北京——中国正处于成为世界银行所划分的高收入国家的边缘。但北京宁愿不被归类为世界富裕国家之一。随着美国和中国在争夺影响力，北京把自己塑造成拉美、非洲和亚洲全球南方国家的捍卫者。它还从其在国际组织中的“发展中”身份中获益，例如无需向一些应对气候变化的全球基金作出贡献。根据官方通报，国家主席习近平在2024年联合国活动的视频致辞中表示：“中国永远是全球南方和发展中国家的一员。”
BEIJING—China is on the cusp of becoming a high-income country by the World Bank’s classification. But Beijing would rather not be grouped with the world’s wealthy nations. As the U.S. and China battle for influence, Beijing has presented itself as a champion of Global South nations in Latin America, Africa and Asia. And it benefits from its current status in international groups as “developing,” including by not having to contribute to some global funds to fight climate change.“China will always be a member of the Global South and the developing world,” leader Xi Jinping said in a video address at a United Nations event in 2024, according to an official readout.
然而，中国很可能在2026年进入高收入类别，届时世界银行将在次年7月发布其计算结果。世界银行依据居民和企业在国内及国外获得的总收入——即国民总收入（GNI）来划分类别，并采用一种平衡汇率波动的方法将其他货币折算为美元。2025年，世界银行测得中国的人均GNI为14,230美元，仅低于高收入门槛14,375美元。
Nonetheless, China is likely to reach the high-income category for 2026 when the World Bank releases its calculations next July. The bank defines its categories using gross national income—the total money earned by a country’s residents and businesses both domestically and abroad. It translates other currencies into dollars using a method to smooth out exchange-rate fluctuations. For 2025, the World Bank measured China’s GNI per capita at $14,230, just below the high-income threshold of $14,375.
根据联合国开发计划署亚太地区首席经济学家菲利普·舍勒肯斯的分析，2026年的高收入门槛可能升至14,554美元，这意味着中国的人均GNI只需增长2.3%即可超过该门槛，这一增幅远低于其历史增长率。世界银行所定义的“高收入”并不一定等同于美国人眼中的富裕。去年，美国的人均国民总收入为88,810美元。各国际组织对国家的分类体系各不相同。
The high-income threshold is likely to rise to $14,554 for 2026, meaning China’s GNI per capita would need to grow by 2.3% to cross it, well below its historical growth rate, according to an analysis by Philip Schellekens, chief economist for Asia and the Pacific at the United Nations Development Program.“High-income” by the World Bank’s definition doesn’t necessarily mean rich as Americans would perceive it. Last year, U.S. gross national income per capita was $88,810. Each international body has its own system for classifying nations.
国际货币基金组织将中国视为新兴市场和发展中经济体，联合国也将其归类为发展中国家。
The International Monetary Fund calls China an emerging and developing economy, and the U.N. also calls it developing.
世界贸易组织允许各国自行划分，而中国将自己归入发展中国家类别。“我倾向于相信，中国将尽最大努力避免被归类为发达经济体，”法国兴业银行（Natixis）亚太地区首席经济学家阿莉西亚·加西亚-埃雷罗（Alicía García-Herrero）表示。根据世界银行的定义，中国在2010年成为中等偏上收入国家，当时它还以国内生产总值超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体。
The World Trade Organization lets countries self-designate, and China puts itself into the developing category.“I’m tempted to believe China will do its utmost not to be classified as a developed economy,” said Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at the French bank Natixis. By the World Bank’s definition, China became an upper-middle-income country in 2010, when it also surpassed Japan as the world’s second-largest economy by gross domestic product.“It’s just amazing how China managed to climb up the income ladder so quickly,” said Schellekens, the U.N. economist.
“中国能够如此迅速地攀升收入阶梯，真是令人惊叹，”联合国经济学家谢勒肯斯（Schellekens）表示。鉴于中国是世界最大的出口国，年贸易顺差超过1万亿美元的现实，中国去年表示，它不会寻求利用其发展中国家身份在世贸组织获得特殊待遇，例如延长协议实施期限。世界银行不使用“发达”或“发展中”国家的标签，并表示将在2031年前逐步停止对华贷款。
In a nod to the reality that it is the world’s largest exporter with an annual trade surplus topping $1 trillion, China said last year it wouldn’t seek to use its developing status to get special treatment at the WTO, such as longer time periods for implementing agreements. The World Bank, which doesn’t use developed or developing country labels, has said it will phase out loans to China by 2031.
其对华年度贷款额从2017年的24亿美元降至2025年的7.5亿美元。中国表示，其目标是到2035年达到“中等发达国家”水平的人均国内生产总值，官方媒体将这一目标描述为超过2万美元。中国把自己定位为非西方经济发展的典范，并创建了西方主导机构以外的融资和援助替代方案。谢勒肯斯表示，这种一概而论的标签可能具有误导性。
Its annual lending to China fell to $750 million in 2025, down from $2.4 billion in 2017. China has said it aims to attain the per-capita gross domestic product of a “midlevel developed country” by 2035, which state media has described as more than $20,000. It has positioned itself as a model for non-Western economic development and created alternatives to Western-led institutions for financing and aid. Schellekens said the blanket labels could be misleading.
上海、深圳等中国沿海城市如今在大多数标准下已经富裕多年，类似于亚洲其他地区的富裕首都，而中国最贫困的五分之一人口去年月均生活费低于约120美元。“从对人民的影响来看，”谢勒肯斯说，“仍然存在大量不平等。”请写信汉娜·米奥（Hannah Miao）hannah.miao@wsj.com
Coastal Chinese cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen have been rich for years now by most standards, resembling wealthy capitals in other parts of Asia, while the poorest quintile of people in China lived on less than roughly $120 a month last year.“In terms of what it means for people,” Schellekens said, “there’s still a lot of inequality.”Write to Hannah Miao at hannah.miao@wsj.com