近一年来，议论纷纷的群体一直认为，2026年中期选举将围绕“可负担性”这一议题展开。但事实上，在将决定参议院控制权的美国中部各州，真正占主导的是地方性议题，而非那种笼统、宏大的价格问题。
For nearly a year now, the assumption from the chattering classes has been that the 2026 midterm election will be decided on the issue of affordability, but on the ground, in the mid-American states that will decide control of the senate, it is local issues that dominate, not the vague, overarching question of prices.
将可负担性问题全国化的一个困难在于，这一议题起源于纽约市，源自现任社会主义市长佐兰·曼达尼的竞选活动。但纽约市是一个特例，一直物价极高。曼哈顿最后一次实现可负担，还要追溯到荷兰人从印第安人手中购买该岛的时候。
Part of the problem with nationalizing the affordability issue is that it originated in New York City with the campaign of current socialist mayor Zohran Mamdani. But Gotham is a unique case that is always very expensive. The last time Manhattan was affordable was when the Dutch bought it from the Indians.
在全国中部地区——包括密歇根州、俄亥俄州、明尼苏达州和德克萨斯州，而本栏目过去一个月恰好走访了这些州——经济是一个重要议题，正如民调所示，但它并不像我们在2022年或2024年与选民交谈时所感受到的那样，构成一种生存性危机。
In the middle of the country, including Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, and Texas, all of which this column has visited in the past month, the economy is a major issue, as polls indicate, but it is not the same existential crisis that it was for voters we spoke with in 2022 or 2024.
大卫·马库斯：在俄亥俄州斯普林菲尔德，只有特朗普能修复MAGA-商会裂痕我在斯普林菲尔德的一家餐厅遇到了雷吉。他刚结婚，正在读自助类书籍，从事建筑行业。他对福克斯新闻数字版说：“有工作，工资不错，这不是问题，物价就是物价，而且由于税假，汽油价格已经下降。”雷吉指的是俄亥俄州决定暂停征收汽油税，导致该州（即“眼镜蛇州”）的油价降至每加仑四美元以下。
DAVID MARCUS: IN SPRINGFIELD, OHIO, ONLY TRUMP CAN MEND MAGA-CHAMBER OF COMMERCE RIFT I met Reggie at a restaurant in Springfield, Ohio. He’s recently married, reading self-help books, and in construction, he told Fox News Digital, "There’s work, wages are good, that’s not an issue, prices are prices, and gas has gone down with the tax holiday." Reggie was referring to Ohio’s decision to temporarily suspend gas tax, resulting in a price under four dollars in the Buckeye State.
大卫·马库斯：在俄亥俄州代顿，两党都面临苦涩的政治绝望事实上，在本栏目走访的所有州中，似乎没有一个州的选民将生活成本视为首要驱动力。那么到底是什么在起作用？让我们逐州来看。
DAVID MARCUS: IN DAYTON, OHIO, BOTH PARTIES FACE BITTER POLITICAL DESPONDENCY In fact, in no state this column visited did it seem as if cost of living was the prime driver of the electorate. So what is it? Let’s take it state by state.
了解一个选民群体真正关注什么议题的最直接、最清晰的方式，是当他们在你提及之前就主动提出来。在明尼苏达州，我几乎与之交谈的每个人都未经引导就主动提到了欺诈问题。
The cleanest and clearest way to know what issue is driving any community of voters is when they bring something up before you do, and in Minnesota, almost everyone I spoke with brought up fraud with no coaxing.
大卫·马库斯：佩吉·弗拉纳根的DEI记录和欺诈丑闻让明尼苏达州参议院竞选成为焦点过去一年，明尼苏达州索马里社区的欺诈规模和范围令人震惊地浮出水面，而这是民主党副州长兼参议员候选人佩吉·弗拉纳根无法逃脱的事实，她的共和党挑战者米歇尔·塔福亚也正理所当然地利用这一点，就像明尼苏达州博览会上备受瞩目的奖牛一样。
DAVID MARCUS: PEGGY FLANAGAN'S DEI RECORD AND FRAUD SCANDAL PUT MINNESOTA SENATE RACE IN THE SPOTLIGHT Over the past year, the scope and scale of fraud in Minnesota’s Somali community has come to shocking light and it is something that Democratic Lt. Gov. and Senate candidate Peggy Flanagan cannot escape, and that her GOP challenger, Michelle Tafoya is rightfully milking like a top-prize heifer at the Minnesota state fair.
几个月前，几乎没有人预料到这次竞选会如此激烈，但这是因为评论家们在解读全国性的情绪，而不是明尼苏达州本地的情绪——而后者只能通过实地考察才能发现，而且如今那里的情绪非常愤怒。
This is a race that almost nobody expected to be competitive just a few months ago, but that is because pundits were reading the national mood, not the mood in Minnesota, which can only be found on the ground, and which is very angry.
俄亥俄州代顿充满了令人愉悦的人们，我曾与其中许多人交谈，我本希望能说一些更好的话来形容它，但事实上，它几乎已经是一座死城。令人惊叹的美丽建筑如今荒废着，就像对美好日子的粗犷提醒。
Dayton, Ohio is full of absolutely lovely people, many of whom I spoke with, and I wish I could say kinder things about it, but it is an all but a dead city. Stunningly beautiful buildings sit abandoned, like coarse reminders of better days.
代顿人以及俄亥俄州人民普遍想要和需要的是增长。问题不是他们负担不起生活，而是他们的社区没有繁荣、没有发展，他们想知道一个曾经伟大的州是否还能再次变得伟大。蓝色浪潮看似真实，直到你仔细观察在共和党现任参议员约翰·赫斯特与民主党人谢罗德·布朗之间的竞赛中，胜者将是能够说服俄亥俄州选民自己有一个计划，让代顿这样的城市重新振兴的人。
What Daytonites, as well as Ohians in general, want and need is growth. It's not that they can’t afford their lives, it's that their communities do not thrive, do not grow, and they want to know if a once great state can be great again. THE BLUE WAVE LOOKS REAL UNTIL YOU LOOK A LITTLE CLOSER In the race between Republican incumbent Sen. John Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown, the winner will be the one who can convince Ohio voters that they have a plan to bring cities like Dayton back.
与俄亥俄州的代顿相比，密歇根州的大急流城似乎像奥兹国。正如我的优步司机在接我途中告诉我的：“我送回机场的每个人都对这座城市赞不绝口。你也会如此。”而如今，我们确实身处其中。
Compared to Dayton, Ohio, Grand Rapids, Michigan seems like Oz. As my Uber driver told me on the drive in, "Everyone I take back to the airport raves about the city. You will, too."
就像底特律——这篇专栏最近也曾访问过的城市——大急流城也是一个充满活力的城镇，穿着整洁领带的财富创造者在街头穿梭，讨论交易并去吃午饭。你也能看到市中心的孩子们，他们所处的环境不仅彰显财富，更散发着真实感。
And here we are. Like Detroit, which this column also recently visited, Grand Rapids is a buzzing town, neat-necktied producers of wealth roam the streets discussing deals and going to lunch. You also see kids in a downtown that screams not just wealth, but authenticity.
利兹·皮克：两场动荡的参议院竞选可能破坏民主党的蓝色浪潮幻想 在共和党人迈克·罗杰斯和民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德之间的参议院竞选中，主要议题是谁能够维持密歇根州所经历的增长，以及谁该获得功劳：民主党州长格雷琴·惠特默，还是唐纳德·特朗普总统。
LIZ PEEK: TWO TROUBLED SENATE RACES COULD SPOIL DEMOCRATS' BLUE-WAVE FANTASY In the race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed for senate, the primary issue is who can sustain the growth that Michigan has experienced, and who gets the credit: Democrat Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, or President Donald Trump.
德克萨斯州是另一个最紧迫议题不是经济问题，而是文化问题的州。在这种情况下，共和党参议院候选人肯·帕克斯顿被普遍视为2026年最差的候选人，但他不仅是一位成功的司法部长，而且毫无疑问是地道的德克萨斯人，尽管他有诸多重大缺点。
Texas is another state where the most pressing issue is not economic, but rather, in this case, cultural. Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton has universally been tagged as the worst candidate of 2026, and yet not only is he a successful attorney general, he is also undeniably Texan, for all his big faults.
在詹姆斯·塔拉里科身上，民主党拥有一位曾经是素食者、单一论风格基督徒的人，他承认自己生活中最大的担忧是确保跨性别儿童能够获得有争议的外科手术。现在塔拉里科从他为期两周的流感中恢复过来，文化问题将会像暴雨般袭来，而他对此没有好的答案。
In James Talarico, Democrats have a once vegan, Unitarian-style Christian, who has admitted his biggest concern in life is making sure trans kids can get access to controversial surgical procedures. Now that Talerico is back from his two week bout of the flu, the cultural questions will be coming hot and heavy, and he has no good answer for them.
大家都在关注德克萨斯州和密歇根州。作为民意调查员，我知道真正的故事在哪里 当谈到经济时，美国人并不感到恐惧，但他们确实有疑问和顾虑。当我和斯普林菲尔德的雷吉交谈时，格雷格走了进来。他向高尔夫球场和商业公园销售自动割草机。
EVERYONE IS WATCHING TEXAS AND MICHIGAN. AS A POLLSTER, I KNOW WHERE THE REAL STORY IS When it comes to the economy, Americans are not in fear, but they do have questions and doubts. When I was talking with Reggie in Springfield, Greg came in. He sells autonomous lawn mowers to golf courses and commercial parks.
最终，雷吉——再次强调，他是从事建筑行业的——有点紧张地问：“自动叉车现在表现怎么样？”格雷格确认叉车的表现越来越好，但补充了一点有趣的事情。“一家园林公司不会靠操作割草机的人赚钱，”他说，并补充道，“他们靠修剪和修边的人赚钱。现在这就涉及两个人，你们每天可以多做一单活。”我不确定雷吉是否完全相信或感到宽慰。我也不确定自己在这种情况下是否持这种观点，但这正是中产阶级美国所存在的经济焦虑水平，而不是对是否能把食物放在餐桌上的恐惧。
Eventually Reggie, who again, is in construction, asked a bit nervously, "How good are the autonomous forklifts getting?" Greg confirmed that the forklifts were getting very good, but added something interesting. "A landscaping company doesn’t make money off the guy on a mower," he said, adding, "They make money from the guy trimming and edging. Now that's two guys and you can do an extra job every day." I’m not sure Reggie was fully convinced or relieved. I’m not sure if I was for that matter, but this is the level of economic anxiety that exists in Middle America, not dread over whether food can be put on the table.
这四个关键的参议院选举将由最了解本州本地议题的候选人赢得，而非那些在全国电视上因时代议题而惊艳的候选人。目前，在这四个州的选举中，正是共和党在这些议题上占据上风。
These four key senate races will be won by the candidates who best understand the local issues in their states, not the ones who wow on national TV over zeitgeist issues, and right now, in all four, it is the Republicans who have the upper hand on those issues.