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如何不驯服一个失控的世界How Not to Tame an Out-of-Control World

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近,一位敏锐的采访者问我,会选择哪首音乐来概括我们所处的时代。很遗憾,我选择了陈词滥调的答案——瓦格纳的作品,尽管瓦格纳的天才并不在于对事物进行总结。离开采访现场时,一个更好的答案浮现在我的脑海中。

A clever interviewer recently asked me which piece of music I would choose to sum up our times. I am afraid I opted for the clichéd answer of Wagner’s , even though Wagner’s genius did not extend to summing things up. As I left the interview a better answer came to mind.

Joy Division乐队的歌曲似乎触及了我们这个失控时代的本质:那句“她又失控了”的催眠式重复;“她眼中充满混乱,一切尽在其中”以及“那个告诉她何时何地该行动的声音”等阴郁的歌词;而在现场表演的视频里,主唱伊恩·柯蒂斯令人不安、近乎癫狂的挥舞手臂和半闭双眼的舞蹈更是触目惊心。柯蒂斯患有严重的癫痫,23岁时在自家客厅上吊自杀。

Joy Division’s seems to go to the heart of our out-of-control times: the hypnotic repetition of the phrase “she’s lost control again;” sinister lines about “confusion in her eyes that says it all” and “the voice that told her when and where to act;” and, in videos of the live performance, lead singer Ian Curtis’ disturbing, demented arm-waving dancing and half-closed eyes. Curtis, a severe epileptic, hung himself in his sitting room at the age of 23.

看看近期的一些新闻标题。唐纳德·特朗普在联合国的一次演讲中威胁要“彻底摧毁”伊朗,而联合国本应是一座和平的殿堂。弗拉基米尔·普京则谈论使用“战略”核武器来结束乌克兰的僵局;与此同时,比尔·盖茨表示,如果人工智能落入坏人手中,可能会导致“十亿人丧生”。在法国,学生正在焚烧自己的学校以及任何能找到的东西。在德国,极右翼政党“选择德国党”在全国民意调查中领先。

Consider some recent headlines. Donald Trump threatens to “annihilate” Iran in a speech to the United Nations, constructed as a temple to peace. Vladimir Putin talks about using “strategic” nuclear weapons to end the impasse in Ukraine; meanwhile, tBill Gates says that AI has the potential to cause “a billion deaths” if it gets into the wrong hands. In France, school children are burning down their schools and anything else they can lay their hands on. In Germany, the far-right AfD leads in nationwide opinion polls.

最具情绪冲击力的政治问题都聚焦于“控制”这一主题,或者说控制的缺失。难民潮表明我们已经失去了对国界的控制。零星犯罪泛滥则表明我们已经失去了对街道的控制。而天空中的一幕悲剧——一名失控的飞行员试图劫持一架飞往以色列的飞机,使其从14000英尺的高空坠向地面——更强化了人们对航空旅行的最深恐惧。

The most emotive political problems focus on the question of control or the lack of it. A tide of refugees suggests that we have lost control of our borders. An epidemic of petty crime suggests that we have lost control of our streets. A drama in the sky, when a rogue pilot tried to seize control of an Israel-bound plane, plunging it 14,000 feet toward the earth, reinforces everybody’s darkest fears of air travel.

我们或许可以争论,如今的世界是否比1962年的古巴导弹危机或1973年的阿拉伯石油禁运时期更加失控。但今天这个充满喧嚣与娱乐的新闻循环,加剧了我们对局势失控的感知:各种平台不断向我们推送来自全球各地的灾难片段,片刻不停。而这种感受又反过来影响了我们对真实事件的判断:英国人坚信自己正处在一场犯罪浪潮之中,尽管谋杀等最严重犯罪的案件数量实际上正在下降。

It is possible to debate whether the world is more out of control today than it was during, say, the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis or the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. But today’s all-singing and all-dancing news cycle contributes to our feeling that things are spinning out of control: Competing platforms engulf us with snippets of disasters from across the planet without a moment’s pause. And this feeling casts a reverse halo over real events: The British are convinced that we are amid a crime epidemic even though incidents of the most serious crimes such as murder are in decline.

当当地的特斯科超市不得不安装加固玻璃屏风来保护员工免受无赖骚扰时,谁还会花时间思考谋杀统计数据呢?

Who bothers to reflect on murder statistics when the local Tesco has been forced to put up a reinforced glass screen to protect its staff from yobs?

如何在失控的世界中重新掌控局势,正是全球政治的核心问题。然而,针对这一难题的三种最流行答案不仅错误,而且适得其反——它们营造出一种控制的假象,同时却加剧了失控的现实。

The question of how to regain control in an out-of-control world is at the center of global politics. But the three most popular answers to the conundrum are not just wrong but counterproductive, offering the illusion of control while exacerbating the opposite.

所有强人统治者都是通过诉诸我们最原始的生存本能而登上权力之巅的:即崇拜“阿尔法猿”,以抵御内部混乱和外部威胁。普京正是这种统治风格最早且最彻底的践行者:2000年,面对厌倦了叶利钦时代混乱的俄罗斯民众,他以“法治独裁”为口号赢得支持;此后,他效仿彼得大帝,承诺收复俄罗斯所谓的祖先领土。

Strongmen all come to power by appealing to our most primal instinct: embracing the alpha ape to protect us from internal disorder and external threat. Putin is both the earliest and most relentless exponent of this style of government: In 2000, he appealed to Russians, who were sick of the chaos of the Yeltsin years, with the slogan “dictatorship of law;” since then, he has channeled Peter the Great with his pledges to reclaim Russia’s supposedly ancestral lands.

然而,在所有强人向公民承诺秩序的地方,他们最终带来的却是截然相反的结果。俄罗斯人极度恐惧自己会被强行征入军队,然后被派往乌克兰的绞肉机中。非白种裔美国人则面临被美国移民和海关执法局(ICE)拘捕的风险。霍尔木兹海峡及其周边地区也危机四伏。强人主导的世界无疑比基于规则的全球秩序更加动荡无序,尤其因为强人往往极不擅长控制自己的欲望。

But everywhere that strongmen have promised their citizens order, they have delivered the opposite. Russians are terrified that they will be press-ganged into the army and dispatched to the meat grinder in Ukraine. Non-White Americans run the risk of being grabbed up by ICE. The Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding regions are rife with risks. The world of the strong men is undoubtedly more volatile and disorderly than the world of the rules-based global order, not least because strong men are so bad at controlling their own appetites.

面对失控局面,自由主义者的解决方案是增加更多的规则与法规。欧盟(EU)目前已有近2万项生效的立法,不仅影响成员国,也波及任何希望与该贸易集团进行贸易的实体。在美国,《联邦法规汇编》已从1970年的近40万限制性文字膨胀到如今的超过100万字。英国则有超过90个监管机构。然而,这种法律和法规的激增非但没有增强人们的掌控感,反而常常适得其反。

The liberal solution to loss of control is to multiply rules and regulations. The European Union (EU) has nearly 20,000 legislative acts in force, which affect not just member states but anyone who wants to trade with the bloc. In the US, the Code of Federal Regulations has metastasized from almost 400,000 restrictive words in 1970 to more than one million today. The UK has more than 90 regulatory bodies. But rather than increasing people’s sense of control, this multiplication of laws and regulations often does the opposite.

第三种解决方案是退出公共领域,专注于改善个人生活。每个周六或周日清晨,当我带狗去克拉帕姆公园散步时,总会注意到大量正在锻炼或跑步的年轻人。《今日心理学》杂志建议我们:“当生活感觉失控时,就专注于自身。”但这种做法的明显问题是,如果理智的人退出公共领域,那么管理公共事务的就只剩下狂热分子和蠢货了。

A third solution is to retreat from the public sphere and focus on improving your own lives. When I take my dogs for a walk on Clapham Common early on a Saturday or Sunday morning, I am struck by the crowds of young people who are working out or going for a run. “When life feels out of control,” Psychology Today advises us, “focus on yourself.”The obvious problem with this approach is that, if sensible people leave the public sphere, the only people left running it will be fanatics and fools.

这种“私人秩序、公共混乱”的问题,正是J.K.加尔布雷思提出的“私人富裕、公共贫困”现象的现代版本。另一个更微妙的问题是,如果你在工作中沦为毫无自主性的机器,被迫一生服从上司的命令——尤其是当你的上司是人工智能而非人类时——那么对个人生活的掌控所带来的益处也将十分有限。

This private order/public chaos problem is the modern version of J.K. Galbraith’s private affluence/public squalor. A more subtle problem is that exercising control over your personal life is of only limited benefit if you are reduced to an automaton at work, forced to spend your life obeying the diktats of your manager, particularly if your manager is an AI rather than a human.

鉴于我们周围充斥着如此多的混乱,说“条条道路通混乱”其实很容易。更难的是,要指出一条通往更可持续秩序的道路。这时,另一个悖论或许能帮上忙:有时,获得控制的最佳方式恰恰是放松控制。如果你相信人们会做出正确的选择,而不是试图对他们的每一个举动进行微观管理,那么大多数情况下,他们不仅会做出正确的选择,而且还会心甘情愿、甚至兴高采烈地去做。

It is easy to pronounce that all roads lead to chaos given the amount of chaos that surrounds us. What is more difficult is to point ahead to a more sustainable order. Here it helps to summon up another paradox: sometimes the best way to gain control is to loosen control. If you trust people to do the right thing rather than trying to micromanage their every movement, more often than not they will not only do the right thing, but do it willingly and indeed cheerfully.

这种做法或许意味着,在我们这个厌恶风险的社会中,我们必须容忍比平时更多的错误。但与此同时,它也将释放出那些因循守旧和繁文缛节往往压抑的创造力,而这种回报将远远弥补那些错误。

This approach might involve putting up with more mistakes than we are used to in our risk-averse culture. But that will be more than compensated for by unleashing the creativity that compliance and procedure tend to suppress.

人工智能时代的到来,使得放松自上而下控制的必要性变得尤为紧迫。人工智能可以通过两种不同的方式重塑工作:一种是帮助管理者更无情地微观管理员工,监控他们的一举一动,甚至让AI代理充当“领跑者”;另一种则是赋予员工更多自主权,让他们能够更具创造力地完成工作。第一种方式在技术层面相当于政治中的“强人统治”模式。

The dawning age of AI makes the case for loosening top-down control particularly urgent. AI can be used to reorganize work in two different ways: to help managers to micromanage workers more ruthlessly, monitoring their every move and even employing AI agents to act as pacesetters; or instead, to empower the workers to do their jobs more creatively. The first approach is the tech-equivalent of the strongman approach to politics.

它虽然能带来即时控制,但也可能引发威胁社会稳定的不满情绪。而第二种方式则会削弱短期控制,但由于它让员工对自己的生活拥有更多掌控权,因此更有可能促进社会和谐。

It offers immediate control but may well unleash the kind of discontent that could threaten social stability. The second approach reduces short-term control but, by giving workers more control over their own lives, is more likely to promote social harmony.

近几十年来,自由派面临的核心思想问题一直是“自由”。而今天的核心问题则是“控制”:我们如何才能在不助长强人政治、用法规窒息社会或剥夺工作所有魅力的前提下,找到解决失控问题的方案?在控制时代,强人天然占据优势,正如在自由时代,自由派(“liberal”一词直接源自拉丁语“liberalis”,意为“属于自由之人的”)拥有天然优势一样。

The central intellectual problem for liberals in recent decades has been freedom. The central problem today is control: How can we produce solutions to the problem of losing control without either empowering strongmen, strangling society in regulations or robbing work of all its charm. The natural advantage in the age of control lies with strong men just as the natural advantage in the age of freedom lay with liberals (the word “liberal” comes directly from the Latin “liberalis,” meaning “of a free person).

但自由派终于开始适应新时代了。像旧金山市长丹尼尔·卢里这样的中间派市长,在恢复街头秩序方面取得了成功。像丹麦社会民主党联盟这样的中间派政府,正在应对失控的边境问题。而中间派思想家们则聚焦于“控制”这一难题,例如莎拉·奥康纳的著作就警告了将人工智能用于把人变成机器人的危险,克莱尔·艾恩斯利的著作也将于下月出版。

But liberals are finally adjusting to new times. Centrist mayors such as San Francisco’s Daniel Lurie are enjoying success restoring order to the streets. Centrist governments such as Denmark’s Social Democratic Coalition are addressing out-of-control borders. And centrist thinkers are zeroing in on the problem of control in books such as Sarah O’Connor’s which warns about the dangers of employing AI to turn people into robots and, Claire Ainsley’s , which comes out next month.

过去那些糟糕的控制问题解决方案,让我们不得不长期忍受伊恩·柯蒂斯所说的“行走在毫无出路的边缘”。我们必须在为时已晚之前,从这一边缘退后一步。

Past dismal solutions to the problem of control have forced us to live Ian Curtis’s words for far too long and walk “on the edge of no escape.”We must step back from the edge before it is too late.