2022年5月13日，时任白宫中东问题特使布雷特·麦克古克问他的上司他对这份工作的感觉。乔·拜登，他注意到，曾是一个健谈且富有表现力的副总统，但后来变得安静了，这种变化不仅仅是因为年龄。
On May 13, 2022, then-White House Middle East envoy Brett McGurk asked his boss how he liked his job. Joe Biden, he’d noticed, had been a chatty, expressive vice president, but had grown quieter in a way that wasn’t just about his age.
“在这份工作中没有快乐，”拜登回答道。“这就是区别。这份工作里没有快乐。”
“There’s no joy in it,” Biden responded. “That’s the difference. No joy in this job.”
麦克古克的新回忆录记录了他试图在美国和地区官员之间进行谈判的两年艰难岁月，其中之一是对痛苦的世界领导人的一系列描述：诸如此类。在麦克古克的叙述中，只有“自满且难以捉摸”的本雅明·内塔尼亚胡显然不那么不幸福。
McGurk’s new memoir cataloguing two grim years of trying to negotiate between American and regional officials is, among other things, a set of portraits of miserable world leaders: And so on. In McGurk’s account, only the “smug” and inscrutable Benjamin Netanyahu isn’t obviously unhappy.
这种关于领导层痛苦的叙事，可以作为警示故事，供美国两党目前正在反思、咨询配偶是否应参选总统的几十名男女参考。记者们通常把这些 deliberations 当作戏剧来看待。但即使是那些显然正在为参选做准备的人，也比你想象的更认真地对待这些事情。无论胜负，候选人的竞选都会吞噬他们的生活和他们所爱之人的生活；胜利则保证他们的生活将永远改变。
This narrative of the woes of leadership could serve as a cautionary tale for the few dozen men and women in both of America’s political parties currently searching their souls and consulting their spouses about whether to run for president. Journalists typically treat these deliberations as theater. But even the people most obviously preparing to run take them more seriously than you’d imagine. Win or lose, a candidate’s campaign will consume their life and their loved ones’; a victory guarantees their life will change forever.
因此，虽然副总统JD·万斯的助手目前看来相当有信心他会参选，但他们也真诚地认为他尚未——完全——做出决定。副总统是特殊的：他们已经为国家职位付出了代价，但得到的回报远少于他们的上司。但一位喜欢万斯的共和党老资格人物正在劝他不要这样做：他建议万斯回到俄亥俄州，投身于重塑贸易教育或其他值得做的事情，并以他本人的身份参选总统，而不是作为唐纳德·特朗普的影子。
So while Vice President JD Vance’s aides right now appear quite confident he’ll run, they also sincerely believe that he hasn’t yet — totally — decided. Vice presidents are special: They have already paid the price of national office, getting far less in return than their bosses. But one Republican elder who likes Vance is advising against it: He suggests Vance return to Ohio, get to work reinventing trade education or some other worthy task, and run for president as the guy, rather than Donald Trump’s shadow.
与此同时，国务卿马尔科·卢比奥的支持者们则宣称他尚未采取任何参选的步骤，更不用说做出决定了。他们也警告人们不要说他不参选：他尚未做出任何决定。
Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s supporters, meanwhile, swear he hasn’t taken any steps toward running, much less decided on it. They also caution people against saying he’s not running, however: He hasn’t decided anything.
在民主党方面，我们假设他们都在参选 — — 加州州长加文·纽瑟姆和伊利诺伊州州长JB·普利兹克，参议员乔恩·奥索夫（民主党-佐治亚州）和科里·布克（民主党-新泽西州），以及其他人。
On the Democratic side, we assume they’re all running — California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Sens. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., and Cory Booker, D-N.J., and the rest.
但他们可能想读一读麦格克的书，然后考虑他们是否真的想要这份工作。因为奇怪的是，在所有成功总统候选人的区分特质中，野心似乎是最突出的。
But they might want to read McGurk’s book and think about whether they really want the job. Because oddly, of all the distinguishing qualities of successful presidential candidates, ambition turns out to be perhaps the most salient.
一位前拜登政府官员最近开玩笑说，他们押注马里兰州州长韦斯·摩尔获得民主党提名，因为他具备成为总统所需的唯一品质：真的，真的很想当总统。
One former Biden administration official recently quipped that their money was on Maryland Gov. Wes Moore for the Democratic nomination, because he has the single quality you most need to become president: really, really wanting to be president.
潜在候选人也会听到更多愤世嫉俗的论点，支持无论什么情况都参选。ABC新闻在2024年观察到：“即使你输了，也有很多好处：更好的工作机会，公众形象提升，以及为下次竞选积累战争基金的机会。”
The potential candidates will also hear more cynical arguments in favor of running no matter what. ABC News observed in 2024: “there are also a lot of benefits, even if you lose: better job opportunities, increased public profiles and the chance to build up a war chest for the next run.”