
再见,伯纳德·阿尔诺。 这位法国奢侈品巨头最近在彭博社的全球前十富豪榜中跌出榜单,这是今年路威酩轩(LVMH)股价下跌40%的可预见后果。 没有人会为此掉泪;他的财富仍然高达1312亿美元。 但作为名单中唯一剩余的欧洲人,而名单现在已被美国人完全占据,这感觉像是一个新时代的开始。
Au revoir, Bernard Arnault. The French luxury billionaire recently fell out of Bloomberg’s ranking of the world’s top 10 richest people, the predictable consequence of a 40% price drop in the shares of LMVH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE this year. Nobody will shed a tear; he’s still worth $131.2 billion. But as the last remaining European on a list now exclusively occupied by Americans, it feels like the start of a new era.
阿尔诺从富豪宝座的降级,当然是受到中国奢侈品市场不景气和中东战争的影响。 但这也是一个关于新兴富豪——人工智能圈——净资产膨胀的故事。 除了沃伦·巴菲特外,当前前十名全部是美国科技大佬,从全球第一的埃隆·马斯克到身披皮夹克的英伟达创始人黄仁勋。 今年迄今为止,前500名中约100位科技富豪的财富累计增长了8450亿美元(彭博数据)。 可惜的是,这些人似乎更喜欢穿休闲T恤、为末日做准备,而不是购买设计师品牌。
Arnault’s demotion from the podium of bling has of course been driven by luxury’s misfortunes in China and war in the Middle East. But it is also a story about the ballooning net worth of those on the way up: namely, the artificial intelligence crowd. With the sole exception of Warren Buffett, the current top 10 is a clean sweep for US tech bros, from planetary No. 1 Elon Musk to Nvidia Corp.’s leather-jacketed Jensen Huang. This year so far has been the best ever for the roughly 100 tech fortunes among the top 500, with their wealth up $845 billion, according to Bloomberg data. And unfortunately for Arnault, they seem to prefer informal T-shirts and prepping for the apocalypse over buying designer wear.
富豪榜像股市一样波动且充满泡沫。 但回顾过去14年,我认为这反映了全球经济的更根本转变。 早在2012年,Meta Platforms(当时仍是新上市公司Facebook)时,前十名富豪中有欧洲人,如Zara创始人阿曼西奥·奥特加和宜家创始人英格瓦尔·坎普拉德, alongside 微软的比尔·盖茨和甲骨文的拉里·埃里森。 即使欧洲的失业率创下纪录,零售和奢侈品大亨仍乘着全球消费需求和低通胀的浪潮前行。
Rich lists can be volatile and bubbly, like the stock market. But looking back over the past 14 years, I’d argue this reflects a more fundamental shift in the global economy. Back in 2012, when Meta Platforms Inc. was a newly public company called Facebook, the top 10 wealthiest included Europeans like Zara’s Amancio Ortega and IKEA’s Ingvar Kamprad alongside Bill Gates of Microsoft Corp. and Larry Ellison of Oracle Corp. Even as Europe’s record jobless rate bore the scars of crisis, retail and luxury tycoons rode a wave of global consumer demand and low inflation.
自那以后,科技在经济领域的影响力日益增强,而全球化贸易却出现了逆转——最明显的例子便是奢侈品行业:制造稀缺性和维持遥不可及价格的艺术,如今遭遇了关税、代际疲劳以及开始缩减消费的中国消费者。根据经济合作与发展组织(OECD)的估算,2013年至2023年间,信息与通信技术行业的发展速度几乎是整体经济的三倍,在此期间,全球十大科技巨头几乎完全以美国企业为主。
Since then, technology has become increasingly dominant economically while the globalization trade has reversed — most obviously in the case of luxury, where the art of creating scarcity and forever-out-of-reach prices has met tariffs, generational fatigue and a Chinese consumer who’s cutting back. According to estimates from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the information and communication technology sector grew almost three times faster than the wider economy between 2013 and 2023, during which time the top 10 became almost entirely US tech-centric.
正如任何阅读过德拉吉报告的人都知道的那样,科技正是欧洲的薄弱环节——从研发预算、初创企业融资到股市上市,ASML NV 是个例外。
And as any reader of the Draghi Report knows, tech is Europe’s weak spot, from research budgets to scale-up funding to going public on the stock market, ASML NV notwithstanding.
当然,当前人工智能财富热潮的速度和规模,并不仅仅取决于经济基本面。如果英伟达最昂贵的GPU价格超过一个铂金包,那也正是因为该公司占据了85%的市场份额和75%的利润率——这种竞争护城河,即便是LVMH也只能望尘莫及。当今科技初创企业惊人的资本消耗——例如SpaceX在AI芯片上豪掷400亿美元——表明这种资本主义模式要么狂野过度,要么已病入膏肓。
To be sure, the speed and scale of the current AI wealth boom is about more than economic fundamentals. If Nvidia’s most expensive GPU costs more than a Birkin bag, it’s also because the company has a market share of 85% and margins of 75%, which is the kind of competitive moat LVMH could only dream of having. The sheer capital burn of today’s tech startups, with SpaceX splurging $40 billion on AI chips, indicates a capitalism either wild or unwell.
法国前总统顾问阿兰·明斯(Alain Minc)在其新书中指出,人工智能带来的财富,源于对关键生产要素的控制、大语言模型的网络效应、股市炒作以及薄弱的公司治理。
Former French presidential advisor Alain Minc describes in a new book how AI riches are fueled by control of critical inputs, the network effects of large-language models, stock-market hype and poor governance.
然而,人工智能财富的激增也源于对生产率提升的迫切追求。全球出生率下降,使得原本劳动力充足、岗位稀缺的市场转变为劳动力短缺的局面。这意味着增长放缓,自动化的压力增大。经合组织估计,如果生产率不提升,人均GDP增长率可能从2006-2019年期间的1%几乎降至未来几十年平均0.6%。这也是美国与欧洲技术差距实际上也是经济差距的原因。法国银行去年的一项研究发现,过去二十年法国与美国之间的生产率差距几乎全部可以归因于技术部门的滞后。
Yet the AI wealth spurt is also driven by a desperate search for productivity gains. Birth rates are falling around the world, turning a market where workers are plentiful and jobs scarce into one where labor is in short supply. That means less growth and more pressure to pull the lever of automation. The OECD estimates that without a lift to productivity, GDP per capita growth could be almost halved from the 1% in the 2006-2019 period to 0.6% on average over the next few decades. This is why the US-Europe tech gap is also an economic one. A Bank of France study last year found that almost all of the productivity gap between France and the US over the last two decades could be explained by a lag in the tech sector.
并非全是坏事。拥有欧洲血统的亿万富翁仍在不断涌现,例如Hugging Face的三位法国创始人。但这通常只有在他们先在美国工作并筹集资金之后才会发生。而且美国技术人员的致富也离不开欧洲的帮助。美国的云计算公司如亚马逊在欧洲拥有约70%的市场份额,每年约有3000亿欧元(3360亿美元)的储蓄流向美国,而不是用于国内增长。
It’s not all bad. Billionaires with European roots are still being minted, such as Hugging Face’s three French founders. But this usually occurs only after time spent working and raising funds in the US. And if American techies are getting richer, it's with Europeans’ help. Europe is where US cloud companies like Amazon.com Inc. enjoy a 70% market share and where approximately €300 billion ($336 billion) of savings every year flow to the US instead of funding domestic growth. (At least they occasionally return the favor: Jeff Bezos’ yacht was built in the Netherlands and his wedding last year was in Venice.)
(至少他们偶尔会回报一下:杰夫·贝索斯的游艇在荷兰建造,他去年的婚礼在威尼斯举行。)在一个富人越来越富、超级富豪更是飞速增长的世界里,将会有大量人被抛在后面——从被机器取代工作的劳动者到难以跟上新出现的万亿富豪阶层的税务部门。结果可能会很混乱,从政治反弹到残酷的市场修正。但AI黄金时代的巨头们超越欧洲最富有人群,也表明整个地区因依赖外部技术而错失机会。
In a world where the rich are getting richer, and the very, very rich even more so, there will be a lot of people left behind, from workers whose jobs will be replaced to tax authorities struggling to keep up with a new trillionaire class. The result may be messy, from political backlash to a brutal market correction. But the overtaking of Europe’s richest by the barons of the AI gilded age also points to entire regions missing out due to their dependence on outside tech.
随着亿万富翁的接力棒从一个榨取租金的行业转向另一个,显而易见,技术已成为新的奢侈品。
With the passing of the billionaire baton from one rent-extracting industry to another, it’s clear that technology is the new luxury good.