根据伍德麦肯兹发布的最新报告，目前电池储能的成本已低于许多数据中心开发商青睐的某种天然气发电厂。
Battery storage is now cheaper than a type of natural gas power plant favored by many data center developers, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie.
在伍德麦肯兹调研的43个市场及各大洲，四小时储能时长的电池系统成本均低于开放式循环燃气轮机发电系统。该咨询机构预测，未来数十年内电池发电成本将持续下降，而燃气轮机发电成本则将不断上升。
On every continent and in each of the 43 markets that Wood Mackenzie surveyed, four-hour duration batteries were less expensive than open-cycle gas turbines. The consultancy predicts that the cost of electricity from batteries will continue to decline while electrons from gas turbines will only grow more expensive in the coming decades.
这份报告发布之际，美国及其他地区的能源价格仍在持续上涨，进而推高通胀水平；与此同时，数据中心的发展使得电力需求屡创新高。人工智能数据中心开发商大量采购各类燃气轮机，导致此类设备价格水涨船高。其中，开放式循环燃气轮机的情况尤为严重——这类设备虽然更易获取，但效率较低且运行成本更高。
The report lands as energy prices in the U.S. and elsewhere continue to rise, fueling inflation as data centers push electricity demand to new heights. Prices for gas turbines have been driven up by AI data center developers, which have been buying any model they can get their hands on. The effects have been more acute for open-cycle gas turbines, which are more readily available but less efficient and more expensive to operate.
公用事业公司常将开放式循环燃气轮机用作调峰电厂，即在用电高峰时段提供电力。随着此类设备价格攀升，公用事业公司的运营成本也随之增加。
Those turbines are often used by utilities as peaking power plants, which step in to generate electricity in periods of high demand. As prices for those turbines rise, it can raise costs for utilities, too.
相较于闭式循环燃气轮机，开放式循环燃气轮机制造工艺更为简单，但如今采购周期仍需两至四年。至于闭式循环燃气轮机，其交货等待期甚至已排至2030年代初。上述两类设备的供应短缺现象均导致所有新建天然气发电厂的成本大幅上涨。
Open-cycle turbines are simpler to make than closed-cycle turbines, but even they now take two to four years to procure. Waitlists for closed-cycle turbines now extend into the early 2030s. Both backlogs have been spiking prices for all new natural gas power plants.
不过，并非所有发电技术的成本都呈上升趋势。在伍德麦肯兹调研的所有市场中，太阳能目前都是新建发电项目中最具成本优势的能源形式。
That’s not the case for every generating technology. Solar is now the cheapest form of new power in every market in Wood Mackenzie’s survey.
尽管在北美地区太阳能依然是成本最低的能源选择，但当地的市场形势依然复杂。据伍德麦肯兹分析，关税与进口限制措施正给太阳能价格带来下行压力，不过大型公用事业级太阳能项目的前景相对乐观。得益于《一项宏伟法案》中的保护条款，北美地区已有168吉瓦的太阳能项目得以免受近期价格波动的影响；该条款规定，凡在2027年底前开工或已完工的项目均可继续享受税收减免优惠。
While solar remains cheapest even in North America, the situation remains complicated there. Solar prices are “under pressure” from tariffs and import restrictions, according to Wood Mackenzie, though utility-scale solar is expected to fare better. There, 168 gigawatts is largely protected from those near term price shocks thanks to safe-harbor provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill, which kept tax credits for projects that have begun construction or are completed before the end of 2027.
未来十年，美国天然气市场规模或将缩小。在中东和非洲地区，到2035年四小时储能系统的成本预计将下降33%，“这一降幅足以使储能系统在成本层面取代天然气发电，从而改变整个地区的能源格局。”在中国，储能成本更是比周边国家低55%。
The market for U.S. natural gas will narrow in the coming decade. In the Middle East and Africa, four-hour batteries will be 33% cheaper by 2035, “displacing gas peaking on cost across every gas market in the region.”In China, energy storage costs are 55% below its neighbors’.
“这种经济趋势具有决定性意义，且影响范围正日益扩大，”伍德麦肯兹首席分析师艾哈迈德·贾米尔·阿卜杜拉在新闻稿中说道。
“This economic shift is decisive and widening,” Ahmed Jameel Abdullah, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in a press release.