台湾军方正面临日益严重的人力短缺问题，其志愿兵编制率连续第三年低于80%的目标，引发对战备能力影响的担忧，据台湾立法院称。
Taiwan’s military is grappling with a worsening manpower shortage, with its volunteer staffing rate remaining below the 80 per cent target for a third consecutive year and concerns mounting over the impact on combat readiness, according to the island’s legislature.
人力短缺问题深入前线部队，包括步兵、炮兵、导弹和防空部队，引发外界对台湾是否拥有足够受训人员来操作和维护大量新装备的质疑。
The shortages extend deep into frontline formations – including infantry, artillery, missile and air defence units – raising questions over whether Taiwan will have enough trained personnel to operate and maintain the vast quantities of new weapons entering service, observers said.
立法院预算中心本周对政府提出的2027年预算进行评估时警告称，持续的人力短缺可能增加现役官兵的工作量和训练需求，同时影响战备能力。
A Legislative Yuan Budget Centre assessment of the government’s proposed 2027 budget warned this week that persistent personnel shortages could increase workloads and training demands on serving troops while affecting readiness.
预算中心引用的国防部数据显示，志愿兵成功填补的编制率在2020年达到峰值88.52%，随后在2023年降至80%以下，2024年降至75.93%，去年底为77.31%。
Defence ministry figures cited by the centre showed that the number of staff positions successfully filled by volunteers peaked at 88.52 per cent in 2020 before falling below 80 per cent in 2023. It dropped to 75.93 per cent in 2024 and stood at 77.31 per cent at the end of last year.
预算中心对今年补充预算的另一项评估显示，截至6月底，该比率为76.62%。
A separate Budget Centre assessment of this year’s supplementary budget put the rate at 76.62 per cent at the end of June.
更为重要的是，众多一类编制——即预期在任何冲突中奔赴前线作战的精锐部队——的人员编制率仍低于80%的基准。
More significantly, numerous Category I formations – elite troops expected to fight on the front line of any conflict – remained below the 80 per cent staffing benchmark.
这些部队包括陆军步兵、机械化步兵、特种作战、炮兵、装甲、反装甲和国土防卫部队，以及海军陆战队步兵、装甲和炮兵编制。
They included army infantry, mechanised infantry, special operations, artillery, armour, anti-armour and territorial defence units, as well as Marine Corps infantry, armour and artillery formations.
海军舰队和岸基导弹部队、空军导弹部队以及军政警察第202指挥部也未达到该标准。
Naval fleet and shore-based missile units, air force missile units and the military police’s 202nd Command were also below the threshold.
预算中心警告称，人力短缺可能阻碍台湾在面对人民解放军日益增长的压力而加速军事采购过程中，操作新武器所需专业人员的培训和长期留存。
The centre warned that the shortages could hinder the training and long-term retention of the specialised personnel needed to operate new weapons as Taiwan accelerates military procurement amid growing pressure from the People’s Liberation Army.
北京视台湾为中国的一部分，必要时可武力统一。包括美国在内的大多数国家不承认自我管理的台湾为独立国家，但华盛顿反对任何一方以武力单方面改变两岸现状，并承诺向台湾提供武器。
Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise self-ruled Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any unilateral change to the cross-strait status quo by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
分析人士表示，先进武器需要高技能人员操作，而这些人员往往需要长期训练。
Analysts said sophisticated weapons required highly skilled personnel who often needed lengthy training.
“如果志愿役兵源维持在80%以下，将越来越难以培训和留住足够的操作人员，”台北台湾国际战略学会执行长罗致政（Max Lo）表示。
“If volunteer staffing remains below 80 per cent, it will become increasingly difficult to train and retain enough operators,” said Max Lo, executive director of the Taipei-based Taiwan International Strategic Study Society.
他说，如果情况持续，该岛武装力量可能会经历一个“有武器，但不一定有足够人员操作”的困难时期。
If the situation continued, the island’s armed forces were likely to experience a difficult period in which “there are weapons, but not necessarily enough people to operate them”, he said on Thursday.
罗致政表示，军方应重组兵力并重新分配人力，而非死板地试图让现有编制维持满员状态。
Lo said the military should restructure its forces and reallocate manpower rather than rigidly trying to keep its existing organisation fully staffed.
军事分析师、前国防部发言人吕德运表示，人力短缺直接削弱了作战效能。
Military analyst Lu De-yun, a former defence ministry press secretary, said shortages directly eroded operational effectiveness.
“第一，你必须延长人员值班时间，这会增加疲劳，”吕德运说。“第二，你可能不得不以更少人员操作系统。如果一个系统本应由10人操作，你可能不得不凑合用9人或8人。这将降低武器系统的效能。”他说，人力短缺对初级士官（NCO）的负担尤为沉重，他们可能同时负责人事、纪律、训练和行政工作。
“First, you have to extend people’s duty hours, which increases fatigue,” Lu said. “Second, you may have to operate systems with fewer personnel. If a system is supposed to be operated by 10 people, you may have to make do with nine or eight. That will reduce the effectiveness of the weapons system.”He said shortages were particularly burdensome for junior non-commissioned officers (NCOs), who could simultaneously be responsible for personnel, discipline, training and administration.
随着台湾接收包括66架现代化F-16战机在内的新型美制武器，同时扩充导弹和无人能力，这一问题可能变得更加突出。
The problem could become more pronounced as Taiwan takes delivery of new US weapons, including 66 modernised F-16 fighter jets, while expanding its missile and unmanned capabilities.
国民党籍立委徐巧芯质疑，空军是否有足够飞行员同时操作新战机和现有机队。
Hsu Chiao-hsin, a legislator with the main opposition Kuomintang, has questioned whether the air force will have enough pilots for the new fighters alongside its existing fleet.
然而，空军表示，尽管有些飞行员提前离职或拒绝延长服役，其飞行员编制率仍保持在90%以上。
The air force, however, has said that despite some pilots leaving early or declining to extend their service, its pilot staffing rate remains above 90 per cent.
位于台北的战略前瞻协会研究员洁杰（Chieh Chung）表示，这一标题数据可能掩盖了一个更严重的问题——缺乏经验丰富的飞行员来训练和领导年轻飞行员。
Chieh Chung, a researcher with the Taipei-based Association of Strategic Foresight, said the headline figure could conceal a more serious problem – the loss of experienced pilots needed to train and lead younger aviators.
台湾计划组建另一个战斗机联队，并增编107名飞行官，以操作2019年从美国订购的66架新型F-16V战机。首批两架飞机在多次延迟后于上周交付。
Taiwan plans to form another fighter wing and add 107 flight officers to operate the 66 new F-16Vs ordered from the United States in 2019. The first two aircraft were delivered last week after repeated delays.
然而，洁杰指出，用于留住经验丰富的飞行官的奖金资金明年将下降约4%，这标志着连续第四年年度下降。他说，这一趋势表明经验丰富的飞行员流失尚未得到缓解。
However, funding for bonuses designed to retain experienced flight officers would fall by about 4 per cent next year, marking a fourth consecutive annual decline, Chieh noted. He said the trend suggested the departure of experienced pilots had yet to ease.
他警告：“即使总体飞行员编制满足需求，飞行部队也可能缺乏足够的经验丰富的上校和中校，以担任教官、飞行领队和任务指挥官。”
“Even if overall pilot staffing meets requirements, flying units could lack enough experienced majors and lieutenant colonels to serve as instructors, flight leads and mission commanders,” he warned.
他说，这意味着空军的作战能力不一定会随着战斗机机队的扩张而按比例增长。
That meant the air force’s combat capability would not necessarily increase in proportion to the expansion of its fighter fleet, he said.
兵力短缺问题在义务兵中也十分突出，而义务兵是下士军官的主要来源。
The manpower shortage is also acute among enlisted personnel, the main pool from which NCOs are drawn.
洁杰表示，下士军官短缺可能造成特别严重的影响，因为他们构成了部队的作战骨干，并且通常比新分配的军官更熟悉任务和程序。
Chieh said NCO shortages could be particularly damaging because they formed the operational backbone of units and were often more familiar with missions and procedures than newly assigned officers.
预算中心也警告称，长期的人口结构压力日益显著。适用于义务役的男性人数在2023年首次降至10万人以下，并预计明年将降至8万人以下。
The Budget Centre also warned of longer-term demographic pressures. The number of men eligible for compulsory service fell below 100,000 for the first time in 2023 and is projected to fall below 80,000 next year.
执政党民主进步党立法员陈冠廷表示，台湾年轻人口的不可逆转下降意味着坚持保持传统大规模编制全员到岗是不现实的。
Ruling Democratic Progressive Party legislator Chen Kuan-ting said the irreversible decline in Taiwan’s young population meant it was unrealistic to insist on keeping traditional large formations fully staffed.
他呼吁“更广泛地使用无人机、自动化监控和人工智能系统，以减少在物流、监控和侦察等领域的人力需求”。
He called for “greater use of drones, automated surveillance and artificial intelligence systems to reduce manpower requirements in areas including logistics, surveillance and reconnaissance”.
国防部表示，一直在努力遏制人员流失，改善招聘和保留，放宽部分入伍要求，提高若干类军事人员的津贴，并改善军人的薪酬和生活条件。
The defence ministry said it had been working to stem personnel losses, improve recruitment and retention, relax some entry requirements, raise allowances for several categories of military personnel and improve pay and living conditions.