强厄尔尼诺现象可能导致亚洲出现比往常更暖的冬季，从而可能抑制能源需求，并缓解美伊战争带来的压力。
A severe El Niño is poised to drive a warmer-than-usual winter across Asia, potentially curbing energy demand and offering some relief from the strains caused by the US-Iran war.
主要的季节性天气模型显示，日本、韩国以及中国部分地区、台湾、越南、泰国和印度将出现普遍偏暖的冬季。这些国家部分能源需求依赖液化天然气，但战争已显著削减中东供应，并将现货价格推至自2022年底以来的最高水平。
Major seasonal weather models are pointing to a broadly warm winter across Japan, South Korea and parts of China, along with Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand and India. All of these countries rely on liquefied natural gas for part of their energy needs, but war has significantly curtailed supplies from the Middle East and pushed spot prices to the highest level since late 2022.
根据欧洲中期天气预报中心的季节性模型，日本和韩国预计在11月至2月期间平均气温将比常年高出1℃至2℃。到1月，中国大部分地区（人口稠密的东部海岸除外）也将逐步出现比常年高出多达2℃的气温偏差。
Japan and South Korea are expected to see average temperatures around 1C to 2C above normal from November through February, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ seasonal model. Warm deviations of as much as 2C higher than usual are also set to gradually encompass most of China, except the heavily populated eastern coast, by January.
日本、韩国和中国是亚洲最大的液化天然气进口国，需求减少可能释放货运量供欧洲使用，欧洲需要额外供应以在冬季前弥补低于正常水平的库存。气温偏高也可能减少煤炭消耗，而煤炭需求和价格在中东局势动荡后曾出现激增。战争前，全球约五分之一的液化天然气经霍尔木兹海峡运往全球客户。
The three countries are the top importers of LNG in Asia, and softer demand could free up cargoes for Europe, which needs additional supplies to bolster below-normal inventories ahead of winter. Above-normal temperatures could also reduce consumption of coal, which has seen a spike in demand and prices after the Middle East disruptions. Before the war, about a fifth of the world’s LNG was shipped through the Strait of Hormuz to global customers.
亚洲的这一预测与欧洲相对温暖冬季的预测相吻合，而美国西部、南部和东南部地区则预计将出现比常年更湿且略低的气温。
The outlook for Asia coincides with forecasts for a relatively warmer European winter, while swaths of the western, southern, and southeastern US are expected to be wetter and slightly colder than normal.
厄尔尼诺是一种自然发生的气候现象，通常会给亚洲带来温暖干燥的天气，减少降雨并加剧野火。虽然欧洲中期天气预报中心和其他一些季节性模型预测中国和日本将出现较暖的冬季，但全球天气气候分析公司（Global Weather Climate Analytics）董事总经理克里斯蒂安·沃纳表示，这一预测中也存在“隐藏风险”。
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that typically brings warm and dry conditions to Asia, curtailing rainfall and exacerbating wildfires. While the ECMWF and some other seasonal models are projecting a warmer winter in China and Japan, there are “hidden risks” within that outlook, said Christian Werner, managing director of Global Weather Climate Analytics.
他说：“在这种暖偏中嵌入了短暂的一到两周的平均或低于平均气温，这是由于极地涡旋向南更远的偏移所致。”极地涡旋是环绕北极的风带，它可能减弱并向南下沉，使得寒冷空气外泄，导致寒潮和供暖需求增加。
“Embedded within this warm bias are short one- to two-week periods of average to below-average temperatures due to a more southerly excursion of the polar vortex,” he said. The vortex is a girdle of winds around the Arctic, which can weaken and dip south and allow frigid air to spill out, leading to cold snaps and higher demand for heating.
然而，本季出现这种北极寒流的可能性可能较低。Planette AI的首席执行官兼创始人汉西·辛格表示，创纪录强度的厄尔尼诺现象以及北极周围平流层风向的变化将在未来几个月降低这种可能性。她补充道：“今年的冬天实际上是去年的反面，当时我们实际上拥有相当理想的寒流条件。”天气
Such Arctic blasts may be less likely this season, however. A record-strength El Niño and the shifting of stratospheric winds around the North Pole will lower the probability in coming months, said Hansi Singh, chief executive officer and founder of Planette AI. “This winter is kind of the inverse of last year’s, when we actually had pretty perfect conditions for cold blasts,” she added. Weather