预测市场平台Kalshi的交易者认为，通货膨胀可能已触及今年高点，但他们并不认为短期内会出现大幅回落。
Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think inflation likely reached a peak for the year, though they don't see a sharp move lower anytime soon.
交易者预计，将于美国东部时间周三上午8:30公布的9月消费者价格指数（CPI）将显示同比上涨3.6%。这一结果与FactSet的共识预测一致。
Traders think the September consumer price index, due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, will show a 3.6% increase year over year. That's in line with a FactSet consensus estimate.
这将高于8月份3.4%的涨幅。然而，Kalshi上的投机者认为，2026年通货膨胀创下新高的概率略低于三分之一。此前，同比通货膨胀率曾在5月份达到4.2%的峰值。该平台与通货膨胀相关的合约要求交易者预测9月份的CPI是否会高于特定水平，或是否会在2026年任何时间点突破某些水平。这些合约的最终结果将以美国劳工统计局的官方数据为准。
That would mark an increase from the 3.4% advance seen in August Yet speculators on Kalshi place just under one-in-three odds that inflation will hit new highs in 2026. Previously, year-over-year inflation peaked at 4.2% in May Inflation-related contracts on the platform ask traders if they think that CPI will come in above various levels for the month of September or if it will go above certain levels at any point in 2026. The contracts are resolved using the official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
根据FactSet的数据，核心通货膨胀率预计将稳定在2.4%的同比水平，同样符合经济学家的预测。然而，交易者认为，剔除食品和能源价格波动的核心通货膨胀率将在2026年剩余时间内保持高位。
Core inflation is predicted to remain steady at 2.4% year over year, also in line with economists' estimates, according to FactSet. However, traders think that core inflation — which excludes food and energy price changes — will remain elevated throughout the rest of 2026.
今年核心通货膨胀率跌破2.2%的可能性仅为6%。在2021年通货膨胀飙升之前，年度核心通货膨胀率最后一次低于这一水平。
There's just a 6% chance that core inflation falls below 2.2% this year. Annual core inflation was last below that level before the spike in inflation that began in 2021.