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以创纪录的速度造就十角兽Minting decacorns at a record pace

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插图:Natalie Peeples/AxiosIllustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios

从创立到成为十角兽企业,所需的平均时间已缩短近一半,甚至有些企业能在短短数月内实现这一跨越。

The average time from launch to decacorn has been cut in nearly half, and some decacorns arrive literally overnight.

数据来看:PitchBook的数据显示,2025年全球企业达到十角兽地位的平均耗时为5.5年。这一数值较2020年的9.4年有明显下降,甚至比当年企业成为独角兽所需的平均8年时间还要短。

By the numbers: It took companies globally an average of 5.5 years to hit decacorn status in 2025, data from PitchBook shows. That's down from 9.4 years in 2020, and it's even faster than the 8-year average to hit unicorn status that year.

进一步观察:2026年仅过去三个月,全球便已诞生了42家十角兽企业——这一成绩已创下历史纪录。预计接下来像2021年成立的Modal这类企业也将完成融资,其估值有望达到150亿美元。

Zoom in: With three months to go, 42 decacorns have been born globally in 2026 — cementing an historic record before expected rounds from companies like 2021-founded Modal's $15 billion valuation close. The previous record was 34 in 2021, which surpassed 2020's 14.

此前的纪录是2021年创下的34家,超过了2020年的14家。

Seventeen of the 20 fastest decacorns did that in 2025 or 2026.

在发展速度最快的20家十角兽企业中,有17家是在2025年或2026年诞生的,它们全部在三年或更短时间内便实现了这一成就。

All of which took about three years or fewer to get there.

以Discovery Loop为例:据称这家企业由谷歌前首席科学家杰夫·迪恩于8月份创立时,便以100亿美元的估值为目标,有望成为史上发展最快的十角兽企业。据《商业内幕》报道,该目标随后又被上调至500亿美元。

Case in point: Discovery Loop was reportedly seeking a $10 billion valuation when it was founded in August by former Google chief scientist Jeff Dean, setting it up to become the fastest ever company to hit $10 billion. That target was ramped up to $50 billion last month, per Business Insider.

现实情况是:成为十角兽并不等同于能长期保持成功,曾经被视为准十角兽企业的Webvan就是反面例证。

Reality check: Decacorn status doesn't guarantee long-term success, see proto-decacorn Webvan for proof of same.

宏观视角:这股发展热潮并未忽略那些在人工智能时代之前创立的企业。2026年新诞生的十角兽企业平均创立年限升至7.1年,这得益于16家创立时间超过8年的企业成功跻身十角兽行列。这些企业包括Cerebras(2015年创立)、Shield AI(2015年创立)、SambaNova(2017年创立)、FluidStack(2017年创立)、Airwallex(2015年创立)、NinjaOne(2013年创立)以及Whoop(2012年创立)。

Zoom out: The rising tide hasn't excluded companies launched in the pre-AI age. The average age of a new decacorn in 2026 ticked upward to 7.1, thanks to some 16 companies that were born over eight years ago. That includes players like Cerebras (2015), Shield AI (2015), SambaNova (2017), FluidStack (2017), Airwallex (2015), NinjaOne (2013), and Whoop (2012).

深层原因:失衡的风险投资市场是这一趋势的重要推手——投资者纷纷投入巨额资金支持备受青睐的创始人,或是像Anthropic那样参与后期巨额融资,将基金中的大量资金集中投入单一项目。

Between the lines: The lopsided VC market is a driving force as investors pile into mega-seed deals backing a highly sought-after founder, or later-stage mega-rounds like Anthropic where investors are piling extraordinary amounts of their fund into one bet.

不过需要注意的是:IPO市场正出现裂痕,多起上市计划被推迟或取消,因此11月将成为值得密切关注的关键月份。这一领域的疲软态势或许会给当前的繁荣时代带来黯淡的结局。

Yes, but: There are cracks in the IPO landscape, with delayed and cancelled offering making November a key month to watch. Weaknesses there could mean a darker ending for this current golden era.

核心结论:人工智能正推动收入增长比以往任何时候都更快。同时,它也在迅速推高估值——有时甚至没有收入增长作为支撑。

The bottom line: AI is leading to faster-than-ever ramp ups in revenue. It also leading to rapid bid ups in valuation — sometimes without the former.