一年前，加密货币正乘着白宫支持、华尔街热情以及对新黄金时代期待的浪潮。随后十月发生了历史性崩盘，单日抹平了创纪录的190亿美元杠杆押注，引发全行业收缩，暴露了一个本应走向成熟的市场结构的脆弱性。
A year ago, crypto was riding a wave of White House support, Wall Street enthusiasm and expectations of a new golden age. Then came October’s historic crash, wiping out a record $19 billion in leveraged bets in a single day, setting off an industry-wide retrenchment and exposing the fragility of a market structure supposedly coming of age.
十二个月后，市场风向标比特币仍比历史高点低逾30%。持续反弹的尝试屡屡受挫，交易者重建曾推动加密货币最大繁荣的杠杆头寸的步伐缓慢。
Twelve months later, market bellwether Bitcoin remains more than 30% below its record high. Attempts at a sustained rally have repeatedly faltered and traders have been slow to rebuild the leveraged positions that once powered crypto’s biggest booms.
据CryptoQuant数据，一年前比特币关联永续期货的总未平仓合约——衡量交易者对杠杆押注胃口的指标——约为450亿美元。崩盘后六个月内，这一数字减半以上。比特币近期反弹突破8万美元恢复了部分信心，但全球最大代币的未平仓合约仍远低于峰值。
Total open interest in Bitcoin-linked perpetual futures — a gauge of traders’ appetite for leveraged bets — stood at about $45 billion a year ago, according to CryptoQuant data. It more than halved in the six months after the crash. Bitcoin’s recent rally above $80,000 restored some confidence, but open interest in the world’s biggest token remains well off its peak.
尽管如此，低迷并未阻止银行和大型交易公司尝试数字资产。加密货币做市商Caladan总裁Julia Zhou表示，比杠杆是否回归更重要的是市场本身是否变得更具韧性。
Still, the malaise hasn’t stopped banks and major trading firms from experimenting with digital assets. More important than whether leverage returns is whether the market itself has become more resilient, said Julia Zhou, president at crypto market maker Caladan.
Zhou说：“24小时内清算了超过190亿美元的杠杆头寸，但更大的问题是当市场最需要流动性时，可用流动性消失得有多快。”她补充道，如今虽然交易者更了解风险，“市场仍高度碎片化，流动性仍可能迅速恶化。”
“More than $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 hours, but the bigger issue was how quickly available liquidity disappeared when the market needed it most,” Zhou said. Today, while traders understand the risks better, “the market remains highly fragmented, and liquidity can still deteriorate rapidly,” she added.
当前市场更强劲的理由在于：杠杆水平更低，交易所提供的资产相关性更低，且部分平台已强化清算系统。
The case for a stronger market today is that leverage is lower, exchanges offer less-correlated assets and some venues have beefed up liquidation systems.
与此同时，投资者对“投机”的兴趣并未减弱，只是将注意力转向了新的领域。预测市场（prediction markets）吸引了大量投资者；而长期以来一直被用于加密货币交易的“永续期货”（perpetual futures）现在也被用来对股票、商品等现实世界资产进行杠杆交易。换句话说，那些最初帮助加密货币成为投机工具的机制，如今已被广泛应用于其他领域——华尔街正在积极推进稳定币（stablecoins）的发展、代币化（tokenization）以及基于区块链技术的金融基础设施的建设。
Meanwhile, investors haven’t lost their taste for gambling, but have turned to new frontiers. Prediction markets are drawing crowds, and perpetual futures or “perps” — long a staple of crypto trading — are being used to place leveraged bets on stocks, commodities and other real-world assets. Put another way, some of the very machinery that helped turn crypto into a speculative phenomenon is finding uses well beyond the tokens it was designed to trade: Wall Street is forging ahead with stablecoins, tokenization and the financial infrastructure built on blockchain technology.
根据 DefiLlama 的数据，目前对现实世界资产相关的永续期货的未平仓合约价值已超过 170 亿美元。其中很大一部分需求来自 Hyperliquid 这家海外加密货币交易所，该公司是最早将永续期货与股票、商品挂钩的机构之一。
Open interest in perpetual futures for real-world assets, virtually non-existent a year ago, today stands at more than $17 billion, according to DefiLlama data. Much of that has been driven by Hyperliquid, the offshore crypto exchange, which was an early mover in tying perps to stocks and commodities.
“这种转变反映了人们对于能够持续产生收益、且交易流程透明的金融产品的需求，而非那些仅仅追逐炒作热点或热门加密货币的人们的行为，”交易公司 LO:TECH 的研究主管亚当·麦卡锡（Adam McCarthy）说道。
The shift “tells a growth story of people that want yield and settlement on rails that never close, not from people chasing a narrative or a buzzy memecoin,” said Adam McCarthy, head of research at trading firm LO:TECH.
对更高回报的不懈追求使得比特币自诞生以来成为表现最佳的金融资产。对于长期参与加密货币市场的投资者来说，该行业的日益制度化，以及从永续期货到体育博彩等各种新金融产品的出现，被视为一个重要的转折点。
The never-ending quest for higher returns helped make Bitcoin the world’s best-performing financial asset since its inception 17 years ago. For long-time crypto-market participants, the increased institutionalization of the sector and corresponding rise of fresh alternatives from perpetual futures to sports betting are seen as an inflection point.
QCP Capital 在本周发布的报告中预测，比特币在第四季度的价格将维持在 8 万至 9 万美元之间。该公司指出，虽然加密货币的长期发展前景依然稳固，但仅靠市场资金流动本身是不够的，还需要某个能够推动市场发展的关键因素。
In a report released this week, QCP Capital said it expected Bitcoin to be stuck in a range of $80,000 to $90,000 in the fourth quarter. The structural case for crypto remains intact, but flows alone aren’t enough without a dominant catalyst, the firm wrote.
Galaxy Digital 在周五发布的报告中表示，一年后加密货币市场已经发生了根本性的变化。尽管美国在 9 月份未能出台有效的加密货币监管政策，但联邦监管机构仍在继续推进相关改革计划，旨在通过制定关于抵押品和保证金使用的指导方针来规范加密货币交易。
A year out, the market looks fundamentally different, Galaxy Digital said in a report Friday. Despite the failure of US crypto regulation in September, federal regulators are moving ahead with plans to strengthen trading with guidelines over the use of collateral and margin.
总之，尽管过去一年里加密货币市场经历了许多波折，但监管机构的努力仍在推动行业的健康发展。
All that means an industry born of disruptive idealism and defined by speculative excess is becoming more closely integrated with the financial establishment it once sought to displace.
这意味着：这个最初由颠覆性理想主义催生、并以过度投机为特征的产业，正在逐渐与它曾试图取代的金融体系紧密结合在一起。随着人工智能成为市场主流，加密货币的未来已与早期繁荣时期所设想的截然不同——它不再是对华尔街的反抗，反而成为了华尔街体系的一部分。
And with artificial intelligence commanding much of the market’s imagination, crypto faces a different future from the one envisioned in its early boom years: less a rebellion against Wall Street than another corner of it. “For the most part, the market that crashed on 10/10 doesn’t really exist anymore,” wrote Lucas Tcheyan, vice president of research at Galaxy Digital.
“10月10日暴跌后的那个市场，实际上已经不复存在了，”Galaxy Digital的研究副总裁卢卡斯·切扬（Lucas Tcheyan）写道，“取而代之的市场才刚刚开始被市场参与者所认可（即其价值才开始被真正评估）。”
“The one that replaced it is just starting to get priced in.”