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美国潜艇生产停滞不前America’s Submarine Production Is Stuck in the Past

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保持领先:弗吉尼亚级快速攻击潜艇“明尼苏达”号。摄影:Pool/Getty Images AsiaPacStaying ahead: The USS Minnesota Virginia-class fast attack submarine. Photographer: Pool/Getty Images AsiaPac

核动力潜艇是美国海军声称对中国拥有海上优势的主要原因之一。但这一优势十分有限,且因生产不力而正在逐渐丧失。

Nuclear-powered submarines are one of the main reasons the US Navy can claim maritime superiority over China. But it’s a slim advantage, and it’s slipping because of subpar production.

上周,白宫宣布将与初创公司Anduril Industries Inc.共同投资66亿美元,用于制造潜艇部件,这是加强供应链、提高产出努力的一部分。但政府应当更进一步,在行业中引入竞争;它应当撤销三十年前的一项决定,即要求该国仅有的两家潜艇制造商共同合作。

The White House announcement last week to jointly invest $6.6 billion with startup Anduril Industries Inc. to manufacture submarine components is part of an effort to bolster the supply chain and increase output. But the government should go even further to inject competition in the industry; it should undo a three-decade-old decision that called for the country’s only two manufacturers of submarines to work together.

这一合作伙伴关系可追溯至1991年苏联解体之后,当时美国海军开始缩减舰队规模,封存造船厂并关闭训练站,以兑现所谓的“和平红利”。海军支持通用动力公司(General Dynamics Corp.)旗下的电船公司(Electric Boat)与亨廷顿英格尔斯工业公司(Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc.)旗下的纽波特纽斯造船厂(Newport News Shipyard)进行联合潜艇生产,以防其制造能力在需求低迷的情况下消失。

The partnership dates back to after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when the US Navy began shrinking its fleet, mothballing shipyards and closing training stations to cash in on a so-called peace dividend. The Navy supported joint submarine production by General Dynamics Corp.’s Electric Boat and Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc.’s Newport News Shipyard to keep their manufacturing capabilities from disappearing amid low demand.

在当今世界,中国正在快速建设其军队,尤其是海军力量,这一安排已经超出了其原始目的。中国舰队预计将在2030年增至435艘舰艇,而美国舰队的数量则将略有下降,保持在300艘以下。当美国舰队规模在缩小时,这一潜艇生产伙伴关系是合理的,但如今它必须实现增长。

This arrangement has outlived its purpose in a world where China is rapidly building up its military, especially its naval force. China’s fleet is expected to increase to 435 ships by 2030, while the number for the US will fall slightly to remain under 300. The submarine-production partnership made sense when the US fleet was shrinking, but now it must grow.

通用动力公司和亨廷顿英格尔斯工业公司未能跟上自2011财年起国会每年拨款用于建造两艘弗吉尼亚级攻击潜艇的进度。根据国会研究服务处(Congressional Research Service)的数据,两家公司合计平均每年生产约1.2艘潜艇。此外,他们在交付下一代哥伦比亚级弹道导弹潜艇的首艘舰艇方面也落后了约一年半。

General Dynamics and Huntington have failed to keep pace with the two Virginia-class attack subs a year that Congress has been funding since fiscal year 2011. The two together produce an average of about 1.2 boats annually, according to the Congressional Research Service. They’re also about a year and a half behind on the first delivery of the next-generation Columbia-class ballistic missile sub.

这些公司将延迟归咎于疫情导致供应链崩溃,原因是资深工人离开行业,包括许多制造高度专业化零件的小型机械加工厂。但即使这些劳动力短缺问题得到缓解,团队生产所带来的结构性问题仍然存在——这种模式导致供应链高度共享,一旦某个合作伙伴在其负责的部分落后,就会导致整体延迟。

The companies have blamed the delays on the pandemic decimating the supply chain after veteran workers left the industry, including at many small machine shops that make highly specialized parts. But even as those labor shortages heal, there remains the structural problem of team production that has resulted in a mostly shared supply chain and delays when one partner falls behind on the section it’s building.

与Anduril的协议将使马里兰州的一座钢铁厂复产,以生产潜艇部件。毫无疑问,这家初创公司能够为供应链带来创新和急需的产能。它甚至渴望在未来建造完整的潜艇段落。

The agreement with Anduril will resurrect a Maryland steel plant to make component parts for submarines. The startup can, no doubt, bring innovation and sorely needed capacity to the supply chain. It even aspires to building full sections of subs in the future.

但不要指望Anduril能成为解决潜艇生产速度问题的灵丹妙药。要实现这一点,我们需要重新思考当前的制造安排,首先是让通用动力和亨廷顿回归自行建造完整潜艇。这将重新引入竞争,推动更高效率并扩大供应商基础。

But don’t expect Anduril to be the silver bullet that fixes submarine production rates. For that to happen, we need to rethink the current manufacturing arrangement, starting with transitioning General Dynamics and Huntington back to building complete subs themselves. This would inject some competition back into the industry, driving more efficiency and expanding the base of suppliers.

保持潜艇设计和生产的领先地位的重要性不容忽视。海军与Anduril的协议是供应链的积极一步,但真正迫切需要的是能够带来更高效率和更及时生产的竞争活力。当年通过和平红利获利、让两家潜艇制造商联手的时代早已一去不复返。

The importance of keeping ahead on submarine design and production can’t be overstated. The Navy’s deal with Anduril is a positive step for the supply chain, but what’s sorely needed is the competitive energy that can lead to greater efficiency and more timely production. The days when it made sense to cash in on the peace dividend and have the two sub manufacturers team up are long gone.