
东京 — — 日本的年轻购房者面临着一个鲜明的选择:在房价进一步上涨之前,以高借贷成本购买房产;或者通过租房避免拥有房产的财务承诺,并将储蓄投资于其他渠道,以寻求通胀超额收益。
TOKYO -- Young homebuyers in Japan face a stark choice: Purchase at high borrowing costs before prices rise further, or avoid the financial commitment of ownership by renting and investing savings elsewhere in search of inflation-beating returns.
后一种选择正受到关注,因为东京股市的牛市已延续至第四年。房地产公司和投资基金作出回应,通过开发和融资更多租赁住房来满足需求,这些住房承诺提供便利,如靠近车站、高品质共享设施以及无需拥有即可获得的经济适用性。
The latter option has drawn interest as Tokyo stocks extend a bull run into a fourth year. Property companies and investment funds have responded by developing and financing more rentals that promise convenience in terms of proximity to train stations, high-quality shared amenities and affordability without ownership.
大和房屋工业集团旗下的宇宙初始(Cosmos Initia)是扩大供应的公司之一,在东京中心提供面积不到20平方米的公寓,月租金低至111,000日元(约合700美元)。典型的合住特色包括设备齐全的共享厨房和其他公共设施,如时尚装饰的休息室、共享办公空间和影音室。野村不动产开发和三井不动产住宅也正在积极布局合住领域。
Cosmos Initia, an Daiwa House Industry affiliate, is among the companies expanding the supply of apartments of less than 20 square meters in central Tokyo for as little as 111,000 yen ($700) a month. Typical co-living features include well-equipped shared kitchens and other communal facilities such as a stylishly furnished lounge, coworking space and theater room. Nomura Real Estate Development and Mitsui Fudosan Residential are also making a presence in the co-living sector.
不仅在日本,而且在亚太地区的关键市场,结构性主题正在支撑租赁住房的投资案例。
Not only in Japan, but across key Asia-Pacific markets, structural themes are supporting the case for rental housing.
全球利率正在上升,这是由于对伊朗战争导致的石油供应中断引发的通胀担忧所推动的人工智能投资激增也加剧了价格压力,同时提振了股市并为投资者带来意外之财。利率上升甚至已经波及日本——这个长期与极低借贷成本挂钩的国家——使其收益率升至三十年来的高点。然而,其房地产市场依然强劲,因为这些利率仍然相对较低。
Interest rates are rising globally amid inflation concerns fueled by oil supply disruptions from the Iran war. A surge in artificial intelligence investment has also added to price pressure while buoying stock markets and delivering windfalls to investors. Higher rates have even reached Japan, long associated with rock-bottom borrowing costs, lifting its yields to three-decade highs. Yet its property market remains strong, as those rates remain relatively low.
住房需求因日本的城市集中和澳大利亚的移民而得到提振,BNP巴黎巴资产管理另类投资部亚太地区负责人安托万·梅斯尼亚克(Antoine Mesnage)如是说。
Housing demand has strengthened on factors such as urban concentration in Japan and immigration in Australia, says Antoine Mesnage, head of Asia-Pacific at BNP Paribas Asset Management Alts.
德意志银行旗下资产管理部门DWS Group计划通过与开发商合作建设新物业,首次投资澳大利亚的租赁用途专门建造的公寓,即所谓的建建租(BTR)项目。"最佳选择将是中端市场,或者说中等收入者能够负担得起的租赁房源,我们认为这也会受到我们投资者的欢迎,"DWS亚太地区房地产研究主管小畑一郎表示。
DWS Group, an asset management arm of Deutsche Bank, is planning its first investments in Australia's purpose-built rental apartments known as build-to-rent (BTR), by partnering with developers to build new properties. "The best spot would be in the mid-market, or what the middle-income earners can rent, which we think would be taken well also by our investors," said Koichiro Obu, head of real estate research for Asia-Pacific at DWS.
BNP的Mesnage也在关注澳大利亚的中端租赁房产。虽然许多BTR项目属于高端 — — 有些甚至配备了保龄球馆和卡拉OK工作室 — — 但他认为中端市场才是"需求深度所在、需求压力所在"。Mesnage还喜欢东京的租赁公寓,或者说多户住宅板块。他表示,这是一个"具有规模、流动性、非常稳定的住宅需求"的市场,人口密集且失业率低。
BNP's Mesnage is also looking at mid-market rental properties Down Under. While many BTRs are high-end -- some are equipped with bowling alleys and karaoke studios -- he sees the mid-market as "where the depth of the demand is and where the pressure of the demand is." Mesnage also likes Tokyo's rental apartment, or multifamily, sector. It is a "market that has scale, liquidity, very stable residential demand" with a dense population and low unemployment, he said, A furnished lounge in a six-story co-living property developed by Mitsui Fudosan Residential.
他提到,由三井不动产住宅开发的六层共享生活公寓内设有家具齐全的休息区。该项目位于市中心,通过提供小户型单元配合大型共享空间(包括剧院、健身房和厨房)来保持租金适中。
The centrally located property keeps rents moderate by offering smaller units alongside large shared spaces, including a theater, gym and kitchen.
政府数据显示,自6月以来,东京的租赁住房开工量一直以两位数的速度增长,超过了自住住房的开工量。
Rental housing starts have grown at a double-digit pace in Tokyo since June, outstripping starts for owner-occupied homes, government data show.
新冠疫情之后,年轻单身人士越来越重视便捷的公共交通访问,而双收入夫妻也同样优先考虑可达性。由于许多人被排除在购房市场之外,越来越多的人选择租房。在利率上升的背景下,建筑和融资成本上升加剧了供应短缺,推高了房价和租金。
Young singles increasingly place a premium on convenient access to public transportation after the COVID-19 pandemic, while dual-income couples also prioritize accessibility. And as many are priced out of buying, more are opting to rent. Higher construction and financing costs amid rising interest rates have exacerbated the shortage of supply, pushing up property prices and rents.
根据房地产信息服务提供商At Home的数据,8月份,东京23区单人户家庭的公寓平均挂牌租金达到自2015年有数据可查以来的最高水平,较去年同期上涨了10%。
In August, average asking rents for apartments for single-person households in Tokyo's 23 wards reached their highest level since data became available in 2015, according to real estate information service provider At Home.
日本投资公司光通信(Hikari Tsushin)与私募股权公司MBK Partners及NEC Capital Solutions的关联公司合作,于9月宣布收购管理超过54万套公寓单位的Leopalace21,交易金额最高可达2676亿日元。
Rents rose 10% from a year earlier. Japanese investment company Hikari Tsushin, in partnership with private equity firm MBK Partners and an affiliate of NEC Capital Solutions, announced in September an acquisition worth up to 267.6 billion yen of Leopalace21, which manages more than 540,000 apartment units.
此前,加拿大投资集团布鲁克菲尔德(Brookfield)斥资超过1000亿日元收购了位于东京大圈、大阪大圈、名古屋和福冈等主要门户地区的50栋租赁公寓楼。该公司日本不动产部门负责人Ikushin Tsuchida表示,这些资产“得益于长期城市化、韧性住房需求以及新供应受限”。
This followed Canadian investment group Brookfield's more than 100 billion yen acquisition of 50 rental apartment buildings across the major gateways of Greater Tokyo, Greater Osaka, Nagoya and Fukuoka. The assets are "underpinned by long-term urbanization, resilient housing demand and constrained new supply," said Ikushin Tsuchida, the firm's head of Japan real estate.
6月,美国私募股权公司Warburg Pincus宣布以约12亿美元收购日本学生住房提供商J.S.B.然而,尽管受伊朗战争背景下物价上涨和借贷成本升高的影响,亚太地区面临一些逆风,但CBRE亚太地区研究主管Ada Choi认为这些影响有限且值得关注。
And in June, U.S. private equity firm Warburg Pincus announced the acquisition of Japanese student housing provider J.S.B. for about $1.2 billion. But headwinds affecting the Asia-Pacific in the form of rising prices and higher borrowing costs against the background of the Iran war are limited but worth noting, according to Ada Choi, head of research for Asia-Pacific at CBRE.
她表示:“到目前为止,中东冲突的影响主要体现在通胀上升和利率上升,这两者都可能削弱一些投资者对房地产的兴趣,包括居住类资产。”
"So far, the extent of the impact of the Middle East conflict has been on rising inflation and interest rates, both of which could dampen some investors' appetite for real estate, including the living sector," Choi said.
亚洲聚焦投资管理公司PAG日本办事处的实物资产首席投资官Dimitrios Vavougyios表示,尽管存在持续的地缘政治不确定性——包括美国的关税政策——日本仍是一个避风港。
Dimitrios Vavougyios, chief investment officer for real assets at the Japan office of Asia-focused investment management firm PAG, says the country is a haven amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, including U.S. tariff policies.
PAG的基金资本主要来源于北美和欧洲的主要机构投资者,包括养老金。Vavougyios表示:“随着大型开发商在建筑成本上升的情况下仍能可靠地交付项目,而高层住宅在一些其他市场中更广泛被接受,日本正成为资本更安全、更具吸引力的去处。”
PAG draws much of its fund capital from major institutional investors in North America and Europe, including pension funds. "Japan is becoming a safer, more attractive place for capital," Vavougyios said, as large developers reliably deliver projects even as construction costs rise, while high-rise living is more widely embraced than in some other markets.
但一些支持租赁增长前景的相同因素,也使得投资者更难以找到适合新开发的可行项目。例如,租赁型住房在澳大利亚仍是一个新兴类别,通常需要从零开始建设。
But some of the same factors supporting the rental growth outlook make it harder for investors to find viable projects for new development. For example, build-to-rent apartments are still an emerging category in Australia and generally need to be constructed from scratch.
虽然墨尔本和悉尼是投资的主要目的地,但寻找项目一直很困难,尤其是在悉尼,BNP的Mesnage表示。他说:“当建筑成本上升而土地成本未下降时,从经济角度来看,使项目可行变得更加困难。”
While Melbourne and Sydney are the main destinations for investment, it has been difficult to find projects, especially in the latter, said BNP's Mesnage. "It is harder to make it work from an economic perspective when construction costs increase and the cost of land has not decreased," he said.
M&G房地产全球住宅业务负责人Alex Greaves也提到了成本挑战。他表示,尽管学生住房在包括悉尼和墨尔本在内的市场中受益于强劲需求,“但澳大利亚市场供应紧张,因此回报率也相当紧张。”在东京,国际投资者面临两方面的担忧:利率上升以及限制租金上涨的传统租赁合同。
Alex Greaves, global head of living at M&G Real Estate, also mentioned cost challenges. He said that while student housing benefits from strong demand in markets including Sydney and Melbourne, "the Australian markets are tight, and so the returns are pretty tight." In Tokyo, investors have two sources of concern for international investors: rising interest rates and traditional lease contracts that constrain rent increases.
PAG的Vavougyios表示,租金上涨速度快于工资增长,而较高的利率正在对住房市场造成下行压力。“我们已经看到,在市场的一些部分,[租金]涨幅正在被限制。”悉尼的房地产挂牌信息可以在展示中看到。随着房价上涨,租房需求正在增长。
PAG's Vavougyios said rents are rising faster than wages, while higher interest rates are putting downward pressure on the housing market. "We already see that in some parts of the market, the [rent] increase is getting capped." Real estate listings can be seen on display in Sydney. Demand for rental housing is growing as property prices rise.
一些投资者正转向合租或短期住宿设施,以及带家具的出租房产,在这些情况下租户更具流动性,从而更容易提高租金。
Some investors are turning to co-living or short-stay facilities, as well as furnished rental properties, where tenants are more transient, making it easier to increase rents.
“我们试图寻找可以增值的资产……这包括对旧资产进行大量翻新……这样我们可以为租户提供更好的居住条件,并提升建筑的价值,”Vavougyios说。他补充道,随着翻新成本上升,除非租金相对较高,否则投资可能变得不经济。
"We try to look at assets where we can add value ... and this includes a lot of renovation of older assets ... so we can offer something better for the tenants and improve the value of the building," Vavougyios said. With renovation costs higher, investments can be uneconomical unless rents are relatively high, he added.
东京的多户住宅板块是"你能够抵御部分通胀"的领域,梅斯纳日如此表示,将其与传统办公租赁以及学生住房和医疗保健行业形成对比,在这些行业中,租金往往会在较长时间内保持固定。
Tokyo's multifamily sector is one in which "you're able to pass through some of the inflation," Mesnage said, contrasting it with traditional office leases and the student housing and healthcare sectors, where rents tend to be fixed for longer periods.
瓦武吉奥斯认为,利率是日本市场最大的风险。"我们对此非常重视,并预留了充足的安全边际,"他说。
Vavougyios sees interest rates as the biggest risk in the Japanese market. "We take that seriously into consideration, and we put a lot of margin for safety," he said.
亚洲的住宅板块在整体商业地产市场中仍占比较小,仅为7%,远低于欧洲和美国。但德意志资产管理集团的奥布预测,该板块将在未来十年左右实现增长,澳大利亚和日本将继续成为主要市场。
Asia's residential sector still represents a small share of the overall commercial real estate market, at just 7%, far lower than Europe and the U.S. But DWS Group's Obu predicts it will grow over the next decade or so, with Australia and Japan remaining the main markets.
然而,德意志资产管理集团尚未在韩国找到合适的投资机会,因为在那里很难找到符合其投资标准的房产,尤其是法规经常被修订,他补充道。
Still, DWS has yet to find the right opportunity in South Korea, where it is not easy to find properties that meet its investment criteria, especially as regulations are frequently revised, he added.
M&G的格里夫斯表示,他愿意探索在新加坡的投资。"新加坡的服务式公寓等板块具有吸引力,因为它们更适合短期租住的居住者,"他说。
M&G's Greaves said he is willing to explore investment in Singapore. "Sectors such as serviced apartments in Singapore are attractive because they lend themselves to a more transient-based occupier," he said.
布鲁克菲尔德的土田表示,该公司看好印度的机构租赁住房机会。奥布也看好其前景并预计市场将增长,"但监管环境仍在演变,需要时间。"M&G的格里夫斯强调,鉴于通胀、建筑成本上升及其他宏观经济不利因素,投资住宅物业具有长期收益。"虽然在经济不确定时期,消费者可能会减少零售或休闲方面的非必需支出,但住房需求往往更具韧性,因为人们难以轻易改变居住安排,"他说。"虽然[住宅板块]可能并不总是能带来最高回报,但它能提供稳定且可靠的收入流。"
Brookfield's Tsuchida said it sees opportunities in institutional rental housing in India. Obu also sees promise and expects the market to grow, "but the regulatory environment is still evolving, and it will take time." M&G's Greaves emphasized the long-term benefits of investing in residential properties given inflation, rising construction costs and other macroeconomic headwinds. "While consumers may reduce discretionary spending in retail or in leisure during periods of economic uncertainty, housing demand tends to be far more resilient as people cannot easily change their living arrangements," he said. "Whilst [the residential sector] may not always deliver the highest returns, it offers stable and dependable income streams."