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共和党再次搬出2024年的攻击广告——却有一处代价高昂的遗漏The GOP is reviving a viral attack ad. This time, Democrats are fighting back.

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詹姆斯·塔拉里科在2026年2月21日于得克萨斯州埃尔帕索参观移民及海关执法局拘留中心时,在中心外走动,此行是他“夺回得克萨斯”巡游活动的一部分。何塞·路易斯·冈萨雷斯 / 路透社James Talarico walks outside an ICE detention center during a visit as part of his “Take Back Texas” tour on Feb. 21, 2026, in El Paso, Texas.Jose Luis Gonzalez / Reuters

在2024年总统竞选期间,共和党人找到了一个似乎能引起摇摆选民共鸣的口号:“卡玛拉支持他们/她们。唐纳德·特朗普为你而战。”

In the 2024 presidential campaign, Republicans found a tagline that seemed to resonate with undecided voters: “Kamala is for they/them. Donald Trump is for you.”

两年后,共和党正在复兴这个口号。根据广告追踪公司AdImpact的数据,今年共和党及其盟友在包含该口号某个版本的广告上花费超过4000万美元。其中大部分资金用于针对参议院摇摆州的民主党候选人, notably 德克萨斯州的詹姆斯·塔拉里科和阿拉斯加州的玛丽·佩尔托拉。

Two years later, the GOP is reviving it. According to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, Republicans and their allies have spent more than $40 million this year on ads featuring some version of the line. Much of that money is aimed at Democratic candidates in Senate battlegrounds, notably James Talarico in Texas and Mary Peltola in Alaska .

但今年的许多广告只保留了这个公式的一半。2024年的广告将对卡玛拉·哈里斯的攻击与对唐纳德·特朗普的经济承诺(“为你”那一半)结合起来。而许多新广告完全跳过了经济议题,而且花费最高的两则广告根本没有提及他们旨在帮助的共和党候选人。

But many of this year’s ads keep only half the formula. The 2024 spot paired its attack on Kamala Harris with an economic pitch for Donald Trump — the “for you” half of the line. Many of the new ads skip the economy entirely, and the two most expensive ones never mention the Republican candidate they’re meant to help.

这可能会成为一个代价高昂的疏漏。鉴于总统历来不受欢迎,且选民对高昂的生活成本感到担忧,一些策略师怀疑这次攻击是否能像2024年那样奏效。

That could prove a costly omission. With the president historically unpopular and voters concerned about the high cost of living, some strategists doubt the attack will land the way it did in 2024.

“能够唤起强烈情感的有力标语就像二手车:它们的价值会随着时间的推移而下降,”长期担任民主党政治策略师和心理学教授的德鲁·韦斯特恩对MS NOW表示。

“Powerful taglines that evoke strong emotions are like used cars: They decrease in value over the years,” Drew Westen, a longtime Democratic political strategist and psychology professor, told MS NOW.

与2024年不同的是,如今共和党控制着白宫和国会两院,使得选民的经济焦虑更难归咎于民主党。

And unlike in 2024, Republicans now control the White House and both chambers of Congress, making voters’ economic anxieties harder to pin on Democrats.

“代词的价格为零。而石油、柴油和杂货的价格正在飙升,”韦斯特恩补充道。

“The price of pronouns is zero. The price of oil, diesel, and groceries is skyrocketing,” Westen added.

还有另一个与2024年的不同:与哈里斯不同的是,今年被这次广告波及的许多民主党候选人正在直接回应。而且当他们回应时,他们明确表示,他们对跨性别者和非二元性别者的支持程度远不如对手所宣称的那样。

There’s another difference from 2024: Unlike Harris, many of the Democrats being targeted by this year’s crop of ads are responding directly. And when they do, they’re making it clear that they don’t support transgender and nonbinary people as much as their opponents insist they do.

2024年,特朗普竞选团队投放的广告,根据AdImpact的数据,获得了15亿次曝光。该广告主要聚焦于哈里斯支持为被监禁的跨性别者提供性别肯定护理的立场,并以突出特朗普在经济方面的记录而告终 — — 暗示两位候选人的优先事项存在巨大差距。

The 2024 ad, paid for by Trump’s campaign, drew 1.5 billion impressions, according to AdImpact . It primarily focused on Harris’s support for giving incarcerated transgender people access to gender-affirming care, and concluded by highlighting Trump’s record on the economy — implying a vast gulf between the candidates’ priorities.

民主党策略师 — — 甚至哈里斯本人 — — 承认该广告非常有效。

Democratic strategists — and even Harris herself — conceded its effectiveness.

民主党全国委员会在2024年大选后泄露的一份有争议的尸检报告显示,该党的内部民意调查人员认为该广告“非常有效”,但认为与其直接回应,不如将重点放在攻击特朗普上。

The controversial leaked autopsy report prepared for the Democratic National Committee after the 2024 campaign said the party’s internal pollsters determined the ad was “very effective,” but that instead of directly responding, “the focus needed to be on attacking Trump.”

在她的竞选后回忆录《107天》中,哈里斯承认特朗普团队是“正确的” — — 他们所使用的标语提供了一个“获胜的信息”,尽管“程度未达到成为普遍共识的地步”。她指出,她的团队通过在摇摆州投放聚焦经济的广告进行了回应。今年的许多广告都缺乏特朗普/哈里斯广告那样的冲击力。

In “107 Days,” her post-election memoir, Harris conceded that Trump’s team was “right” that the tagline offered a “winning message,” though “not to the extent that has become conventional wisdom.”Her campaign, she noted, responded with economy-focused ads in battleground states. Many of this year’s ads lack the same punch the Trump/Harris one did.

最明显的例子出现在得克萨斯州,一个支持共和党参议员候选人肯·帕克斯顿的委员会上个月投放了一则针对塔拉利科的广告,花费达2000万美元。该广告聚焦于他支持为跨性别未成年人提供性别肯定护理的立场,根据AdImpact的数据,已获得11亿次曝光。广告以“詹姆斯·塔拉利科:为他们/她们服务,而非为你”结束。全程未提及帕克斯顿。

The clearest example is in Texas, where a committee backing Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton has spent $20 million on an ad targeting Talarico that debuted last month. The spot focuses on his support for gender-affirming care for transgender minors and has earned 1.1 billion impressions, according to AdImpact. It concludes with “James Talarico: For they/them, not you.”It does not mention Paxton at all.

詹姆斯·塔拉利科于2026年2月21日在得克萨斯州埃尔帕索参加其“夺回得克萨斯”巡回活动期间,走出ICE拘留中心。Jose Luis Gonzalez / Reuters另一则类似广告由同一政治行动委员会(PAC)投放,获额外1700万美元资金支持,目前已引发超过9亿次曝光 — — 同样未提及帕克斯顿或其政策。而Politifact的事实核查发现,该广告的核心主张 — — 塔拉利科支持使用纳税人资金为未成年人进行性别转换手术 — — 根本不成立。

James Talarico walks outside an ICE detention center during a visit as part of his “Take Back Texas” tour on Feb. 21, 2026, in El Paso, Texas. Jose Luis Gonzalez / Reuters A second, similar ad from the PAC , backed by another $17 million, has drawn more than 900 million impressions so far — and also fails to mention Paxton or his policies. And Politifact found that the ads’ central claim — that Talarico supported using taxpayer funds for gender transition surgeries on minors — is not even true.

塔拉里科上周通过一则反击广告回应,指控帕克斯顿“在撒谎关于我的记录”。

Talarico hit back with a response ad last week accusing Paxton of “lying about my record.”

“我不支持为儿童进行性别转换手术,”塔拉里科在广告中说。他的竞选团队为此广告花费了430万美元,目前已获得4.3亿次曝光。

“No, I don’t support sex-change surgeries for kids,” Talarico says in the spot. His campaign spent $4.3 million on it and it has 430 million impressions so far.

针对佩特奥拉的广告由亲特朗普政治行动委员会“No Going Back”付费制作,内容更接近2024年的模板。广告称该候选人及前国会议员“希望我们的钱为他们/她们工作”。随后广告转向她的对手——现任共和党参议员丹·沙利文,声称他“投票主张仅将我们的税款用于有益于我们的事务,而非他们/她们”。根据AdImpact的数据,该政治行动委员会已投入超过380万美元播放这些广告,目前累计曝光达860万次。

The ads against Peltola, paid for by the pro-Trump PAC No Going Back, hew closer to the 2024 template. They state the candidate and former member of Congress “wants our money working for they/them.”The ad then pivots to her opponent , incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, who they say “voted to use our tax dollars only on the things that help us , not they/them.”The PAC has spent more than $3.8 million to air the ads, which have 8.6 million impressions so far, according to AdImpact.

玛丽·佩特奥拉在2026年9月12日于阿拉斯加科迪亚克举行的阿拉斯加渔业辩论中。佩特奥拉在自己的广告中驳斥了该攻击的核心观点:“我不希望孩子们接受改变性别的手术,也不希望男性进入女厕所。”她的竞选团队为此广告花费不到30万美元,目前已获得360万次曝光(据AdImpact)。

Mary Peltola during the 2026 Alaska Fisheries Debate on Sept. 12, 2026, in Kodiak, Alaska. Nathaniel Wilder / Bloomberg via Getty Images Peltola rejected that attack’s central claim in her own ad : “No, I don’t want kids getting surgeries to change genders or men in girls’ bathrooms.”Her campaign paid under $300,000 for the spot, which has 3.6 million impressions so far, according to AdImpact.

玛丽·佩尔托拉在2026年9月12日于阿拉斯加州科迪亚克举行的2026年阿拉斯加渔业辩论会上。纳撒尼尔·怀尔德 / 彭博社 via 盖蒂图片社Mary Peltola during the 2026 Alaska Fisheries Debate on Sept. 12, 2026, in Kodiak, Alaska.Nathaniel Wilder / Bloomberg via Getty Images

根据Cook Political Report的评级,关键众议院选区中的民主党人——北卡罗来纳州第一选区众议员唐·戴维斯和亚利桑那州第六选区众议员乔安娜·门多萨——也直接回应了共和党的攻击广告,称他们不会将“他们/她们”置于潜在选民之上。

Democrats in key House races rated toss-ups by the Cook Political Report — Rep. Don Davis in North Carolina’s 1st congressional district and Joanna Mendoza in Arizona’s 6th congressional district — also directly responded to Republican attack ads that they would prioritize “they/them” over their potential constituents.

他们的表态反映出一种更广泛的转变。民调显示,相当比例的美国人支持禁止跨性别运动员参加女子和女子运动队。民主党人——包括塔拉里科——据此作出回应,淡化了他们之前对跨性别者的辩护,转而强调“安全和公平”的担忧。这种转变可能削弱共和党“他们/她们”攻击的效果。

Their messages reflect a broader shift. Polling suggests a sizable share of Americans support barring transgender athletes from girls’ and women’s sports. Democrats — including Talarico — have responded accordingly, softening their prior defenses of trans people and citing concerns about “safety and fairness.”That shift could blunt the force of Republicans’ “they/them” attacks.

泰勒·黑克是克里斯托弗街项目的执行董事,该项目是一个支持跨性别者参与政治的倡导组织。她表示,特朗普竞选团队的2024年广告“有效,是因为缺乏民主党的回应。”但她认为目前泛滥的广告与大多数选民的关切无关。

Tyler Hack is executive director of the Christopher Street Project, an advocacy group that supports transgender people in politics. She said the 2024 ad from the Trump campaign “was effective due to a lack of a Democratic response.”But she does not see the glut of current ads as relevant to most voters’ concerns.

“与经济和伊朗战争等议题相比,这并不是影响大多数美国人的问题,”黑克说。

“In contrast to issues like the economy and the war in Iran, this is not something affecting most Americans,” Hack said.

她指出,民调显示大多数美国人表示他们不认识跨性别者。跨性别者约占美国人口的1%。

She noted that polling suggests most Americans say they do not know a transgender person. Trans people account for about 1% of the U.S. population.

全国共和党参议院委员会全国新闻秘书伯纳黛特·布雷斯林为这些广告辩护,她对MS NOW表示:“父母有权知道激进分子……站在了议题的错误一方。”但该标语并不总是对该党有效。

Bernadette Breslin, national press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, defended the ads, telling MS NOW, “Parents deserve to know when radicals… are on the wrong side” of issues. But the tagline has not always proven successful for the party.

去年弗吉尼亚州州长竞选期间,共和党候选人温斯姆·厄尔-西尔斯花费180万美元投放了一则广告,宣称“激进的阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格支持他们/她们 — — 而不是我们。”尽管如此,斯潘伯格仍然赢得了选举。黑克认为这部分原因在于斯潘伯格正面回应了这一攻击。

During last year’s Virginia gubernatorial campaign, Republican Winsome Earle-Sears spent $1.8 million on an ad declaring that “radical Abigail Spanberger is for they/them — not us.”Spanberger won anyway . Hack believes that’s partly because Spanberger took the attack head-on .

“她在电视上直面回应,没有退缩,也没有把任何人推出来背锅,最终赢得了胜利,”黑克说。

“She addressed it on TV, didn’t back down, didn’t throw anyone under the bus, and won,” Hack said.

共和党候选人也曾在初选中 unsuccessfully 使用该标语攻击自己的同党。

Republican candidates have also unsuccessfully used the tagline to attack their own in primaries.

比尔·卡西迪参议员的政治行动委员会曾投放一则广告,指责时任挑战者、共和党参议院提名候选人朱莉娅·莱特洛“站在他们/她们那边”。莱特洛曾获得特朗普背书,且并非进步派盟友,但在卡西迪甚至未能进入决选后,她最终胜出。

Sen. Bill Cassidy’s PAC put out an ad accusing Rep. Julia Letlow, his then-challenger for the GOP Senate nomination, of being “with they/them.”Letlow — who was endorsed by Trump and is hardly a progressive ally — ultimately triumphed after Cassidy failed to even make it to the runoff.

类似的攻击广告也未能为托马斯·马西议员奏效,他在肯塔基州选区试图抵御埃德·加尔雷因的初选挑战时失败;亦或是一个暗钱组织针对奥克拉荷马州共和党州长初选中特朗普支持的共和党候选人迈克·马泽伊所投放的攻击广告,同样未能取得预期效果。

Similar attack ads failed to work for Rep. Thomas Massie in his unsuccessful bid to fend off a primary challenge from Ed Gallrein in his Kentucky district, or a dark money group that ran an attack ad against Mike Mazzei, a Trump-backed Republican in Oklahoma’s GOP gubernatorial primary.

然而,并非所有人都相信这个标语值得放弃。资深共和党策略师查理·布莱克告诉MS NOW,他认为“他们/他们”广告“在得州这样的地方将成为一个突出的问题。”

Still, not everyone is convinced the tagline is worth abandoning. Veteran Republican strategist Charlie Black told MS NOW he believes the “they/them” ads “will be a salient issue in a place like Texas.”

然而,韦斯坦认为,他们“只有在[民主党人]不作出回应或回应不力的情况下才会产生影响,而他们至少比上次回应得更好。”

Westen, though, thinks they “will only have an impact if [Democrats] don’t respond or respond poorly, and they are at least responding better than last time.”

“我认为选民们更关注发生在他们身上的事情以及他们支付账单的能力,”他继续说道,“因此,代词不太可能对他们对候选人的直觉感受产生太大影响,而这就是大多数人投票的方式。”

“I think voters are so focused on what’s happened to them and their ability to pay their bills,” he continued, “that pronouns are not likely to have much of an impact on their gut-level feelings towards the candidates, which is how most people vote.”

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