白领行业正在以更少的人力实现更高的产出。尽管金融、科技和专业服务等行业的总体就业人数有所下降，但产出却在快速增长。燃烧玻璃研究所首席经济学家加德·莱万农研究了白领密集型行业的就业情况与实际国内生产总值的对比。他在一篇Substack文章中指出，自2022年底以来，金融、保险、信息以及专业和商务服务行业的就业人数总体下降了大约2%，而这些行业的实际产出却激增了16%。
The white-collar sector is doing more with less. While the number of total jobs has slid in industries like finance, tech, and professional services, output has been on a tear. Gad Levanon, the chief economist at the Burning Glass Institute, examined how employment in white-collar-heavy sectors compares with real gross domestic product. He wrote in a Substack article that employment in finance, insurance, information, and professional and business services is collectively down roughly 2% since the end of 2022, while real output for these sectors has soared by 16%.
这一群体就业人数的持续缓慢下降与历史模式相悖，凸显了工人和求职者正面临一个基本冻结、低招聘、低离职的就业市场。莱万农对《商业内幕》表示：“企业过去依靠顾问、承包商、呼叫中心和自身后台员工完成的工作，如今越来越多地由软件、云计算和IT公司承担，这些公司每位员工的产出远高于传统方式，且几乎不增加人员。”
The ongoing slow decline in employment for this group goes against historical patterns and highlights how workers and job seekers are facing a largely frozen, low-hire, low-fire job market. "A growing share of the work businesses used to get done by consultants, contractors, call centers and their own back-office staff is now delivered by software, cloud and IT firms, which produce far more per worker and add almost no staff," Levanon told Business Insider.
他说：“这就是该行业产出持续上升而招聘却已停滞的原因。”这种分化也可能打破经济增长与普通美国人生活水平提升之间的传统联系。“即使GDP持续强劲增长，也不一定能转化为人们的就业机会，也不一定能提升人们的生活质量，”Indeed招聘实验室的经济学家科里·斯塔勒说道。在这些行业寻找工作的人可能正面临挑战。
"That is why the sector's output keeps rising while its hiring has stopped." The divergence also risks breaking the traditional link between economic growth and rising fortunes for everyday Americans. "Even a strong, continual growth in GDP may not translate into jobs for people, may not translate into a higher quality of life for people as well," said Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab. People looking in these kinds of sectors may be having a challenging time.
“求职者需要记住，职业生涯通常不是在两三年内建立起来的，”斯塔勒说。“它通常是在两三十年的时间里逐步形成的。因此，当前的模式可能在几年后就会发生变化。所以，既要对数据作出反应，也不要因所见过度反应。”您在这些白领行业找工作吗？您是否曾经历过职业转型？
"It's important to remember for these job seekers that a career is not necessarily built over the course of two or three years," Stahle said. "It's usually built over the course of two or three decades. So what the pattern is now could easily shift a couple of years from now. So it's important to be reactive but not overreact to what we're seeing in the data, either." Have you been job searching in these white-collar sectors?
联系这位记者分享您的经历，邮箱为 mhoff@businessinsider.com。Levanon 在 Substack 上表示，这些白领岗位存在需求，但企业可以用更少的员工来满足需求。部分原因可能是雇主将优先事项转向利用 AI。Levanon 表示，AI 最擅长处理的“后台和初级任务”集中在他所研究的白领领域。穆迪分析公司高级总监 Dante DeAntonio 此前曾对《商业内幕》表示，白领岗位招聘不足主要源于对经济政策和 AI 的不确定性。
Have you had to make a career pivot? Reach out to this reporter to share what that's been like at mhoff@businessinsider.com. Levanon said on Substack that there's demand in these white-collar fields, but firms can meet it with fewer workers. Part of that could be due to employers shifting their priorities toward leveraging AI. Levanon said "the back-office and junior tasks" that AI performs best at are concentrated in the white-collar sectors he looked at. Dante DeAntonio, senior director at Moody's Analytics, previously told Business Insider that the lack of hiring in white-collar fields is largely due to uncertainty around economic policy and AI.
其他就业市场专家指出，在大型科技公司，雇主在疫情期间招聘激增之后有所收缩。就业市场的困境对缺乏多年经验的人来说可能尤为严峻。DeAntonio 说：“我认为企业肯定是全身心投入，试图寻找从 AI 中获得效率的方法。”“而且毫无疑问，首先受影响的很可能是年轻工人、刚毕业的大学生以及企业认为可能从 AI 中获得一些提升的岗位，以及一些来自 AI 的替代价值。”
Other job market experts have noted that in Big Tech, employers pulled back after the pandemic-era hiring surge. The job market's woes can be especially difficult for people who lack years of experience. "Firms, I think, are certainly diving in with both feet, trying to find ways to gain efficiency from AI," DeAntonio said. "And certainly the first domino to fall is likely to be a pullback in hiring amongst younger workers, new college grads, positions where firms think they might be able to get some uptick from AI, and some sort of replacement value from AI."
企业因采用 AI 工具而实际上是否更具生产力仍然是一个问题。麦肯锡北美公司高级合伙人兼北美区主席 Eric Kutcher 最近表示，存在个人层面的生产力提升，而非机构层面的提升。“有些人作为个体变得更有生产力，但他们只是在改变他们所做的一些工作，”他说。劳工统计局的数据显示，总体劳动生产率有所增加，但并未出现爆炸式增长。
Whether companies are actually more productive because they're incorporating AI tools remains a question. Eric Kutcher, a senior partner and chair of McKinsey North America, recently said that there are individual productivity increases, rather than institutional-level gains. "You have people that are getting more productive as individuals, but they're just changing some of the work that they're doing," he said. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed general labor productivity has increased, but not at a wildly accelerated clip.
“我们看到，近年来情况有所放缓，但即使在我们看到 ChatGPT 和 AI 开始进入市场之前，每位工人的产出和生产率就已经在上升，”Stahle 说。
"We have seen that things have slowed down in the last few years, but output per worker and productivity was climbing even before we saw ChatGPT and AI starting to come onto the scene," Stahle said.
“对我而言，这表明AI是这里故事的一部分，但不是全部故事。这是长期趋势的一部分。”
"To me, that says that AI is part of the story here, but not the complete story. This is part of a longer-term trend."
你一直在白领行业找工作吗？你不得不转型职业吗？请联系这位记者分享你的经历，邮箱是 mhoff@businessinsider.com。
Have you been job searching in these white-collar sectors? Have you had to make a career pivot? Reach out to this reporter to share what that's been like at mhoff@businessinsider.com.