为什么德国支持欧盟对中国采取更强硬的贸易防御措施尼克·马丁（Nik Martin）2026年10月13日由于担心遭到报复，德国长期以来一直抵制针对中国的更强硬行动。但关键行业面临的日益沉重的压力，促使柏林和巴黎寻求增强欧盟的贸易防御权力，以保护其工业基础。
Why Germany is backing tougher EU trade defenses against China Nik Martin October 13, 2026 Germany long resisted tougher action against China because of retaliation fears. But rising pressure on key industries has pushed Berlin and Paris to seek stronger EU trade-defense powers to protect its industrial base.
在来自中国的竞争不断加剧之际，德国和法国正推动建立更强大的欧盟贸易防御工具德国对北京谨慎的态度正在出现裂痕。多年来，柏林一直阻挠对欧盟所称的中国不公平贸易做法采取更强硬的立场。
Germany and France are pushing for stronger EU trade defense tools amid rising Chinese competition Germany's cautious approach toward Beijing is cracking. For years, Berlin blocked a harder line on what the European Union describes as China's unfair trade practices.
在过去的几个月里，这种出于对可能伤害德国出口商的中国报复的担忧而表现出的谨慎，已经让位于采取升级行动的意愿。
In the last few months, that caution — a fear of Chinese retaliation that could hurt German exporters — has given way to a willingness to escalate.
上周，德国总理弗里德里希·默茨（Friedrich Merz）与法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）联名致信欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩（Ursula von der Leyen），寻求一项新工具，以便在不公平做法持续存在的情况下，切断贸易伙伴与欧盟单一市场的联系。
Last week, Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron wrote jointly to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen seeking a new tool to cut a trading partner off from the EU's single market if unfair practices continue.
这封信显然针对北京，信中警告称，面对那些“蓄意通过政治或经济手段破坏……公平市场条件”的国家，采取这一措施是必要的。中国商务部警告称，如果欧洲采纳这样一项“一键关停”计划，将“自食其果”。该计划出台的时机恰逢上周在北京举行的关键的欧中贸易会谈。承受压力的德国观看此视频，以及停滞不前的代价荣鼎集团（Rhodium Group）中国业务高级顾问诺亚·巴金（Noah Barkin）对德国之声表示，针对德国这个出口强国的威胁“已经让默茨和他的最核心顾问确信，采取行动的好处大于不采取行动的代价”。
Clearly aimed at Beijing, the letter warned the measure was necessary against countries that "deliberately seek to undermine ... fair market conditions by political or economic means." China's Commerce Ministry warned Europe would "suffer the consequences" if it adopted such a "kill-switch" plan, which was timed to coincide with crucial EU-China trade talks in Beijing last week. Germany under pressure To view this video , and The cost of standing still Noah Barkin, a senior adviser with research consultancy Rhodium Group's China practice, told DW that the threats to Germany's export powerhouse "have convinced Merz and his closest advisers that the benefits of action outweigh the costs of inaction."
在新冠疫情爆发之前，两国的经济同步增长，德国工业从中国的崛起中受益。
Before the COVID pandemic the two economies rose in tandem and German industry benefited from China's ascent.
然而，根据德国联邦外贸与投资署2026年上半年的数据，自2021年以来，中国已从德国的第二大出口市场跌至第九大出口市场。
Since 2021, however, China has fallen from Germany's second-largest export market to its ninth, according to data from Germany Trade & Invest for the first half of 2026.
中国竞争对手迅速缩小了技术差距，并受益于更低的成本和国家补贴。这种压力在德国的汽车制造、精密工程和化工行业中尤为明显。
Chinese competitors have quickly closed the technology gap and benefit from much lower costs and state subsidies. That pressure is being felt especially in Germany's automaking precision engineering and chemicals industries.
为什么柏林的对华政策正在发生变化 德国车企在中国曾经的第二大市场遭遇了大幅销售下滑。据罗迪姆集团（Rhodium Group）数据显示，德国对华汽车出口在2022年至2025年间暴跌66%。
Why Berlin's China policy is changing German vehicle makers have suffered a large sales drop in China, which was once their second-largest market. According to data from Rhodium Group, German car exports to China plummeted by 66% between 2022 and 2025.
如今，德国大型汽车品牌正面临来自中国新一波电动汽车（EV）制造商的激烈竞争，这一竞争不仅在中国，还蔓延至欧洲等其他主要市场，迫使企业启动裁员潮，甚至可能面临工厂关闭。大众、奥迪和保时捷已宣布将削减员工人数，合计达数万个岗位，因为整个行业正经历巨大变革。仅在德国，根据联邦统计局Destatis的数据，今年前七个月新造中国制造汽车进口量增长了121%。总体而言，中国制造汽车占总汽车进口量的近14%。
Big German brands now face heavy rivalry from a new wave of Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufactures in other major markets, including Europe, which is forcing a wave of layoffs and possible factory closures VW, Audi and Porsche have announced workforce reductions totaling tens of thousands of jobs as the industry undergoes a huge transformation In Germany alone, imports of new Chinese-made cars rose 121% in the first seven months of the year, according to Destatis, the federal statistics agency. Overall, Chinese-made vehicles accounted for nearly 14% of total vehicle imports.
“在持续失去中国市场份额之后……这种竞争似乎正在冲击他们在欧洲汽车市场的业务，”柏林-based Mercator Institute for China Studies（MERICS）的副研究员安德烈亚斯·米舍尔（Andreas Mischer）对德国之声（DW）表示。
"After continuously losing market share in China ... it [the rivalry] seems to be hitting their business within the European automotive market," Andreas Mischer, an associate fellow at the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), told DW.
米舍尔表示，德国强大的汽车游说团体的压力是柏林“转变对贸易防御工具态度”的关键因素。行业压力推动贸易防御需求增长在过去几个月中，众多德国商界领袖呼吁采取更为强硬的对华立场，其中德国机械工程协会（VDMA）对外贸易部门负责人奥利弗·里希特伯格（Oliver Richtberg）或许是表态最直白的一位：“我们目前正通过不公平的措施经历去工业化——而大多数公司已不再愿意接受这一点，”里希特伯格在八月接受《世界报》周末版（Welt am Sonntag）采访时如是说道。
Mischer said pressure from Germany's powerful automotive lobby was key to Berlin's "shifting attitude toward trade defense instruments." Industry pressure grows for trade defenses Among the many German business leaders who have demanded a more hard-line approach in recent months, Oliver Richtberg, head of foreign trade at VDMA, Germany's mechanical engineering association, was perhaps the most blunt: "We are currently being deindustrialized through unfair measures — and most companies are no longer willing to accept this," Richtberg told Welt am Sonntag newspaper in August.
根据欧盟统计局的数据，去年整个欧盟对华货物贸易逆差约为3600亿欧元（合4020亿美元），实际上相当于每天10亿欧元，并且在2026年上半年再度扩大。
According to Eurostat, the wider EU's goods deficit with China was around €360 billion ($402 billion) last year — effectively €1 billion per day — and widened again in the first half of 2026.
尽管布鲁塞尔一直在抵制中国廉价商品的倾销，但一项独立的产业保护法以及其他反胁迫措施正面临来自北京和欧盟内部的阻力。
While Brussels has been pushing back against the dumping of cheap Chinese goods, a separate industrial protection law and other anti-coercion measures are running into trouble from Beijing and at home.
商界团体对产业政策提案提出质疑 欧盟于3月提出的《工业加速器法案》旨在通过在公共合同和补贴中优待欧盟本土企业，将制造业投资拉回欧洲。
Business groups question industrial policy proposals The EU's Industrial Accelerator Act, proposed in March, is meant to pull manufacturing investment back to Europe by favoring EU-based firms in public contracts and subsidies.
关键领域的外国投资只有在欧洲伙伴保持多数控制权的情况下才能获得批准，北京方面认为这是歧视性的。如何打破中国对原材料的扼制？
Foreign investments in key sectors would only be approved if European partners keep majority control, which Beijing has framed as discriminatory. How to dismantle China's stranglehold on raw materials?
欧洲汽车制造商协会上个月警告称，该法案草案在应对来自更廉价中国竞争对手的威胁方面收效甚微。该协会在一份立场文件中表示，在欧盟内部生产的激励措施必须足够大，“以抵消在本地生产的额外成本”。柏林方面的主要担忧是，中国可能会对稀土矿物及由其制成的磁铁实施新的出口限制。中国对这些元素拥有控制权，而这些元素对德国的汽车、可再生能源和国防制造至关重要。
The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) warned last month that the draft act does little to counter the threat from cheaper Chinese rivals. In a position paper, it said the incentive to produce within the bloc has to be large enough to "cancel out the extra cost of producing locally." Berlin's chief concern was that China could place new export curbs on rare earth minerals and the magnets made from them. China has a stranglehold on these elements, which are essential for German automotive, renewables and defense manufacturing.
彭博社上周援引未具名的德国官员的话称，如果北京切断这些出口，欧盟的一项新“紧急熔断机制”可能会成为一种“二次打击武器”。根据彭博社的同一篇报道，布鲁塞尔还在考虑对中国出口到欧盟的混合动力汽车数量实施单边限制。
Bloomberg last week cited unnamed German officials as saying that a new EU kill-switch could be a "second-strike weapon" if Beijing blocked those exports. Brussels is also considering unilateral limits on the number of hybrid cars China can export to the EU, according to the same Bloomberg report.
欧盟权衡额外的贸易措施 也许是为了避免这种公开对抗，欧盟与中国上周在北京举行的中欧经贸会谈中达成了一项“共识”，该共识可能会使中国对欧盟的混合动力和插电式混合动力汽车出口量减少一半以上。
EU weights additional trade measures Perhaps to avoid such an open confrontation, the EU and China reached a "shared understanding" last week at the EU-China trade talks in Beijing that could cut Chinese exports of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles to the European Union by more than half.
根据欧盟贸易委员马罗斯·塞夫科维奇的说法，这可能会影响未来几年中国向欧盟出口的数百万辆汽车，他率领了欧洲代表团。
That could affect several millions vehicle exports from China to the EU over the next few years, according to EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, who headed the European delegation.
在激烈的中国竞争中，欧盟表示希望恢复欧洲的工业生产。总体而言，根据ACEA的数据，今年1月至8月，欧盟新能源混合动力汽车占新车总销量的近37%。
Amid intense Chinese rivalry, the EU says it wants to restore industrial production in Europe Overall, new hybrid-electric cars in the EU reached nearly 37% of all new carsed from January to August, according to ACEA data.
与此同时，MERICS的研究显示，欧盟对中国而言比美国更是一个关键的出口市场。上半年，中国对欧盟的出口额达到2540亿美元，而对美国的出口额为1720亿美元。
MERICS, meanwhile, calculated that the EU is a more critical export market for China than the US. In the first half of the year, Chinese exports to the EU were $254 billion, versus $172 billion to the US.
这可能使欧盟谈判代表在寻求避免贸易战同时保护欧洲免受中国最新出口过剩冲击时，拥有更强的谈判筹码。
This could give EU negotiators a firmer hand as they seek to avoid a trade war while protecting Europe from China's latest export glut.
“欧盟拥有的杠杆作用比它有时认为的更大，”MERICS的米舍尔对德国之声表示。
"The EU has more leverage than it sometimes thinks," MERICS' Mischer told DW.