纽约 – 多家初创公司正押注，他们可以利用人工智能（AI）在诸如股市走势、霍尔木兹海峡重新开放，甚至夏奇拉歌曲在音乐榜单上的表现等多样化议题上，做出比最专业的专家更精准的预测。
NEW YORK – Several start-ups are betting that they can leverage artificial intelligence (AI) to make better forecasts than even the most specialised experts when it comes to topics as varied as stock market movements, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, or how a Shakira song will perform on music charts.
到2030年，“我们会感觉到，我们过去为决策所做的一切不过是石器时代的思维”，预测公司FutureSearch的联合创始人丹·施瓦茨如是说。
By 2030, “we’re going to feel that what we were doing for our decision-making was complete Stone Age thinking”, Dan Schwarz, co-founder of the forecasting company FutureSearch, said.
得益于从公共和私人来源获取的海量数据，AI预测模型如今已能与最优秀的“超级预测者”相媲美——这些人的估计能力远超普通人。
AI forecasting models are already on a par with the best “superforecasters” – gifted individuals whose estimates are markedly superior to those of ordinary people – thanks to troves of data acquired from both public and private sources.
9月初，两款AI模型在Metaculus Cup中创造历史，该赛事汇聚了人类和非人类的预测冠军，而这两款AI模型竟双双夺得前两名。
In early September, two AI models made history when they took the top spots in the Metaculus Cup, a competition among prediction champions, both human and non-human.
FutureSearch的内部人类“巫师”、超级预测者汤姆·利普泰意识到，“他在中期内可能失去工作保障”，施瓦茨透露。“他明白这些技术终将超越他。”
FutureSearch’s in-house human wizard, superforecaster Tom Liptay, is aware that “he’s not secure in his job” in the medium term, Schwarz said. “He knows that these things are going to surpass him.”
Theo Summer与Veniamin Veselovsky共同创立了Preseen，他利用AI工具，在仅七个月内将35美元（约44.80新元）在预测平台Kalshi上变成了190万美元。
Theo Summer, who co-founded Preseen with Veniamin Veselovsky, used AI tools to turn US$35 (S$44.80) into US$1.9 million in just seven months on the American prediction-making site Kalshi.
其核心思想不是保证结果，而是定义事件发生的概率，并具备交叉验证多个相互关联事件假设的能力——例如，石油价格变动与中东战争之间的关联。
“目前，反应最快的买家通常是对冲基金，这是因为只要他们认为能从某件事中赚钱，他们就能迅速行动，”韦塞洛夫斯基说道。
The idea is not to guarantee a result but to define a probability of occurrence, with the ability to cross-check assumptions related to several interconnected events – for example, changes in the price of oil and the war in the Middle East“Right now, the quickest buyers are normally the hedge funds, just because if they think they can make money off something, they can move pretty fast,” Veselovsky said.
算法已经影响华尔街十多年，但人工智能预测的兴起可能会进一步加剧金融市场的自动化。“我认为它可能已经产生了小规模影响，因为我们已经有客户在做交易决策时使用它，”另一家名为Mantic的预测初创公司的联合创始人托比·舍夫兰说。
Algorithms have shaped Wall Street for more than a decade, but the rise of AI forecasting is likely to further increase the automation of financial markets“I think it’s probably already having a small impact because we already have customers who use it when making trading decisions,” said Toby Shevlane, the co-founder of another forecasting start-up called Mantic.
如今声名鹊起的预测市场Kalshi和Polymarket，被数百万美国人使用，也正被人工智能的使用所淹没。
Now-famous prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, which are used by millions of Americans, are also becoming inundated by AI use.
对于没有昂贵人工智能工具的散户投资者来说，他们可能很快就无法在这些面向消费者的交易平台上获利了，因为“它们很快就会被人工智能预测系统主导”，韦塞洛夫斯基说。风险管理 最先进的模型不仅仅是预测事件。
It might soon be too late for retail investors, who do not have access to expensive AI tools, to profit on those types of consumer-oriented trading sites because “they will soon just be dominated by AI forecasting systems,” Veselovsky said. Risk management The most advanced models no longer just predict events, either.
它们还能够自行提出关于未来的问题，然后根据不同的可能结果分配概率，舍夫兰说。
They can also formulate their own questions about the future and then assign probabilities based on the different possible outcomes, Shevlane said.
它们的影响范围也开始超越金融领域，具有在政府政策、企业决策、科学研究和保险风险评估方面的潜在应用。
Their sphere of influence is beginning to extend beyond finance, as well, with potential applications in government policy, corporate decision-making, scientific research, and insurance risk assessments.
Mantic为一家大型美国公司提供其所在行业监管发展的可能情景，也曾为英国政府提供服务。公司“对风险及其监控方式很感兴趣”，舍夫兰说。
Mantic provides a large American company with likely scenarios of regulatory developments in its sector and has also worked for the British government. Companies “are interested in risks and how to monitor them”, Shevlane said.
与此同时，其他客户可能更关注医学研究，特别是帮助决定哪些类型的治疗最值得资助，施瓦茨说。尽管这些工具的广泛普及可能带来好处，但也伴随着成本。
Meanwhile, other customers might be more interested in medical research, particularly to help make decisions around which types of treatments would be best to fund, Schwarz said. Widespread access to these types of tools can come with costs, though.
“我认为这可以带来好处，”韦塞洛夫斯基说，但“我也有点害怕，因为你知道，也许俄罗斯或中国拥有更好的系统。”法新社
“I think that good can be derived from this,” Veselovsky said, but “I’m also a little bit scared because, you know, maybe Russia or China has better systems.”AFP