诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼指出，法国正面临潜在的债务危机，对欧洲央行而言，该国或许已沦为“规模过大而难以救助”的国家。
France faces a potential debt crisis and may have become "too big to save" for the European Central Bank, according to Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman.
由于教育经费不足引发的学生抗议活动仍在法国持续发酵。与此同时，法国总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科努在推动2027年度预算案时遭遇重重阻力——该预算案旨在实施数百亿美元的财政紧缩措施。
Student protests over underfunding in education continue to rock France, as Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu faces a struggle to pass a contentious 2027 budget that seeks to impose tens of billions of dollars' worth of fiscal consolidation.
克鲁格曼在周四发布的一篇Substack博客文章中称，法国正走在“财政不可持续的道路上”：政府债务利息负担日益加重，巨额预算赤字更导致其债务占GDP比重持续攀升。
Writing in a Substack blog post on Thursday, Krugman said France was on a "fiscally unsustainable path," facing mounting interest on its government debt while exacerbating its high debt-to-GDP ratio with large budget deficits.
他认为，随着人口老龄化加剧，法国未能调整相对较低的退休年龄，这也是一个关键问题。
A key issue is the country's failure to address its relatively low retirement age as the population ages, he argued.
“法国使用欧元作为货币，因此不难想象市场信心丧失将如何演变为一场严重的危机……2009至2012年间，我们曾在希腊、葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利目睹过类似情形，”克鲁格曼写道。他提到的正是当年引发欧洲央行大规模干预的主权债务危机。
"France's reliance on the euro means that it's all too easy to see how this loss of confidence could turn into an ugly crisis... We saw this movie in 2009-2012, first in Greece, then in Portugal, Spain and Italy," Krugman wrote, referring to the Sovereign Debt Crisis that spurred extensive intervention by the ECB.
“起初，投资者停止购买欧元区国家的债券，这引发了政府可能违约的担忧——毕竟政府无力支付债务利息及本金。对违约的恐惧进而引发资本大规模外流，这又进一步加剧违约风险与利率水平，形成恶性循环。”克鲁格曼指出，当年欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉向市场承诺“将不惜一切代价”防止各国违约，这一承诺之所以能被广泛接受，很大程度上是因为南欧各国随后实施了“大规模开支削减措施”。
Loading chart... "First, investors stop buying a euro-area nation's bonds, raising the specter that the government will be forced into default because it simply doesn't have the cash to pay interest and principal on its debt. Fear of default then leads to even more capital flight, which increases fears of default and the interest rate, and the vicious circle deepens." The ECB's famous 2012 reassurance to markets by then-president Mario Draghi that it would do "whatever it takes" to avoid national defaults was accepted in large part because southern European nations engaged in "massive spending cuts," Krugman noted.
他补充道，只要法国继续偏离财政稳健的轨道，为其提供救助对欧洲央行而言不仅“代价高昂”，还会引发巨大的政治争议。
Bailing France out would be "extremely expensive" for the ECB and politically contentious as long as the country is moving "even further from fiscal responsibility," he continued.
“法国或许已经从‘大而不能倒’的状态转变为‘大而难以挽救’的状态。简而言之，我们很容易设想出法国爆发危机后的糟糕局面——这种危机必将引发欧洲内部的严重分裂，”他写道。法国政府必须“拿出可信的举措”周五在接受CNBC采访时，前欧洲央行行长让-克洛德·特里谢敦促法国政界人士寻求妥协，以降低这个欧盟第二大经济体的财政赤字。
"France may have crossed the line from too big to fail to too big to save. In short, it's all too easy to describe a really ugly scenario for a French crisis that would be extremely divisive within Europe," he wrote. French government must 'deliver something that will be credible' Speaking to CNBC on Friday, former ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet urged politicians to find compromise to bring down the deficit of the EU's second-biggest economy.
曾在2004年至2011年间执掌欧洲央行的特里谢表示：“现在轮到法国政府和议会采取行动了，他们任重道远。”
Trichet, who led the ECB from 2004 to 2011, said: "The ball is in the camp of the French government and parliament, and they have hard work to do."
这位前法国央行行长对CNBC的《欧洲财经早班车》节目说道：“当然，一旦出现局势动荡，可用的应对工具其实很多，且过往经验证明它们都十分有效。我本人在任期间也经历过类似时期。”这些工具包括欧洲稳定机制；在极端情况下还可动用2022年正式确立但尚未使用的欧洲央行传导保护工具（TPI），该工具旨在欧元区出现市场割裂时维护市场稳定。
"Of course, if there is destabilization, the instruments are very numerous and proved in the past to be very effective. And I have known, of course, such a period in my own time," the former Bank of France governor told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe." Such instruments include the European Stability Mechanism and, at the most extreme end, the ECB's Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), an as-yet unused measure finalized in 2022 that is intended to ensure market stability in times of fragmentation in the euro area.
特里谢指出，若要启用这些工具，法国政府必须向欧洲央行求助，但目前法国官方坚称并无此需求。
Intervention would require the French government to reach out to the ECB to ask for help, which it currently states is not needed, Trichet said.
“我对法国所有政治势力都有建议：众所周知，目前正值总统选举前的政治筹备期，局势错综复杂，但我希望各方都能在此关头承担起责任。”
"My recommendation to all political sensitivities in France, and you know that the situation is complex in terms of political preparation for the presidential election, but I would ask all of them to be responsible in those circumstances."
“无论立场如何，所有政治势力都必须明白：如今正是法国作为重要市场参与者展现责任感的时机。”他补充道：“我呼吁各方尽可能高效地开展磋商，拿出切实可信的举措。当然，这也是启用传导保护工具的前提条件之一。”
"All political sensitivities, whatever they are, they have to understand that it is about time to prove that France, the market player, that they are responsible." "I call on them, of course, to be as, I would say, effective in their discussion as possible and prove that they can deliver something which would be credible. That, of course, is one of the conditions to activate TPI," he said.
特里谢表示，他在主权债务危机期间的亲身经历表明：“首先必须先自救，因为如果你无法让市场参与者、投资者和储户相信你的可信度，我们就不可能取得成功。”他补充道：“当然，还必须让本国民众确信国家正朝着正确的方向前进。这一点不言而喻。据我理解，这正是法国央行行长以及法国政府的信念。”
Trichet said his own experience during the Sovereign Debt Crisis showed that "you first have to help yourself, because we cannot win if you are not yourself convincing market participants, investors, and savers that you are credible." "Of course, you have to get the country convincing itself that it goes in the right direction. That goes without saying. It is the conviction, if I understand well, of the governor of Banque de France and of the French government," he added.