“唐纳德·特朗普是否有可能：1）自我赦免，或 2）采取某种策略，例如在任期结束前辞去总统职务，并由副总统作为新任总统的首项官方行动赦免他？”——克里斯蒂娜·马洛尼你好，克里斯蒂娜，你这两个问题的答案分别是“或许可以”和“可以”。我将在下文中分别解释。简而言之，特朗普再次被起诉的可能性似乎很低。
“Is it possible for Donald Trump 1) to pardon himself or 2) to engage in a tactic such as stepping down from the presidency before the end of his term and have the vice president pardon him as his first official act as the new president?” – Kristina Maloney Hi Kristina, The answers to your questions are “maybe” and “yes,” respectively. I’ll explain each below. The bottom line is that it’s hard to see Trump being prosecuted again.
自我赦免：总统能否自我赦免仍是一个悬而未决的问题。在理查德·尼克松因水门事件于1974年辞去总统职务之前，司法部曾认为总统不能自我赦免。
Self-pardon Whether presidents can pardon themselves is an open question Before Richard Nixon resigned from the presidency for the Watergate scandal in 1974, the Justice Department opined that presidents can’t pardon themselves.
司法部法律顾问办公室在一份备忘录意见中写道：“根据‘任何人都不能做自己案件的法官’这一基本原则，这个问题似乎应该予以否定回答。”
“Under the fundamental rule that no one may be a judge in his own case, it would seem that the question should be answered in the negative,” the memorandum opinion from the department’s Office of Legal Counsel said.
然而，尽管该法律机构在行政部门内具有权威性，其意见对法院并不具有约束力。由于从未有总统尝试过自我赦免，这一问题也尚未在法庭上受到检验。
But while that legal office is authoritative within the executive branch, its opinions aren’t binding on the courts. The self-pardon issue hasn’t been tested in court because no president has tried it.
当然，没有任何东西能阻止特朗普签署一份文件，声称他已被赦免此前可能犯下的任何联邦罪行。（总统的赦免仅适用于联邦罪行，而非州级罪行，且仅涵盖已发生的罪行，并非终身免罪金牌。）但问题在于，这种前所未有的赦免将如何受到检验。根据司法部的政策，现任总统不会被起诉，而特朗普任内的联邦检察官无论如何也不会对他提出任何指控。
Of course, there’s nothing to stop Trump fromg a piece of paper that says he is pardoned for any federal crimes he may have committed up to that point. (Presidential pardons apply to federal, not state offenses, and they cover crimes committed already they aren’t lifetime get-out-of-jail-free cards.) But the question is how the unprecedented pardon could be tested. DOJ policy bars the prosecution of sitting presidents, and federal prosecutors under Trump wouldn’t charge him for anything, anyway.
如果未来的司法部在他2029年离任后对其提出指控，这一问题或许会迎来检验。届时，他可能会在审判前提出动议，以该赦免为由要求驳回指控。这将迫使法院直面该赦免的有效性。
A test could materialize if a future DOJ charges him after he leaves office in 2029. He would raise the pardon in a pretrial motion to dismiss. That would force the courts to confront its validity.
然而，除了未来司法部是否会起诉特朗普（他离任时已82岁）这一重要的现实问题之外，另一个显然至关重要的问题是：他究竟可能面临哪些指控？
Yet on top of the important practical question of a future DOJ would charge Trump (who will be 82 when he leaves office), another obviously crucial question is charges could he face?
无论到2029年会出现何种可能性，至少，最高法院在“特朗普诉美国”案中对总统豁免权的2024年裁决，可能会严重阻碍检察官的行动。
Whatever the possibilities are by 2029, prosecutors could at least be severely hobbled by the Supreme Court’s 2024 presidential immunity ruling in Trump v. United States.
该裁决的界限尚未明确，因此，特朗普在任期内可能犯下可在离任后被起诉的罪行。但任何案件在推进之前，围绕这一问题都会经历漫长的审前诉讼。因此，在这一假设情境下，若检察官考虑对这位前总统提出指控，将同时面临豁免权和赦免权这两大障碍（此外，这一假设情境中还可能存在其他棘手问题）。
The limits of that ruling have not been defined, so it is possible that he could commit crimes while in office that can be prosecuted after he leaves. But there would be lengthy pretrial litigation on that question before any case could move forward. A prosecutor who considers charging the former president in this scenario would thus confront the dual obstacles of immunity and the pardon (on top of whatever other thorny considerations arise in this hypothetical situation).
因此，如果特朗普试图进行前所未有的自我赦免，我们完全有可能永远无法从法院获得关于其合法性的答案。
Therefore, if Trump attempts an unprecedented self-pardon, it is entirely possible that we never get an answer from the courts about its validity.
辞职后由新任总统赦免——从法律角度来看，一个更简单的方案是：特朗普辞职，副总统JD·万斯接任总统并赦免他。
Resignation followed by pardon from the new president A simpler option — from a legal standpoint — is that Trump resigns, Vice President JD Vance becomes president and pardons him.
与自我赦免不同，这种做法有明确的法律依据和历史先例：尼克松。他辞职后，副总统杰拉尔德·福特接任总统，并在其甚至尚未被指控任何罪行之前便赦免了他。
Unlike self-pardons, there is clear authority and historical precedent here: Nixon. He resigned, Vice President Gerald Ford became president and pardoned him before he was even charged with any crime.
事实上，特朗普政府目前正在调查他是否受到了不公平对待。无论这项调查得出何种结果，特朗普都可以自由辞职，而万斯也可以自由地在之后赦免他。
As it happens, the Trump administration is now investigating whether got a raw deal. Regardless of what that probe yields, Trump is free to resign and Vance is free to pardon him afterward.
如果民主党在2028年大选中获胜，那么随着特朗普第二个任期的结束，这一议题可能会引发更激烈的讨论。但如果白宫仍由共和党掌控，那么这一问题似乎就不会那么紧迫。假设共和党继续执政，保护特朗普将成为政府的一项优先事项，那么他就不会面临由共和党控制的司法部起诉的风险；这也有助于他利用诉讼时效来拖延时间。
This scenario will probably become more hotly discussed in the waning days of Trump’s second term if a Democrat wins the 2028 election. But if the White House stays in Republican hands, then it would seem to be less of a pressing matter. Assuming that such control would continue a governmental priority of protecting Trump he wouldn’t be at risk of prosecution by a GOP-controlled DOJ; that would also help him run the clock on statutes of limitation Further cementing the unlikelihood of another Trump prosecution, if Vance (or whoever is the next GOP nominee) wins in 2028 and then a Democrat wins in 2032, the outgoing Republican president could pardon Trump before they leave office.
此外，如果万斯（或下一位共和党候选人）在2028年获胜，而民主党人又在2032年当选，那么即将离任的共和党总统可以在他们离开办公室之前赦免特朗普。这将使他免受截至那时任何可被起诉行为的追究，包括其卸任后的任何行为。
That would cover him for anything prosecutable up to that point, including any post-presidency conduct.
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have Vance pardon him?