曼谷——8月发生致命校园枪击案四天后，泰国当局启动该国历史上最大规模的枪支管控行动。
BANGKOK -- Four days after a deadly school shooting in August, Thai authorities launched he country's biggest-ever crackdown on gun ownership.
总理阿努廷·查恩维拉库尔办公室发表声明称，将暂停发放新的枪支购买许可证。同时，将对枪支和弹药的贸易进行更严格的检查，并规定枪支申请人必须提供心理健康证明。
Issuance of new permits to buy firearms was to be suspended a statement from Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's office said. Checks on trade in guns and ammunition would be intensified, and a mental health certificate would become mandatory for firearms applicants.
非法枪支的漏洞将被堵住，而一项曾引发争议的政府计划——为官员提供低价枪支的“福利枪”计划——也将暂停。政府官员被给予60天的时间修订相关法律。泰国绝非亚太地区唯一面临日益严重的枪支暴力问题的国家。
Loopholes for illegal firearms would be closed and a controversial government scheme offering cut-price guns for officials -- known as "welfare guns" -- would be paused. Officials were given 60 days to revise the law. Thailand is by no means the only country in the Asia-Pacific region to face growing gun violence.
例如，菲律宾和澳大利亚在过去12个月内都发生了大规模枪击事件。
The Philippines Australia for instance, have been rocked by mass shootings within the last 12 months.
但据估计，泰国民间持有的枪支数量超过东南亚其他国家总和。一些专家认为，尽管泰国过去对枪支暴力事件曾采取严厉措施，但如今当局正面临一个愈发严峻的问题。一枚弹壳散落在8月7日校园枪击案发生地的建筑内。
But Thailand is estimated to have more civilian-held firearms than the rest of Southeast Asia combined. And while it has responded harshly to incidents of gun violence in the past, authorities now face an intensifying problem, some experts say. A bullet casing lies on the floor in the building where the Aug. 7 school shooting took place.
一位参与枪支许可监管的政府官员（因问题敏感要求匿名）表示，这起造成9人死亡（包括14岁的枪手）的枪击事件在政府内部引发了恐慌。“当时确实出现了恐慌，毫无疑问。”他告诉《日经亚洲》。
A government official involved in overseeing gun licensing, who asked not to be named citing the sensitivity of the matter, said the shooting incident which left nine dead, including the 14-year-old shooter, caused alarm in government. "There was definitely panic. Absolutely," he told Nikkei Asia.
校园袭击事件发生后的几周内，又发生了两起引人注目的枪击案。这位泰国政府官员称，问题的严重程度“令人担忧”。
Within weeks of the school attack, two other high-profile shootings occurred. The scale of the problem is "worrying," the Thai government official said.
总部位于日内瓦的小型武器调查组织（SAS）高级顾问亚伦·卡普表示，根据泰国数据，该国民间持有的枪支数量约为1000万支，其中400万支无许可证且属于非法持有。
Aaron Karp, a senior consultant at the Geneva-based Small Arms Survey (SAS) research organization, said Thai data puts the number of civilian-owned guns in circulation at around 10 million, with 4 million of those unlicensed and illegal.
另请参阅：一名枪手在一名14岁少年展开杀戮 spree 几天后射杀泰国官员。然而，卡普指出，实际数字可能要高得多。“泰国在编制国家统计数据方面并不擅长，因此我们没有可靠的枪支统计数据，甚至连可靠的凶杀案统计数据都没有，”他说。
See also Gunman shoots Thai official days after 14-year-old went on killing spree Yet the actual number is probably much higher, Karp suggested. "Thailand is not very good at producing national statistics, so we don't have good gun statistics. We don't even have good homicide statistics," he said.
“我的研究组织于2018年发布的[1000万]这一估计数据，是基于2012年警方的一份声明。而这一数字被不断重复。所有人都重复使用它，包括现在的警方，”卡普说。
"The [10 million] estimate that my research organization published in 2018 was based upon a police statement from 2012. And it gets repeated. Everybody repeats it, including the police now," said Karp.
另一个反映枪支管制问题规模和普遍性的指标是：8月初的枪击事件是仅次于2022年10月一家托儿所发生38人死亡事件的最致命案件。此外，2020年2月的一起事件中有30人死亡。
Another indicator of the scale and endemic nature of the gun control problem: The early August shooting was the deadliest only since October 2022, when 38 were killed at a nursery. And 30 died in a February 2020 incident.
2023年一家购物中心发生枪击事件导致三人死亡后，政府暂停了所有枪支进口，而这些进口枪支此前占持牌销售的绝大多数。
After three were killed in a 2023 mall shooting the government suspended all gun imports, which had accounted for the vast majority of licensed sales.
泰国枪支拥有量因自卫需求而增长。2024年盖洛普的一项调查显示，近三分之一的泰国公民担心在夜间独自走在自己居住的区域。射击运动日益流行以及政府的福利枪支计划也增加了枪支数量。
Thailand's gun ownership has grown through demand for self-defense. A 2024 Gallup survey showed nearly a third of Thai citizens feared walking alone at night in their neighborhood. The popularity of shooting as a sport and the government welfare gun scheme have also boosted the number of firearms.
但与之并行的是由未注册、走私和改装枪支组成的黑市——这些武器由所有者自行定制，通常是经过改装可发射实弹的复制品或空包弹枪，全部属于非法枪支。
But running parallel is a black market made up of unregistered, trafficked and converted guns -- arms customized by the owner, often replicas or blanks guns modified to fire live rounds -- all of which are illegal.
工厂工人里奇因该问题敏感而使用化名接受采访。他15岁时就获得了第一把黑市枪支，而法定最低年龄为20岁。
Factory worker Ricky, speaking under a pseudonym because of the sensitivity of the matter, obtained his first black-market gun at 15. The minimum legal age is 20.
里奇全身布满纹身，他最初加入帮派是为了在群体中获得尊重和地位。如今他已年近30岁，不再是帮派成员，但每次出门都会携带枪支，以在曼谷北部这个犯罪率较高的地区感到安全。
Initially it was because he had fallen in with gangs and wanted to gain respect and status among his group, said heavily tattooed Ricky. Now in his late 20s and no longer a gang member, he carries a firearm whenever he leaves the house to make him feel safe in an area just north of Bangkok with high crime.
泰国总理阿努廷·查恩维拉库尔在8月7日校园枪击事件发生后的几天内，要求官员们在两个月内确保枪支法律有所调整。
Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul gave officials two months to ensure changes in gun laws in the days after the Aug. 7 school shooting.
“（我们）这个社区里有个家伙，几乎什么东西都能找到。如果我想找某样特定的东西，只要给他发消息，大概一周内他就能弄到，”里基说，“甚至还能买到手榴弹。”尽管泰国平民被禁止在公共场合携带武器，但里基觉得自己别无选择，而且对警方也缺乏信任。
"There's a guy [in the neighborhood] who can find pretty much anything. If I want a particular one, I message him and within about a week he can find it," Ricky said. "You can even buy grenades." Though civilians in Thailand are banned from carrying a weapon in public, Ricky feels he has no choice and has little faith in the police.
“如果你问现在持枪的人是不是更多了，答案是肯定的，持枪的人多得多，”里基说，“如果我没有枪，其他人也没有枪，我会感觉更安全。”在曼谷市中心的一家咖啡馆里，衣着得体的IT从业者卡尼特·萨塔曼代表了泰国合法持枪的一面。如今已步入中年的卡尼特表示，自他小时候开始玩电子游戏以来，就对枪支充满热情。
"If you're asking whether more people carry guns now, yes. A lot more people carry them," Ricky said. "If I didn't have a gun, and other people didn't have guns either, I would feel safer." In a cafe in downtown Bangkok, smartly dressed IT worker Kanit Sataman represents the legal side of gun ownership in Thailand. Now middle-aged, Kanit said he has had a passion for guns ever since he started video gaming as a young boy.
40岁时，他合法购买了第一支枪，此后已收藏了12支。他最喜爱的是一支美国定制生产的Masterpiece Arms步枪，以及一支由新罕布什尔州SIG Sauer公司制造的手枪。警方在8月7日枪击事件发生地的学校进行现场调查时拍摄证据。“我从未把枪当作武器。对我来说，它就像一件玩具，”他说。
When he turned 40 he legally bought his first gun, and since then has amassed 12. His favorites are a custom-made Masterpiece Arms rifle from the U.S. and a pistol produced by New Hampshire-based SIG Sauer. Police officers photograph evidence during an on‑site investigation at the school hit by the Aug. 7 shooting. "I've never thought of the gun as a weapon. For me it's like a toy," he said.
卡尼特将枪支用于运动，在射击场进行射击，并参加实用射击比赛——参赛者需要在赛道上移动，尽可能快速而准确地击中目标。
Kanit uses his guns for sport, firing them at gun ranges and in practical shooting competitions, where participants move through a course trying to hit targets as quickly and accurately as possible.
他通过持牌卖家购买枪支，每次申请购买新枪的许可证时，都会接受所有必要的审查。
He buys his guns through licensed sellers and submits to all the required checks each time he applies for a permit to purchase another.
然而，尽管他是一位负责任的枪支所有者，如今却受到新实施的限制措施影响，其中包括禁止枪主将枪支带出家门前往射击场。
Yet despite being a responsible gun owner, he is now subject to the newly imposed restrictions that include a ban on owners taking guns out of their home to go to shooting ranges.
负责枪支许可的政府官员表示，在8月校园枪击事件后推出的这些措施非常严格。
The government official who oversees gun licensing said the measures introduced after the August school shooting are stringent.
“我在这个领域工作了[10]年，这些措施是迄今为止最严厉的，”他说。
"In the [10] years I've been working in this field, these measures are the most severe yet," he said.
在严打行动之前已经获得枪支许可证（每次购买新枪都需要许可证）的买家，仍然可以购买枪支，但必须在许可证六个月的有效期内完成购买。
Buyers who obtained a gun permit -- which is needed for every new purchase -- before the crackdown, can still buy a firearm but need to do so within the permit's six-month validity period.
在曼谷主要的民用枪支销售区萨米约特，枪支店主已将所有枪支从货架上撤下，以表明他们正在遵守新规定。
In Bangkok's main civilian firearm selling district of Samyot, gun shop owners have removed all firearms from the shelves to show they're complying with the new regulations.
“如你所见，我无法补货，也无法销售任何东西，但我仍然必须保持店铺营业，开着灯和空调，”一位不愿透露姓名的店主说。一名员工站在曼谷一家枪店的入口处，时间是8月17日。
"As you can see, I can't re-stock, I can't sell anything, but I still have to keep my shop open, my lights on and air conditioning running," said one shop owner, declining to be identified. An employee stands at the entrance of a Bangkok gun store on Aug. 17.
纳塔蓬·布帕拉马尼正坐在朋友店里，自严打行动以来，店内的展示橱窗就一直空着。
Nattapong Bupparamanee was sitting in his friend's shop where the display window behind has been empty since the crackdown.
他说，自己旁边的店铺在进口禁令实施两年后便已售罄库存，现在主要销售配件。“目前，我们的处境非常艰难，”他说。
He said his own shop next door ran out of stock two years after the import ban and now mainly sells accessories. "Right now, it's super-hard for us," he said.
他们以及《日经新闻》采访的其他经销商认为，他们正被不公平地针对，而这个问题主要存在于黑市。
They and other dealers Nikkei spoke to felt they were being unfairly targeted over a problem that mostly existed in the black market.
“许多暴力和犯罪都涉及地下流通的非法枪支，但管控措施却落在了遵纪守法的公民身上，”第一位店主说。
"Much of the violence and crime involves illegal guns circulating underground, but the controls are being placed on law-abiding citizens," said the first shop owner.
纳塔蓬警告称，限制合法供应可能会将买家推向其他渠道。“如果他们找不到合法渠道，或许就会转向非法渠道，”他说。一把枪支在泰国首都的一家枪店内陈列出售。
Nattapong warned that restricting the legal supply could push buyers elsewhere. "If they cannot find something legal, maybe they're going to turn to something illegal," he said. A firearm is displayed for sale at a gun shop in the Thai capital.
但负责监管枪支法规的政府官员表示，流通中的武器数量庞大，使得枪击事件的发生可能性更高。
But the government official involved in overseeing firearm regulations said the sheer number of weapons in circulation made gun violence all the more likely.
“无论枪支是合法还是非法，一旦进入家庭，随时都可能被使用，”他说。
"Whether a gun is legal or illegal, once it is in the home it is ready to be used," he said.
这项限制措施旨在遏制的一个重要非法武器来源，就是政府“福利枪支”计划的暂停。根据该计划，警察和政府官员有权以低于零售价50%至70%的价格购买枪支。
One important source of illegal arms the restriction aims to stop is the suspension of the government's welfare guns scheme. Under the scheme, police and government officials are entitled to buy guns at between 50% and 70% off the retail price.
工厂工人Ricky表示，在他所加入的一个聊天群组中，被挂牌出售的枪支中约有80%属于“福利枪支”。
Factory worker Ricky said of the guns being advertised for sale in a chat group of which he is a member, around 80% were welfare guns.
熟悉此事的人士称，“福利枪支”计划一直存在被滥用的情况，持牌人未经适当核查或交易记录，就将枪支转卖给朋友、亲属或其他人。
People familiar with the matter say the welfare guns program has been open to abuse, with license holders selling guns on to friends, relatives or others without the proper checks or transaction records.
负责枪支许可审批的一名政府雇员表示：“一些政府官员利用该计划以低于私人市场的价格购买枪支，然后将这些枪支用于地下或非法活动。”
"Some government officials take advantage of the scheme to buy guns more cheaply than on the private market and then use them for underground or illegal activities," said the government employee who oversees gun licensing.
他还说：“我们已经看到‘福利枪支’最终沦为非法枪支，或被出口到国外。”
"We have seen welfare guns end up as illegal firearms or be exported abroad," he said.
尽管这项任务充满困难，但这位政府消息人士称，现在正是行动的时候。
Despite the difficulty of the task, the government source said the time to act is now.
社交媒体和在线新闻的兴起意味着，过去可能鲜有报道的枪击事件，如今会传播到更广泛的受众面前。“每当我们看到类似事件时，都会引发公众恐慌，并损害政府的形象，”这位消息人士说。
The rise of social media and online news meant shootings that would have once gone comparatively unreported now spread to a wider audience. "Every time we see something like this, it sparks public alarm and affects the government's image," the source said.
8月初校园袭击事件发生三天后，一名前议员因财务纠纷在曼谷枪杀了一名省级官员。9月，一名警察在春武里府一所幼儿园内枪杀了在那里工作的妻子。8月7日枪击事件后，泰国警察在德布西伦暖武里学校内集合。
Three days after the school attack in early August a former MP shot dead a provincial official in Bangkok over a financial dispute. In September, a police officer shot dead his wife at a kindergarten in Chonburi where she worked. Thai police officers gather inside the Debsirin Nonthaburi School after the Aug. 7 shooting.
玛希隆大学的犯罪学家Trynh Phoraksa告诉《日经亚洲》，如果政府想要解决枪支问题，就不能仅仅停留在收紧法律层面。
Trynh Phoraksa, a criminologist at Mahidol University, told Nikkei Asia that if the government wants to solve its gun problem it needs to go beyond making laws stricter.
Trynh告诉《日经亚洲》：“我认为问题之一在于，泰国过去常常对重大枪击事件采取我所说的‘事件驱动型’应对方式。”
"I think one of the problems is that Thailand has often responded to major shootings with what I would call an event-driven approach," Trynh told Nikkei Asia.
“虽然发生了严重事件，公众担忧加剧，也出台了新的限制或执法措施，但根本性的制度未必会改变，”他说，“更根本的问题是，[枪支]许可证一旦签发之后会发生什么。”独立安全研究员迈克尔·皮卡德表示，由于枪支在泰国与身份地位及权力紧密相关，仅靠立法难以解决枪支拥有问题。
"A serious incident occurs, public concern increases, new restrictions or enforcement measures are introduced, but the underlying system does not necessarily change," he said "The more fundamental question is what happens after a [gun] license has been issued." Michael Picard, an independent security researcher, said gun ownership in Thailand was difficult to solve through legislation alone due to its close association with status and power.
9月3日，菲律宾圣拉斐尔的学生们在一次活跃枪手演练结束后高举手臂聚集在一起，此前该国刚刚发生多起校园枪击事件。
Students in San Rafael in the Philippines gather with their arms raised at the conclusion of an active-shooter drill on Sept. 3, following recent school shootings in the country.
不过，该国可以采取的一项措施是，通过提供宽恕政策或回购计划来减少流通中的枪支数量，例如菲律宾和澳大利亚的做法。尽管菲律宾的此类计划因存在各种漏洞而效果参半，但澳大利亚的宽恕计划已成功回收了数万支武器。
But one thing the country could do is reduce the number of guns in circulation by offering amnesties or buyback schemes like those in the Philippines and Australia. While programs in the Philippines are viewed by experts as having had mixed results so far due to various loopholes, Australia has succeeded in recovering tens of thousands of weapons in its amnesties. "It needs to be open-ended.
“这项计划需要长期开放。或许可以开展一次大规模行动，但之后也应定期推出宽恕政策。这是一个过程，是一项将非法枪支从流通中清除的长期努力，”皮卡德说。
Maybe one big campaign, but then periodic amnesties as well. It's a process. It's a long-term effort to get illicit guns out of circulation," Picard said.
一位参与监管枪支许可的泰国政府官员（姓名未透露）并不知有任何宽恕计划正在筹备中。但他承认，确实需要改变现有方法。
The unnamed Thai government official involved in overseeing gun licensing was not aware of any amnesty program in the works. But he acknowledged the need for a change in approach.
这位官员表示，政府的计划是“完善整个系统”，以便能够掌握流通中的枪支数量。
The government’s plan was to “seal the system,” so it could establish how many guns were in circulation, the official said.
“过去，我们没有解决根本原因，而是通过逮捕来处理问题。这次不同，”他说。
"In the past, we didn't tackle the root cause. We dealt with the problem at the end, through arrests." This time, it's different, he said.
“我们现在正努力让系统尽可能严密。”乔治·斯泰利斯为本文撰稿人。
"We're making the system as tight as possible now." George Styllis is a contributing writer.