
我发现了一种绝对能破坏与首席执行官及企业高管们对话氛围的办法:那就是提起碳核算。就在刚才还显得坦诚开放的谈话,瞬间就会变成小心翼翼的客套话,甚至陷入沉默。
I’ve found a surefire way to mess with the good vibes during my on-the-record conversations with CEOs and senior executives: bring up carbon accounting. In an instant, a conversation that felt open and transparent moments prior can turn into guarded talking points or simply go quiet.
在本就晦涩难懂的气候变化与减排领域中,碳核算或许是最为复杂难懂的议题。在关于碳排放的测算与归属规则方面,几乎没有哪个领域能引发如此激烈的争论与分歧。然而,在这些专业术语背后其实隐藏着一个至关重要的问题:每一吨碳排放的责任究竟该由谁承担?未来数月乃至数年里这一问题的答案,将直接影响从气候法规到企业能源采购决策的方方面面。
Carbon accounting may be the wonkiest topic in the already wonky world of climate change and emissions reduction. And few areas inspire more passionate debate and infighting than the rules for measuring and attributing them. But underneath the jargon lies a high-stakes question: who is responsible for each ton of carbon emissions? How that question is answered over the coming months and years will shape everything from climate regulations to corporate energy purchasing decisions.
阿斯彭研究所发布的一份报告为我们了解这场争论提供了难得的契机。该报告将于10月9日正式发布,此前我已提前获准阅读。报告内容基于今年2月举办的一场为期多日的峰会,当时学界、非政府组织以及产业界代表齐聚一堂,共同探讨碳核算的最佳实施路径。我受邀参加了这场闭门会议,并承诺在报道时不透露任何参与者的身份。最终各方达成了某种“停火协议”,承诺即便核心争议尚未解决,也会携手合作。
A report by the Aspen Institute and shared exclusively with me ahead of its Oct. 9 release offers a rare window into that fight. It draws on a multi-day summit this February that brought together the field’s key players—including academics, NGOs, and industry voices—to debate the path forward on how best to account for carbon emissions. I attended the closed-door summit having agreed to report on the discussion without identifying individual participants. It concluded in a ceasefire of sorts with promises to work together even as the core debates remain unresolved.
《Future Proof Weekly》:助您洞悉气候与能源经济格局。
Future Proof Weekly Making sense of the climate and energy economy.
要理解碳核算领域的现状,首先需了解处于讨论核心的体系。二十多年来,被称为“温室气体核算体系”(GHG Protocol)的方法日益普及,并已成为事实上的全球标准。根据该体系,企业排放被划分为三个范畴:范畴1指企业自身运营产生的直接排放;范畴2指企业购买的电力、热能及制冷服务所产生的间接排放;范畴3则涵盖整个价值链上的排放。这一体系还催生了众多指导文件,并为其他机构制定的法规与认证标准提供了依据。
To understand the carbon accounting landscape, you need to understand the system at the center of the debate. For more than two decades, one approach, known as the Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHGP), has flourished and become the de facto global standard. Under GHGP’s approach, emissions are divided into scopes: Scope 1 for direct emissions from a company’s operations, Scope 2 from a company’s purchased electricity, heat, and cooling, and Scope 3 for value chain emissions. The GHGP approach has driven a variety of guidance documents and informed regulation and certifications issued by other entities.
然而,与任何倡议类似,该体系也并非完美无缺。越来越多的利益相关方——尤其是企业——纷纷呼吁进行不同程度的调整与改进。
But, as with any such initiative, GHGP is not perfect. And a growing number of stakeholders—particularly businesses—have called for changes of varying scope and scale.
由此引发的碳核算争议点不胜枚举。技术层面,例如企业应以何种时间尺度(每小时还是每年)来匹配其用电量与清洁能源采购量;还有碳核算在多大程度上依赖估算值而非实际测量数据等问题。但或许最为核心的争议在于责任归属:在核算排放时,究竟应由谁承担责任?
The resulting fault lines in the carbon accounting debate are many. There are technical questions like over what time scale (hourly vs. annual) companies must match their electricity use with their clean energy purchases. And there are questions about the degree to which carbon accounting relies on estimates rather than true measurements. But, perhaps more than anything else, there is a debate about responsibility: in accounting for emissions, who should really be held responsible?
这些技术问题本身便足以引发分歧,而背后的理念之争则直指气候挑战的本质。
The technical matters are divisive on their own. The philosophical questions cut to the core of the climate challenge.
阿斯彭的天气反常地温暖,但这并未阻止研讨室内不时出现寒意。尽管无人认为温室气体核算体系尽善尽美,但对于需要做出哪些改动以及改动程度如何,与会者的观点却大相径庭。
The weather in Aspen was unseasonably warm. That didn’t keep the seminar room from turning chilly at times. While no one in Aspen said that the GHGP approach is perfect, perspectives on what to change and by how much varied widely.
现行制度的支持者表示,范围2和范围3的披露机制已经推动了企业的自愿行动。特别是范围2的规定,为公司提供了一种清晰的方式,使其能够因购买清洁电力而获得认可。这种可预测性也有助于长期可再生能源合同(即电力购买协议)的蓬勃发展。而可预测性确实至关重要。尽管从理论上讲,或许可以设计出更完善的体系,但GHGP的方法已经根深蒂固,而新体系要获得如此广泛的采用,可能需要数十年时间。
Defenders of the current system say that Scope 2 and Scope 3 reporting has motivated voluntary corporate action. Scope 2 rules, in particular, give companies a clear way to claim credit for the clean electricity they buy, and that predictability has helped fuel a boom in long-term renewable power contracts, known as power purchase agreements. And predictability matters. While in theory it may be possible to design a better system, the GHGP approach is entrenched, and it could take decades for a new system to earn such widespread adoption.
批评意见则涉及多个方面。GHGP的方法允许“重复计算”。换言之,多家公司最终会在不同范围下对同一排放进行核算。以建筑物中的钢材为例:钢铁生产商、建筑公司以及建筑物的所有者,从技术上讲都对钢材产生的排放负有责任。
The critiques are multifold. The GHGP approach allows for “double-counting.”In other words, multiple companies end up accounting for the same emissions under different scopes. Think of steel in a building. The steel producer, the construction firm, and the building owner are all technically responsible for the steel emissions.
一种主要的替代方法起源于学术界,如今已有行业联盟为其倡导。这种方法通过“电子账本”来核算排放:每一单位排放只被计算一次,记录在账本中,然后随着产品的流转而转移。这是一种优雅且具备实际优势的方法。它将激励企业专注于自身运营的脱碳,并为其采购活动提供高质量的排放数据。然而,在阿斯彭会议现场,一些与会者指出,这种方法实施起来会面临困难——只有价值链上的每一个参与者都加入进来,它才能真正发挥作用。
A primary alternative approach, which originated in academia and now has a coalition of industry players advocating for it, accounts for emissions using “e-ledgers.”Every unit of emissions is accounted for once, placed on a ledger, and then transferred as a product moves through the world. It’s an elegant approach with real advantages. It would incentivize companies to focus on decarbonizing their own operations and give them high-quality emissions data to use in procurement. But some in the room in Aspen noted that it would be difficult to implement. It only really works if every single player on the value chain participates.
不过,最尖锐的分歧在于产品使用环节产生的排放。根据GHGP的范围3规定,石油公司需要计算其客户燃烧的每一加仑汽油所产生的排放,而这正是其巨大碳足迹的主要来源。电子账本的方法则不同:排放会随产品一同流转,责任归属最终使用产品的消费者。这意味着消费者需要承担更大的责任,即便他们对更广泛的体系几乎没有任何影响力。
The sharpest divide, however, concerns emissions from using a product. Under GHGP’s Scope 3, an oil company counts the emissions from every gallon of gasoline its customers burn. That is the primary driver of its enormous carbon footprint. An e-ledger works differently, with emissions traveling with a product and responsibility belonging to whoever does the burning. That leaves consumers with greater accountability even if they have little influence over the broader system.
电子账本这一理念最早于2021年起通过一系列备受瞩目的学术文章开始传播。到了2025年,包括埃克森美孚、贝莱德在内的多家企业联合发起成立了一个商业联盟,致力于推广电子账本的应用模式。
The e-ledger approach emerged from the corners of academia in a series of highly publicized articles beginning in 2021. And, in 2025, a coalition of companies including ExxonMobil, BlackRock, and others backed the launch of a business coalition to advocate for an e-ledger approach.
与此同时,随着气候变化议题在公众关注度上逐渐退居次要位置,部分企业不愿再投入必要资源来全面落实GHGP所要求的各项举措。对此,GHGP也采取了应对措施:任命了新的首席执行官并推行了一系列改革措施。
At the same time, the call for change comes amid the retrenchment of climate from its front and center position in the public zeitgeist, making some companies less willing to commit the resources necessary to fully embrace the work required by GHGP. GHGP has responded, hiring a new CEO and instituting a string of reforms.
鉴于此事事关重大且涉及多方利益,阿斯彭峰会上各方讨论时常出现激烈交锋也就不足为奇了。不过峰会最终还是达成了某种和解:与会者一致同意携手寻找共识。事实上,不少与会者指出,电子账本有助于追踪产品的碳足迹,而GHGP的相关规则则应适用于整个企业层面。
Given the stakes and the players involved, it’s no surprise that the conversations in Aspen were heated at times. And yet the summit ended with a detente of sorts, as participants agreed to work together to find common ground. Indeed, some participants noted that e-ledgers can help with tracking a product’s carbon footprint, while the broader GHGP rules should apply for a whole company.
气候领域这一专业性较强的细分领域未来的走向,其实牵动着许多人的心。它将直接影响各类法规的制定——包括加利福尼亚州与欧盟的气候信息披露规则——也会决定企业气候行动的方向。或许最为关键的是,它还将决定我们如何界定未来碳排放的责任归属。
What happens next in this wonky corner of the climate community concerns more people than you might expect. It will shape regulations—including climate disclosure rules in California and the European Union—and affect where businesses target their climate initiatives. Perhaps most importantly, it will affect how we answer the question of who is responsible for future emissions.