根据一项重大国际研究，全球每年新发痴呆病例的人数可能从2023年的1140万增至2050年的2470万，增幅超过一倍。
The number of people developing dementia worldwide each year could more than double from 11.4 million in 2023 to 24.7 million by 2050, according to a major international study.
该研究于周一发表在《JAMA神经学》期刊上，分析了来自18个国家和地区、六大洲22个基于人群的研究中的38,418名参与者的个体数据。
The research, published Monday in JAMA Neurology, analyzed individual data from 38,418 participants across 22 population-based studies in 18 countries and territories on six continents.
在超过28.7万人年监测期间，3001名参与者患上痴呆。研究人员计算出全球年龄和性别标准化后的发病率为每1000人年9.7例新发病例。
Across more than 287,000 person-years of monitoring, 3,001 participants developed dementia. The researchers calculated a global age- and sex-standardized incidence rate of 9.7 new cases per 1,000 person-years.
发病率衡量的是新发病例出现的频率，而患病率则指已经患有某种疾病的总人数。
Incidence measures how frequently new cases develop, rather than prevalence, which refers to the total number of people already living with a condition.
在研究人员考虑了年龄差异之后，女性的发病率为每1000人年10.6例，男性为8.6例。
After researchers accounted for differences in age, the incidence rate among women was 10.6 cases per 1,000 person-years, compared to 8.6 among men.
不同收入水平国家之间的差异更为显著。低收入和中等收入国家记录的发病率为每1000人年13.6例，而高收入国家为8.3例。
The difference between countries at different income levels was greater. Low- and middle-income countries recorded 13.6 cases per 1,000 person-years, compared with 8.3 in high-income countries.
“这是首次，我们能够使用相同的统计方法，在地理上多样化的人群中比较痴呆发病率，从而更清晰地了解新发病例发生的地点和人群，”新南威尔士大学健康脑龄中心的首席作者Ashleigh Vella表示。
“For the first time, we can compare dementia incidence across a geographically diverse group of populations using the same statistical approach, giving us a clearer picture of where and among whom new cases are occurring,” said lead author Ashleigh Vella of the University of New South Wales’ Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing.
“值得注意的是，痴呆发病率并不均匀分布。我们看到女性以及低收入和中等收入国家的发病率更高，”她补充道。
“What stands out is that dementia incidence is not evenly distributed. We see higher rates among women and in low- and middle-income countries,” she added.
2050年每年2470万例的预测是通过将该研究的年龄和性别特异性发病率应用于预期的人口数字得出的。该预测假设发病率保持不变，意味着预测的增长主要由人口增长和人口老龄化驱动。
The projection of 24.7 million annual cases in 2050 was calculated by applying the study’s age- and sex-specific incidence rates to expected population figures. It assumes that incidence rates remain constant, meaning the projected rise is driven largely by population growth and aging.
研究人员表示，这些发现有助于政府预测未来对诊断、治疗、长期护理和支持服务的需求，尤其是在资源有限的国家，这些国家在痴呆症研究中历来代表性不足。
Researchers said the findings could help governments anticipate future demand for diagnosis, treatment, long-term care, and support services, particularly in lower-resource countries that have historically been underrepresented in dementia studies.
目前全球有超过5700万人受到痴呆症的影响，而先前的研究预测，到2050年，患病人数可能接近1.5亿。
Dementia currently affects more than 57 million people worldwide, while previous research has projected that the number living with the condition could approach 150 million by 2050.
该研究的合著者亨利·布罗达蒂表示，每年新增2400万例病例将对“全球个人、家庭、卫生系统和经济造成巨大压力”。他指出，“人口老龄化意味着我们不能只是等待人们患上痴呆症后再作出反应”，并呼吁采取行动以降低可改变的风险因素、更早识别高危人群，并改善诊断、治疗和护理。
Study co-author Henry Brodaty said 24 million new cases each year would place “enormous pressure on individuals, families, health systems, and economies around the world.”“Population ageing means we cannot simply wait for people to develop dementia and then respond,” he said, calling for action to reduce modifiable risk factors, identify people at risk earlier and improve diagnosis, treatment and care.