
华尔街的固定收益业务部门在第三季度表现疲弱,而其在股票业务上的竞争对手则抓住了一个难得的机遇,超越了同业。
Wall Street’s fixed-income desks struggled in the third quarter, their rivals in equities seized a rare opening to outshine their market brethren.
美国五家最大银行的股票业务部门预计将在今年前九个月实现超过660亿美元的收入,这一数字大约比处理债券、货币和大宗商品业务的部门预期高出30亿美元。其中部分增长得益于为对冲基金和其他大型股票投资者提供服务的首席经纪业务。
Equities divisions at five of the largest US banks are on track to deliver more than $66 billion of revenue in the first nine months of the year, roughly $3 billion higher than what’s expected from units handling bonds, currencies and commodities. Part of that was driven by prime brokerage operations catering to hedge funds and other big stock investors.
这一切意味着,一代债券交易员正在职业生涯中首次面临被股票业务同行全年超越的可能性。这不仅会改变等级秩序和奖金分配,还将挑战长期存在的传统观念——即计算机将接管股票交易,从而侵蚀手续费和收入。
It all means that a generation of bond traders are confronting, for the first time in their careers, the possibility of getting beaten for the year by their peers in equities. That would not only shift the pecking order and bonuses, it would challenge the longstanding conventional wisdom that computers are set to take over stocks — eroding fees and revenue.
“不久前,人们还在担心电子化和股票交易,”高盛集团首席财务官丹尼斯·科尔曼对分析师表示。“但如今我们坐在这里时,我们面临的机遇比任何人在看到我们的股票收入及我们所作的调整时所能想象的都要更大。”这九个月的数据基于三家行业最大银行周二公布的业绩,以及分析师对另外两家同业最大竞争对手的估计,后者将在周三公布。
“It was not too long ago that people were concerned about electronification and equities trading,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Financial Officer Denis Coleman told analysts. “But as we sit here today, the opportunity set for us is greater than what anyone could have contemplated when you look at our equity revenues and the way we adjusted.”The nine-month tallies are based on results posted by three of the industry’s largest banks Tuesday and on analysts’ estimates for two of their largest peers, due Wednesday.
截至目前,高盛的股票交易员今年已经取得了两个季度的历史最佳业绩。在摩根大通公司,股票交易员实现了有史以来最好的第三季度业绩,较去年同期增长49%。
So far, Goldman’s stock traders have notched two of their best quarters ever this year. At JPMorgan Chase & Co., equities traders chalked their best third quarter ever, up 49% from a year earlier.
华尔街的固定收益交易部门正面临利率上升带来的冲击,这可能导致现有债务价值下降,并抑制客户进行交易的需求。美联储在9月份上调了基准利率以遏制通胀,而本月早些时候,10年期美国国债收益率一度逼近近四分之一世纪以来的最高水平。
Wall Street’s fixed-income trading desks are facing fallout from rising interest rates, which can push down the value of existing debt and crimp demand from clients to transact. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate in September to contain inflation, and 10-year Treasury yields approached the highest level in almost a quarter century earlier this month.
导致交易业绩波动的相同力量也在提升银行作为贷款人的传统角色。摩根大通、花旗集团和富国银行在第三季度的贷款收入创下历史新高,尽管利率上升,客户仍在继续借贷。
The same forces shaking up trading results are also giving a boost to banks’ traditional roles as lenders. JPMorgan, Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. set a fresh record in the third quarter for how much they earned from lending, with customers continuing to borrow even as interest rates increased.
在固定收益业务单元中,利率和价差产品的收入有所下降,而货币和大宗商品业务则表现出更强的韧性。在周二报告业绩的几家最大银行中,只有花旗集团未出现固定收益交易收入下降。该公司的利润还得益于其服务业务的突出表现——该业务帮助企业和政府转移和管理资金。
Within fixed-income units, earnings from rates and spread products softened, while currencies and commodities proved more resilient. Among the largest banks reporting Tuesday, only Citigroup didn’t suffer a drop in fixed-income trading revenue. Profits at that firm were also bolstered by a standout quarter for its services business, which helps companies and governments move and manage their money.
美国银行和摩根士丹利是将在周三发布季度业绩的美国贷款机构之一。
Bank of America Corp. and Morgan Stanley are among US lenders set to report quarterly results on Wednesday.
截至目前,在市场业务内部,“这是一个两座城市的故事,”富国金融公司Brian Foran领衔的分析师团队在给客户的报告中写道。
So far, inside markets businesses “it is a tale of two cities,” analysts led by Brian Foran at Truist Financial Corp. wrote in a note to clients.
而当视角转向更传统的贷款业务时,分析师表示,“一方面,人们看到净利息收入前景积极、回报强劲,以及资本和消费者支出的增长。”
And panning out to more traditional lending, the analysts said, “one camp sees positive net interest income outlooks and strong returns and capital and consumer spend.”