民族主义党在民调中一路高歌，但将难以把民调领先转化为议会席位。堪培拉 — — 一民族党在澳大利亚全国民意调查中一路高歌，自六月以来平均支持率达28%。但这些数字存在问题：它们几乎无法告诉我们保罗琳·汉森的党离执政有多近。
The nationalist party is riding high, but will struggle to convert its poll leads into parliament seats CANBERRA — One Nation is riding high in Australia’s national opinion polls, averaging 28% support since June. But there’s a problem with the numbers: They tell us remarkably little about how close Pauline Hanson’s party is to winning power.
同样的民调虽然暗示一民族党正处于政治突破的边缘，却掩盖了其选举前景中的一个根本性弱点。
The same polling that suggests One Nation is on the brink of a political breakthrough disguises a fundamental weakness in its electoral prospects.
该党正在取代州和联邦层面的国家党，并可能最终在新南威尔士州、维多利亚州和联邦议会中掌握平衡力量。
The party is on track to replace the Nationals at state and federal level — and could end up holding the balance of power in the New South Wales, Victorian and federal parliaments.
但澳大利亚并非通过全国性的民气竞赛来选举政府。它是席位之争，胜负取决于选民如何排序候选人以及他们的偏好最终流向何处。
But Australia doesn’t elect governments through a national popularity contest. It elects them seat by seat, with victories determined by how voters rank candidates and where their preferences end up.