市场正显现出与2010年代动荡时期的诸多相似之处——这预示着一场“大幅、厚重的抛售”即将来临，Longview Economics首席执行官兼首席市场策略师Chris Watling表示。“全球流动性正在收紧，且在许多地方显现出来，”Watling周四在CNBC的“Squawk Box Europe”节目中说道。他提到法国政府债务风险溢价上升及其与其他欧元区国家的利差扩大、美国CCC级公司债券和高收益信贷承压，以及股市某些板块的压力。
Markets are showing a lot of parallels with periods of turbulence in the 2010s — and that suggests a "big, chunky sell-off" is imminent, according to Chris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist at Longview Economics. "Liquidity is tightening up in the world, and it's showing up in lots of places," Watling told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Thursday. He cited the rising risk premium on French government debt and its spread with other euro zone nations, stress in CCC-rated U.S. corporate bonds and high-yield credit, and some areas of the stock market.
“这就像个高压锅，我认为每隔几年就会出现这种情况。通常发生在央行改变政策方向时，”Watling指出，近几个月全球已从降息转向加息。“我认为未来两到六个月内，风险资产将酝酿一场抛售，随时可能爆发，”他预测标普500指数将回调10%至20%左右。Watling表示，他看到当前与2018年、2015年和2011年有很强的可比性，当时“市场早期横盘震荡”，让人困惑不解。
"It's like a pressure cooker, and I think every few years we get this. And it generally happens when central banks change their direction of travel," Watling said, noting the global shift from interest rate cuts to rate hikes over the last few months. "I think we've got a two to six-month sell-off in in risk assets that's brewing and that's going to break any moment now," he said, forecasting a pullback of around 10 to 20% on the S & P 500 . Watling said he saw strong comparisons with 2018, 2015 and 2011 when the "market goes sideways" early in the year, causing confusion.
接着“市场广度崩塌”，涨势由越来越少的实体支撑——“然后砰的一声，市场大幅下跌。”“我认为我们正处于这种环境中。利率在上升。多头们说：‘别担心，有七只股票盈利增长惊人。’但现实是，一切都在一点点崩塌。多米诺骨牌效应已启动。所以我认为我们将看到一场大幅、厚重的抛售。”Watling指出，这将是一场“周期中段修正”而非衰退，他形容美国经济“状况良好”。
Then "breadth falls apart" as gains become fueled by a shrinking number of entities — "and then bang, the market sells off hard." "I think this is the kind of environment we're in. The rates are going up. The bulls are saying, 'Well, there's seven stocks with amazing earnings growth, don't worry about it.' But in reality, everything's falling bit by bit. The dominoes are going. So I think we'll see a big chunky sell-off."
他辩称，美国债券收益率上升主要反映了以人工智能为中心的资本支出热潮加速，以及企业债务发行激增，这将推动更强劲的增长。
This would be a "mid-cycle correction" rather than a recession, Watling noted, describing the U.S. economy as in "good shape." Rising U.S. bond yields are chiefly a reflection of the acceleration of the capex boom centered around artificial intelligence and a rapid increase in debt issuance by corporates set to drive stronger growth, he argued.
根据沃特林的说法，风险资产的抛售将重置利率预期，冲击经济，并使流动性重回系统。
A sell-off in risk assets would reset interest rate expectations, jolt the economy and bring liquidity back into the system, according to Watling.
标普500指数本周创下历史新高，无视加息、政府债券收益率走高带来的竞争、能源市场冲击，以及与美国和以色列在伊朗的战争相关的波动。
The S & P 500 hit a record high this week , defying rate hikes, competition from higher returns on government bonds, an energy market shock, and volatility associated with the U.S. and Israel's war in Iran.
但沃特林并非唯一发出即将到来回调警告的人，回调通常被定义为从近期高点下跌10%至20%。
But Watling is not the only person to flag a coming correction, generally defined as a 10% to 20% decline in value from a recent peak.
欧洲央行的经济学家在8月发布的一份报告中指出：“对过去技术革命的经济研究指向一个令人担忧的结论：当前股市估值出现回调的可能性很大。”
Economists at the European Central Bank published a report in August stating that "economic research on past technological revolutions points to a worrisome conclusion: a correction of current stock market valuations is likely."
他们将论点与人工智能影响扩散至经济几乎所有部门联系起来，这正如铁路、电力和互联网所发生的那样，最终导致投资者要求更高的风险溢价，从而压低价格。
They tied their argument to the spread of the impact of artificial intelligence to virtually all sectors of the economy, as happened with the railroads, electricity and the internet, which eventually causes investors to demand a higher risk premium that drives down prices.
他们补充道，这可能随后会出现反弹，但可能会让投资者面临风险敞口。沃特林强调了市场上一个可能提供对冲的领域。
This could be followed by a subsequent rebound, they added, but could leave investors exposed. Watling highlighted one area of the market that could provide a hedge.
“如果你看看欧元区的日常消费品板块，它不是最吸引人的板块，但其相对于大盘的估值从未如此便宜，”他告诉CNBC。
"If you look at euro zone consumer staples, it's not the sexiest sector out there, but its valuation relative to the market has never been cheaper," he told CNBC.
“这些股票极其不受青睐，深度遭抛售，当然它们不喜欢债券收益率上升。一旦这种债券收益率上升趋势打破，我认为你会发现这些地方实际上是未来几个月的良好避风港。”
"These stocks are deeply unloved, deeply beaten up, and of course they don't like rising bond yields. And once these sort of rising bond yields break, then I think you'll find that actually those sort of places are a good place to hide for a few months."