
德国哲学家GWF黑格尔在讨论事后反思所带来的历史智慧时,曾以著名的“密涅瓦的猫头鹰”作喻。今年秋天,这只猫头鹰在英国政治的版图上不知疲倦地翱翔。各党代表大会期间,工党与保守党围绕20世纪70至80年代的叙述相互冲突,成为焦点。而在英国投票决定脱离欧盟十年之后,安迪·伯纳姆本周终于摒弃了所有含糊其辞,直面这一决定所带来的经济乃至战略层面的损害。
The German philosopher GWF Hegel famously evoked the owl of Minerva when discussing the historical wisdom that comes through hindsight. This autumn, she has flown tirelessly over the landscape of British politics. Party conference season was dominated by conflicting Labour and Conservative accounts of the 1970s and 80s. And a decade after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, Andy Burnham this week abandoned all equivocation over the damage – economic but also strategic – that resulted from that decision.
伯纳姆先生宣称,现在是时候“直面这样一个现实:脱欧带来的危害远大于益处”。他在周一对下议院表示,若不探索与布鲁塞尔建立更紧密关系的所有可能性,将是“玩忽职守”。尽管他确认本届议会将遵守基尔·斯塔默爵士领导的工党宣言中划定的“红线”,但此后一切可能性都将重新被摆上桌面。
Having declared that it is time to “face up to the reality that Brexit has done more harm than good”, Mr Burnham told the House of Commons on Monday that it would be a “dereliction of duty” not to explore all options for closer relations with Brussels. Though he confirmed that in this parliament he will honour the red lines in Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour manifesto, all bets will subsequently be off.
伯纳姆还宣布,一场长期推迟的重启峰会将于下月举行,届时将就食品、饮料及青年流动协议展开谈判。前工党领袖尼尔·基诺克周二向一家意大利报纸断言,首相的最终目标“显而易见”——即重新加入欧盟。
A long-delayed reset summit, Mr Burnham also announced, will take place next month with deals on food and drink and youth mobility to be negotiated. The former Labour leader Neil Kinnock asserted to an Italian newspaper on Tuesday that the prime minister’s “obvious” eventual objective was to rejoin.
唐宁街或许会对这一说法提出质疑。但正如伯纳姆首相任期这一外交接触阶段所形成的惯例,他在下议院的声明既大胆又坦率。更重要的是,这一声明在问题诊断与解决方案上都准确无误。然而,重启英国近代史上最具争议性辩论的现实,注定将是一个漫长、充满障碍且政治风险重重的过程。
That might well be contested in Downing Street. But as has become the norm in this overture phase of Mr Burnham’s premiership, his Commons statement was bracingly expansive and forthright. It also had the signal virtue of being correct in its diagnosis and prescription. Nevertheless, the reality of reopening the most divisive debate of recent British history will be drawn out, obstacle-strewn and fraught with political risk.
工党在重新审视与欧盟关系的问题上表现得极为谨慎,这与民意调查的结果形成了鲜明对比——多数公众实际上支持加强与欧盟的联系。然而,真正的挑战在于细节之处。特别是在党内,很多事情将取决于首相的说服力。在那些投票支持脱欧的选区(如梅克菲尔德),伯纳姆在竞选期间并未强调“纠正脱欧带来的经济负面影响”这一议题。
Labour’s hyper-caution over revisiting the EU relationship has increasingly been at odds with polls indicating a substantial majority of the public supports closer ties. But the devil will be in the detail. In the red wall, in particular, much will depend on the prime minister’s undoubted persuasive powers. The need to undo the economic self-harm of Brexit was not something that Mr Burnham chose to emphasise while campaigning for his seat in the leave-voting constituency of Makerfield.
另一方面,欧盟本身也在经历变革,可能会制定新的政策底线。面对日益严峻的地缘政治形势,布鲁塞尔正在考虑在国防和经济政策等领域加强合作。这一趋势已经体现在“欧洲制造”(Made in Europe)战略中,该战略可能会让英国的汽车制造商处于不利地位。
For its part, the EU itself is in flux and may have new red lines of its own. Responding to a more menacing geopolitical environment, Brussels is contemplating deeper coordination in areas such as defence and economic policy. The direction of travel is already evident in the “Made in Europe” strategy, which threatens to leave British-based car manufacturers out in the cold.
正如这一风险所表明的那样,与欧盟保持合作显然符合英国的利益,而不是孤立无援地独自应对各种挑战。在保守党执政期间,英欧关系曾充满互不信任;如今,基尔爵士(Sir Keir)重新恢复了英欧之间基本但有限度的友好关系。伯纳姆的魄力或许能为未来的“关系重塑”开辟新的可能性(正如一位欧盟外交官所说)。
As that risk illustrates, it is overwhelmingly in Britain’s interests to be acting in concert with the EU, rather than flailing in sorry isolation on the sidelines. Following the visceral mutual distrust of the Tory Brexit years, Sir Keir restored a basic if circumscribed civility to relations between the UK and the EU. Mr Burnham’s boldness can now open up new possibilities down the line for “a real reset”, to use the formulation of one EU diplomat.
伯纳姆肯定已经意识到:这样的举措能够团结英国的进步势力,从而显著提升工党的支持率。他一直强调的首要任务是纠正过去几十年中的政治错误。虽然从脱欧问题入手来着手这一长期任务需要勇气,但这将为他的首相任期乃至整个国家带来巨大的积极影响。
It will not have escaped Mr Burnham’s notice that such a prospect would unite progressive Britain behind it, and could significantly boost Labour’s percentage vote share. His overriding early theme has been the need to rectify the political “wrong turns” of past decades. Beginning the long task of doing so on Brexit is brave, but it promises significant dividends for his premiership and, much more importantly, the country.