上个月一个周五的下午，维多利亚州国家党领袖丹尼·奥布赖恩正在自己所在的选区内张贴宣传牌。途中，他在普翁附近遇到一群牛挡住了去路。
On a Friday afternoon last month, Victorian Nationals leader Danny O'Brien was driving around his electorate putting up corflutes when he came across a herd of cows blocking a road near Poowong.
在等待牛群散去的间隙，奥布赖恩开始与赶牛的那名女子聊起政治话题。
As he waited for them to pass, O'Brien began talking politics with the woman herding them.
据他描述，女子告诉他“喜欢橙色”——这暗指“一国党”；她还表示“是时候做出改变了”。奥布赖恩则回应称，把票投给该国党有可能让工党借此机会在中间地带赢得胜利。女子沉思片刻后便去追赶牛群了。
He says she told him she "liked orange" – a reference to One Nation– and that it was "time to shake things up". O'Brien replied that voting for the party could risk giving Labor a path to victory "through the middle". She mulled it over, then chased after the cows.
当晚，奥布赖恩收到了那名女子的邮件，她主动提出愿意在自己家位于交通要道旁的牧场上为国家党竖立宣传牌。
That night, an email arrived from the woman offering to host one of O'Brien's signs on the family paddock beside a busy road.
奥布赖恩表示，正是这类对话对他的政党在维多利亚州农村地区遏制一国党的崛起至关重要。
It's these sorts of conversations, O'Brien says, that are crucial for his party in countering One Nation's rise in regional Victoria.
目前，国家党在维多利亚州议会下院拥有9个席位——2022年大选中他们从无党派人士手中夺得了3个席位，这是该党自1943年以来的最佳成绩。奥布赖恩将这一成绩归功于候选人选拔机制：他说该党维多利亚州分部如今已能熟练发掘那些在当地颇具知名度、具备群众基础的“本土领军人物”，并成功将“国家党”的品牌形象与他们联系起来。
The Nationals currently hold nine seats in the Victorian parliament's lower house – having picked up three seats off independents at the 2022 election – its best result since 1943 O'Brien credits the result to its candidate selection – he says the Victorian branch of the party have become skilled at identifying "local champions" with a preexisting profile and "attaching the Nationals brand" to them.
“人们常说我们不过是一群对维多利亚州乡村地区满怀热忱的无党派人士组成的松散团体，”他说，“我们的立场并非单纯偏向左翼或右翼。”本次选举中，国家党希望保住现有席位，同时把目标瞄准雅辛塔·艾伦原先所在的本迪戈东区——该党已推举深受当地民众喜爱的酒吧老板安德鲁·莱斯利恩作为候选人；此外他们还计划争夺目前由工党掌控的本迪戈西区和里彭选区。
"It's often been said we're a loose collection of independents that share that passion for rural and regional Victoria," he says. "It's not necessarily about left or right." At this election, the party hopes to hold it's exisiting seats while targeting Jacinta Allan's former seat of Bendigo East – where they've preselected popular local pub owner Andrew Lethlean – as well as Labor-held Bendigo West and Ripon.
然而近期，政治格局发生了剧变。民调显示，一国党在全州的支持率维持在20%左右，在农村地区这一比例甚至更高。
But recently, the political landscape has been upended. Polls show One Nation's vote is hovering about 20% statewide – with support even higher in regional areas.
今年6月泄露的维多利亚州工党内部民调显示，国家党在11月的州选举中极有可能遭遇惨败。另一项由工会联合会委托进行的民调则显示，国家党至少会失去三个席位，这些席位将被波琳·汉森的政党夺走。
Victorian Labor's internal polling leaked in June showed the Nationals could face a wipeout at November's state election. Another poll, commissioned by Trades Hall, showed the Nationals losing at least three seats to Pauline Hanson's party.
在联邦层面，“一国党”在法勒选区补选中从联盟党手中赢得了首个下议院席位，此后支持率持续攀升。最新的《卫报》与Essential联合民调显示，该党的首要投票率已升至25%。这一数值超过了自由党-国家党联盟有史以来最低的首要投票率22%，也仅略低于工党的29%。
Federally, One Nation won its first lower house seat from the Coalition at the Farrer byelection and has continued to ascend, with the latest Guardian Essential poll showing its primary vote had climbed to 25%. This was ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on it's lowest-ever primary vote of 22% and not far behind Labor's 29%.
“如今已不存在所谓的‘安全选区’了，说实话，这种情况已经持续很久了，”奥布赖恩说道。
"There are no safe seats and frankly, they haven't been for a long time," O'Brien says.
米尔德拉选区的国家党议员杰德·本汉姆则直言不讳：“‘一国党’绝对是我们面临的最大威胁。这甚至与候选人无关——候选人其实无关紧要，现在关键的是这个政党本身的品牌影响力。”“人们希望能继续留在这里生活”辛迪·马德利是惠灵顿郡的郡长，该郡与奥布赖恩所代表的吉普斯兰南部选区范围重叠。她表示，由于当地城镇赖以生存的产业正在迅速发生变化，整个地区正处于“动荡状态”。
The Nationals MP for Mildura, Jade Benham, is more blunt: "One Nation are 100% our biggest threat. "It's not even about the candidate. The candidate is kind of inconsequential. It's the brand now." 'People want to be able to stay here' Cindy Madeley is the mayor of Wellington Shire, which overlaps with O'Brien's electorate of Gippsland South. She says the region is in a "state of flux", as industries its towns once relied on rapidly change.
她举例称，塞勒镇“若没有石油与天然气产业，根本不会有如今的模样”；如今埃索澳大利亚公司正着手拆除其设在近海的一半基础设施。在亚拉姆镇，一家木材加工厂在圣诞节前关闭，由于维多利亚州实施了原生林采伐禁令，其他工厂只能从塔斯马尼亚进口木材。虽然当地有计划开发海上风电项目，但马德利指出，目前尚不清楚当地社区能从中获得多少实际益处。
She points to Sale, a town "that would not exist in the way it does without the oil and gas industry", now watching Esso Australia decommission half its infrastructure hosted off the coast In Yarram, a timber mill closed before Christmas, while others are importing Tasmanian timber as a consequence of Victoria's native forest logging ban. There are plans for offshore wind, but it remains unclear how much the local community will benefit, she says.
“我们和其他人一样，也担心生活成本上涨、利率上升、道路与医院设施不足等问题；但若从偏远地区的角度来考量，这些难题就变得更加棘手了，”马德利说道。
"We're worried about the things that everyone else is worried about – cost of living, interest rate rises roads and hospitals – but when you add the regional lens to it, things become just that little bit harder," Madeley says.
“人们希望自己能留在这里，也希望他们的孩子能留在这里。他们只希望情况能变得更好。”对汉森来说，“更好”意味着回归一个已经逝去的时代。上个月，她在莫韦尔承诺要叫停新的输电线路和可再生能源项目，维持维多利亚州最大的燃煤发电厂继续运行，并取消对核能的禁令。上周，该党还承诺恢复伐木业。该党未回应参与本文采访的请求。
"People want to be able to stay here and for their kids to stay here. They just want things to get better." For Hanson, better means a return to a bygone era. Last month, she was in Morwell pledging to halt new transmission lines and renewable energy projects, keep Victoria's largest coal plant operating and lift the ban on nuclear energy. Last week, the party also committed to bring back logging It did not respond to a request to participate in this piece.
《卫报》澳大利亚版在访问南吉普斯兰期间，并未发现“一国党”的任何竞选材料，也未发现其有大规模地面竞选活动的迹象。唯一例外的是，在特拉拉贡王子公路沿线格林菲尔德的酒店里，出现了一面看似由人工智能生成的横幅，上面画着一只拳击袋鼠、乌鲁鲁和汉森的笑脸，并配上了“一面旗帜，一个声音”的口号。
Guardian Australia didn't spot any One Nation campaign material or evidence of a significant ground campaign during its visit to South Gippsland, with the exception of a seemingly AI-generated banner at Greenfield's hotel on the Princes Highway in Traralgon, which featured a boxing kangaroo, Uluru and a smiling image of Hanson alongside the slogan "one flag, one voice".
目前尚不清楚这面由精心布置的灯光照亮的横幅由谁负责，但一位当地居民对此感到自豪，他说：“这面横幅已经被拆下四次，但我们一直在重新挂上去。”皮尔斯代尔的养牛户杰夫·古奇表示，汉森的言论吸引了一些他的朋友。
It was not clear who was responsible for the banner, which was illuminated by carefully placed lights, but one local resident spoke proudly of it, saying: "She has been taken down four times, but we keep putting her back up." Pearsondale cattle farmer Geoff Gooch says Hanson's rhetoric has appealed to some of his friends.
古奇说：“我有几个朋友觉得她很棒，但他们也听《博尔特报告》——所以这两者之间有明显关联。”
"I've got a few friends that think she's wonderful but they also listen to the Bolt Report – so there's a direct correlation there," Gooch says.
他表示，尽管汉森可能会提出一些“听起来像好主意”的提议，但她所在政党的政策并不切实际。他说，澳大利亚不能继续依赖煤炭，“可再生能源是不可避免的”，不过这一转型“必须以合理的方式进行”。同时，“一国党”的移民计划将损害依赖季节性工人的农业和乳制品行业。
He says while Hanson might propose something that "sounds like a good idea", her party's policies aren't practical. He says Australia cannot keep relying on coal and that "renewables are inevitable", though the transition "has to be done sensibly", while One Nation's immigration plans would hurt the agricultural and dairy industries that rely on seasonal workers.
古奇说：“如果人们投票支持他们，说明他们没有从大局出发考虑问题。”
"If people vote for them, they're not looking at the bigger picture," Gooch says.
但对于康恩来说，一国党的移民言论引起了共鸣，尽管他仍未决定11月投票给谁。康恩是一位退休人员，不愿透露姓氏，他作为“10英镑移民”移居澳大利亚，并参与了包括澳大利亚高等法院、西门大桥和雪山工程在内的重大基础设施项目。
But for Con, a retiree who would not provide his surname and who migrated to Australia as a 10-pound pom and worked on major infrastructure projects including the high court of Australia, the West Gate Bridge and the Snowy Mountains scheme, One Nation's immigration rhetoric resonates, even though he remains undecided on who to vote for in November.
“如果我买一个能容纳500头牛的农场，我不会买1000头牛进来，”他说。
"If I buy a farm to accommodate 500 cattle, I don't go buying 1,000 of them," he says.
康恩在塞尔的一个公交车站接受《卫报》采访时表示，虽然他在1990年代不相信汉森，但“她当时说的每句话现在都应验了”。
Con, speaking to the Guardian at a bus stop in Sale, says while he didn't believe Hanson in the 1990s, "everything she was saying then has come true".
“关于可再生能源，感觉像是一场内战”——安娜贝尔·克利兰是维多利亚州东北部尤罗亚选区的国家党议员。她在1月毁灭性的丛林大火期间声名鹊起，带领社区应对灾害，而她自己的家庭损失了1000头牲畜。她说，选区内的民众仍然“深感愤怒”——这种愤怒不仅源于丛林大火，还延伸至墨尔本与维多利亚州偏远地区之间日益扩大的生活质量差距。
'It feels like a civil war regarding renewables' Annabelle Cleeland is the Nationals MP for Euroa in Victoria's north-east. She shot to prominence during January's devastating bushfires, leading her community's response as her own family lost 1,000 livestock She says people in the electorate remain "deeply angry" – and that it extends beyond the bushfires to a growing divide between the quality of life in Melbourne and regional Victoria.
“我认识一些人，他们叫了救护车，但救护车从来没来……我们找不到足病医生，找不到语言治疗师，我们不能在自己的社区分娩。灾难来临时我们没有任何保护，”她说。
"I know of people who have called for an ambulance and they never turned up … we can't get a podiatrist, we can't get a speech therapist, we can't give birth in our communities. We have no protection through a disaster," she says.
随着维多利亚州日益恶化的道路系统成为即将到来的选举中的关键议题之一，克利兰表示，国家党“在坑洼成为热点话题之前很多年就一直在强调这个问题”。
With Victoria's deteriorating road system shaping up to be one of the defining issues of the upcoming election, Cleeland says the Nationals have "been banging on about potholes years before it became a hot topic".
“在维多利亚州偏远地区，我们知道哪些人因为道路状况发生了事故，我们也知道社区中因此失去的生命，”她说。
"In regional Victoria, we know the individuals that have had accidents and we know the lives that we've lost in our community because of the condition of the roads," she says.
此外还有政府快速审批可再生能源项目，以及允许州机构VicGrid及其承包商在未经土地所有者同意的情况下进入私人土地的争议性法律。
Then there's the government's fast-tracked renewable energy approvals and controversial laws that allow state body VicGrid and its contractors access to private land – without a landholder's consent.
“在该州的一些地方，关于可再生能源，感觉像是一场内战，”克利兰说。
"In parts of the state it feels like a civil war regarding renewables," Cleeland says.
不过她表示，应对这种愤怒情绪的办法“不是投出抗议票，而是投票支持另一个政党执政”——反对派领袖杰西·威尔逊最近几周也反复强调这一观点。奥布赖恩称，正是这一点打动了这位普翁镇的农场主。“如果你们希望看到改变，那就必须支持我们，”他说。贝纳姆用M&M豆来阐释类似的观点。
But she says the answer to that anger is "not a protest vote, but voting in an alternative government" – a message opposition leader, Jess Wilson, has repeated in recent weeks. O'Brien says it was this point that got the Poowong farmer on board. "If you want change then you've got to support us," he says. Benham used M&Ms to demonstrate a similar message.
上个月，她在社交媒体上发布了一段视频，警告称“保守派选票的分散”可能会让联盟党难以赢得组阁所需的16个席位，从而让工党得以连续第四次执政——她认为这种情况将是“灾难性的”。
She shared a video on social media last month warning that a split in the "conservative vote" could make it harder for the Coalition to win the 16 seats it needs to form government, potentially handing Labor a fourth term she says would be "catastrophic".
“很多人对我挑走了所有橙色的豆子感到不满，但也有更多人表示这种方式简单易懂、便于理解，”她说。
"There's been a lot of people that are angry that I took out all the orange ones, but there's been more people that are saying this is such a simple, easy way to understand it," she says.
科斯·萨马拉斯曾是工党战略顾问，如今是Redbridge民调公司的分析师。今年早些时候，他称维多利亚州国家党是“全澳实力最强的政党”。他坚信该党完全有能力抵御“一国党”的冲击。
Kos Samaras, a former Labor strategist turned pollster with Redbridge, earlier this year described the Victorian Nationals brand as the "strongest in the country". He maintains the party is "well-poised to defend themselves" against One Nation.
“他们正在向民众证明：如果人们希望看到改变，但又不希望出现混乱局面，那么只有他们能实现这一目标，”他说。
"They are demonstrating if people want change – but not chaos – they are the ones to deliver it," he says.
“虽然这无法赢得所有‘一国党’支持者的青睐，但或许足以帮助联盟党在三方对决中胜出。”
"It won't convert every One Nation supporter but it's potentially enough to allow the Coalition to win those three-way contests."