额有限，这个雄心勃勃的目标几乎注定会失败。®
Total spend here in 2027 is expected to amount to $245 million, up from $219 million this year. Banking, finance, and insurance firms are expected to overtake the public sector in 2028, spending $289 million against its $280 million. Gartner forecasts that they will remain the largest customer sector through 2030. The US Department of Energy recently kicked off an initiative that will see up to ten participants compete to deliver a fault-tolerant, scientifically relevant quantum computer by 2028, an ambitious goal that is almost certain to fail given the modest amount of funding it is offering. ®