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福特停产电动卡车,随后需求激增Ford Killed Its Electric Truck. Then Demand Surged

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福特于12月停产的F-150闪电在二手市场上需求旺盛。来源:福特汽车公司。The F-150 Lightning, which Ford stopped making in December, is in high demand on the used market. Source: Ford Motor Co.

凯尔·斯托克报道,要让福特汽车的电动皮卡成为销售冠军,公司只需停止生产它。

It turns out, to make Ford Motor’s electric pickup truck a sales champion, the company just had to stop making it.

自去年12月最后一辆F-150 Lightning下线以来,它已成为美国最抢手的汽车之一,并在火热的二手电动汽车市场中成为一颗闪亮的余烬。需求激增表明,只要价格不过高,美国司机对电动皮卡的需求仍然旺盛,Plug公司(一家批发电动汽车经销商)首席执行官吉米·道格拉斯如是说。

Since the final F-150 Lightning rolled off the assembly line in December, it has become one of the most coveted cars in America and a glowing ember in the red-hot market for used electric vehicles. The surging demand shows that there is plenty of appetite for electric trucks among US drivers, provided the pickups aren’t too expensive, said Jimmy Douglas, CEO of Plug, a wholesale electric vehicle dealer.

“福特全新销售时,成本核算很复杂,”道格拉斯说。“但二手车的话,Lightning的价格只有原厂指导价的50%到60%,这真是个甜蜜点;用同样的钱,它是一辆不可思议的好卡车。”除了高价之外,卡车司机转向电动车也较为缓慢,因为这些车辆空气动力学性能不佳。半吨皮卡的方正造型和沉重重量会限制续航里程。然而,燃油卡车在里程表现上面临相同的物理限制。简而言之,皮卡爱好者感受到的油价冲击——因伊朗战争导致油价飙升——比普通司机更为强烈。

“When Ford was selling it brand new, the math was complicated,” Douglas said. “But used, the Lightning is 50% to 60% of the sticker price and that is really a sweet spot; it’s an incredible truck for the money.”In addition to being put off by high prices, truck drivers have been relatively slow to go electric because the machines aren’t very aerodynamic. The boxy build and hefty weight of a half-ton pickup hamstring driving range. However, combustion trucks fight the same physics when it comes to mileage. Pickup fans, in short, have felt the sting of the high gas prices, spiked by the Iran war, more keenly than most drivers.

稀缺性也起到了推动作用。在表现良好的一年里,福特大约能卖出90万辆燃油版F-150,而其电动版在四年多时间里仅售出略多于10万辆。

Scarcity has helped too. In a good year, Ford sells about 900,000 gas-powered F-150s, whereas it moved slightly more than 100,000 of its electric version in a little over four years.

在美国,典型的Lightning大约20天就能易主,而平均二手车需要44天。根据Edmunds.com的数据,其价格已稳步升至5万美元,较年初上涨了4%。

The typical Lightning is changing hands in about 20 days in the US, versus 44 days for the average used vehicle. The price has steadily risen to $50,000, an increase of 4% since the start of the year, according to Edmunds.com.

此外,近三分之一的二手Lightning是由经销其他品牌的经销商出售的。道格拉斯表示,这些店通常会将二手福特转卖给福特经销商,但如今许多经销商选择直接挂牌出售,以抢购这火热的市场需求。

And nearly one-third of used Lightnings are being sold by dealerships that peddle other brands. Typically, those stores would flip a used Ford to a Ford dealer, according to Douglas, but many are electing to list the car directly to tap red-hot demand.

蔡斯·诺里斯是科罗拉多州滑雪区的一名县规划师,最近他把油动力F-150换成了一辆二手闪电皮卡。他表示,这辆车售价4万美元,既是一次重大升级,也是一笔划算的买卖。

Chase Norris, a county planner in Colorado ski country, recently ditched his gas F-150 for a used Lightning. At $40,000, he considered the vehicle both a major upgrade and a bargain.

“它对环境更好,而且比一些野马还快,”诺里斯说。“而且我经常去露营;如果晚上天气变冷,我只需把电热毯插到车上的插座里就行。”然而,对诺里斯这样的客户来说,闪电皮卡的另一大吸引力在于,他们几乎感觉不到与传统版本的区别。闪电皮卡的外观几乎与油动力版完全相同 — — 连驾驶舱也是如此,甚至包括那个可以折叠进中控台的巨大档位选择杆。

“It’s better for the environment and it happens to be faster than some Mustangs,” Norris said. “And I go camping a lot; if it gets cold at night I can just plug my electric blanket into the outlet.”Part of the appeal for customers like Norris, however, is they won’t notice much of a difference. The exterior of the Lightning is pretty much identical to the gas-powered version — so is the cabin, right down to the massive gear selector, which folds down into the center console.

唯一明显的电动车特征是前备箱被拉长,原本火花塞和气缸所在的位置现在变成了一个巨大的前储物空间。在紧急情况下,这辆卡车甚至可以为房屋供电。

The only apparent EV exception is the yawning front trunk where the spark plugs and cylinders used to be. In a pinch, the truck can also power a house.

福特推出闪电皮卡的核心赌注是:电动车买家只不过是想要一辆更安静、更环保、燃料和维护成本更低的车辆的司机。“福特能做的最好的事情之一,”道格拉斯说,“就是让F-150闪电看起来就像一辆普通的F-150。”但根据分析师的说法,福特从未真正兑现其承诺 — — 即以与油动力卡车相当的价格出售其电动皮卡。车辆发布时宣传的4万美元窗口贴纸价很快被撤下,取而代之的是5万美元的标价。

Ford’s straightforward bet with the Lightning was that EV buyers were simply drivers who wanted a vehicle that was quieter, easier on the environment and cheaper to fuel and maintain. “One of the best things Ford could have done,” Douglas said, “is making the F-150 Lightning look like an F-150.”The problem, according to analysts, is that Ford never really delivered on its promise to sell its battery-powered pickup at prices in line with its gas trucks. The $40,000 window sticker trumpeted at the vehicle launch was quickly scrubbed off and replaced by $50,000.

蔡斯·诺里斯放弃了他的燃油版F-150,转而购买了一辆售价4万美元的二手电动版。Chase Norris ditched his gas-burning F-150 for a used electric version that cost $40,000.

即便是这个价格,在经销商处也很少见到实际成交。根据埃德蒙兹公司的数据,福特在首年销售中,F-150闪电的平均成交价(即买家实际支付的金额)达到7.9万美元,因为福特生产了更多配置更高、价格更昂贵的版本。与此同时,油动力F-150的平均成交价比闪电低1.9万美元。即使是这样的定价,福特在其电动车业务上仍然亏损惨重 — — 在某个时期,每售出一辆车就亏损超过10万美元。

Even that number was seldom evident on dealership lots. In its first year of sales, the average transaction price on an F-150 Lightning — what buyers actually paid — was $79,000, because Ford made a greater share of fancier, higher-priced iterations of the vehicle, according to Edmunds.com. Meanwhile, gas F-150s were going for $19,000 less on average. Even at those levels, Ford was losing heaps of money on its EVs, at one point more than $100,000 for each unit sold.

然而,在二手车市场,Lightning的价格与燃油版F-150相当。在价格持平的情况下,客户似乎同样甚至更喜欢电动版,至少在油价高企时是这样。

On the used market, however, Lightning prices are comparable to those of gas-powered F-150s. At parity, it appears customers like the EV version as much or more than the traditional machine, at least when gas prices are dear.

EV Group是一家在全国三家经销商处销售二手电动汽车的公司,其首席执行官兼联合创始人Alex Lawrence表示,他们看到很多客户将福特Lightning作为第二辆皮卡购买。客户在工作日通勤时驾驶电动车,周末则启动燃油版车型。

The EV Group, which sells pre-owned battery-powered vehicles nationwide from three dealerships, has seen a lot of customers buying Ford Lightnings as a second truck. They drive the electric rig during the weekly commute and fire up the gas model on weekends, according to EV Group CEO and cofounder Alex Lawrence.

“当你算一下他们能省下多少钱时,”Lawrence说,“有时候二手电动车实际上是免费的,如果这说得通的话。”不过目前,Lawrence的经销场没有Lightning可售。尽管他的门店每月大约售出300辆车,但他无法获得任何二手电动F-150——至少不是以合适的价格。

“When you do the math on how much they’re going to save,” Lawrence said, “sometimes the used EV is free, if that makes sense.”At the moment, though, Lawrence’s lots are Lightning free. Even though his stores are selling about 300 vehicles a month, he can’t get his hands on any used electric F-150s — at least not at the right price.

最终,福特决定停产Lightning,这是其对整个电动汽车战略进行激进调整的一部分。公司在加州成立了一个新的“臭鼬工厂”(skunkworks),旨在高效生产一款价格亲民的电动皮卡,并且还能实现盈利。

Ultimately, Ford’s decision to kill the Lightning was part of an aggressive retooling of its entire EV strategy. The company set up a new skunkworks in California to make an affordable electric truck — and to do so efficiently enough to also turn a profit.

福特承诺明年将推出一款全新电动皮卡,命名为Fathom,起售价约为28,000美元。尽管Lightning年销量从未超过34,000辆,但福特希望每年能售出10万辆新皮卡。CarGurus Inc.(一个数字销售平台)市场情报总监Kevin Roberts表示,近期二手Lightning的需求强劲,这预示着Fathom的销售前景良好。

Next year, Ford promises an all-new electric pickup, dubbed Fathom, with a starting sticker price around $28,000. Although Lightning sales never topped 34,000 a year, Ford hopes to sell 100,000 of the new pickups annually. Kevin Roberts, director of market intelligence at CarGurus Inc., a digital sales platform, said recent demand for used Lightnings bodes well for Fathom sales.

“二手电动汽车的需求表明,当价值主张合适时,客户愿意考虑购买电动汽车,”罗伯茨说。“福特宣布的[贴纸价]使Fathom直接进入了该可负担性的讨论。”福特拒绝置评,但已承认,使电动汽车的经济性在利润和低价之间取得平衡仍是一项艰巨的任务。上周在一次会议上,福特首席执行官吉姆·法利表示,公司“尚未成功着陆”其新电动汽车平台的大规模生产。

“Used EV demand has shown customers are willing to consider electric when the value proposition is right,” Roberts said. “Ford’s announced [sticker price] puts the Fathom directly into that affordability conversation.”Ford declined to comment, but has acknowledged that getting EV economics tuned for both profit and low prices remains a tough exercise. At a conference last week, Ford CEO Jim Farley said the company “hasn’t landed the plane yet” on mass production of its new EV platform.

“要在规模、成本和时间上推出这一项目,将是一项艰巨的努力,”他解释道。

“It’s going to be a heck of an effort,” he explained, “to launch this at scale, at cost, on time.”