
印度尼西亚继续与近年来最严重的山火之一作斗争,有毒雾霾蔓延至马来西亚和新加坡。洪水已对泰国、印度和尼泊尔的社区造成毁灭性影响。在靠近中国边境发生岩石和冰川灾难性崩塌之后,加德满都也在寻求气候正义。
Indonesia continues to battle some of its worst wildfires in years, spreading toxic haze to Malaysia and Singapore. Floods have devastated communities in Thailand, India and Nepal. Kathmandu is also seeking climate justice after a catastrophic collapse of rock and glacier ice near its border with China.
另一场环境悲剧正在悄然发生,缺乏如此戏剧化的画面。全球每年有数百万人死于空气污染。更多人正患有使人衰弱的疾病,这些疾病给家庭财政带来压力,使卫生服务不堪重负,并阻止他们工作。
Another environmental tragedy unfolds without such dramatic images. Across the world, millions of lives are lost each year to polluted air. Many more people live with debilitating illnesses that strain household finances, overwhelm health services and keep them from working.
那些将气候变化和空气污染单独规划和预算的政府,错过了通过同一项投资保护健康和增强经济的机会。
Governments that plan and budget for climate change and air pollution separately miss opportunities to protect health and strengthen their economies through the same investment.
我们最近共同主持了一项针对联合国环境规划署和气候与清洁空气联盟(CCAC)的评估,该评估为这些机遇赋予了价值。我们估计,2025年室外和室内空气污染导致全球约840万例过早死亡。室外细颗粒物污染还与550万例新发儿童哮喘病例、200万例新发痴呆病例以及数百万例其他严重疾病相关联。
We recently co-chaired an assessment for the UN Environment Programme and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) that puts a value on those opportunities. We estimate that outdoor and household air pollution caused about 8.4 million premature deaths worldwide in 2025. Outdoor fine-particle pollution was also associated with 5.5 million new cases of childhood asthma, 2 million new cases of dementia and millions of cases of other serious illnesses.
我们的评估是首次在一个内部一致的框架内量化气候和清洁空气行动的综合经济价值。一个关键创新是更全面地计算了与污染相关的疾病,即发病率,包括医疗费用和生产力损失——这些往往被传统分析低估。
Our assessment is the first to quantify the combined economic value of climate and clean-air action within a single, internally consistent framework. A key innovation is its fuller accounting of pollution-related illness, or morbidity, including healthcare costs and lost productivity that conventional analyses have often undervalued.
空气污染常被视为快速经济增长不可避免的代价,但污染的空气本身会施加许多巨大的成本。无论政府在考虑更清洁的能源或交通是否太昂贵时,这些损失都应被计入考量。
Air pollution has often been treated as an inevitable price of rapid economic growth, but polluted air itself imposes many enormous costs. Those losses should count whenever a government considers whether cleaner energy or transport is too expensive.
与此同时,我们也有理由保持乐观。电动汽车和可再生能源的更广泛普及,有助于改善当地空气质量,并减缓长期的全球变暖。我们的报告工作始于去年在北京启动,而北京空气质量取得的改善,正体现了持续的政策行动所能带来的成果。
At the same time, there is reason for optimism. Wider adoption of electric vehicles and renewable power can help improve local air quality and reduce long-term global warming. Work on our report began last year in Beijing, whose improvements in air quality demonstrate what sustained policy action can achieve.
我们的评估涵盖了能源系统、工业、交通、农业、居民供暖与烹饪以及废物管理领域的25项措施。除了长期的脱碳行动外,针对超级污染物——包括甲烷、黑碳和氢氟碳化合物——采取应对措施,也有助于减缓全球变暖。
Our assessment evaluates 25 measures across energy systems, industry, transport, agriculture, residential heating and cooking, and waste management. Complementing long-term decarbonisation, action on super pollutants – including methane, black carbon and hydrofluorocarbons – can help slow warming.
针对甲烷和黑碳的措施同样能够改善空气质量。甲烷会加剧近地面臭氧的形成,而臭氧会损害健康并降低农作物产量。黑碳是有害健康的烟灰成分之一,它会加热大气层,并在沉积于冰雪和冰川上时加速融化。
Measures targeting methane and black carbon also improve air quality. Methane contributes to ground-level ozone, which damages health and crop yields. Black carbon, a component of health-harming soot, warms the atmosphere and accelerates melting when deposited on snow and glaciers.
如果这一整套措施得以全面实施,每投资1美元可能带来约4美元的市场效益,包括减少医疗支出、提高生产力以及避免气候造成的损失。若将更长寿、更健康生活所带来的更广泛经济价值计算在内,总效益将提升至15美元。其中部分健康和经济收益甚至可能在单个政府任期内显现。
If the full package of measures is implemented, every US$1 invested could generate around US$4 in market benefits, including lower healthcare spending, higher productivity and avoided climate damage. Including the broader economic value of longer, healthier lives raises the benefits to US$15. Some health and economic gains can become apparent within a single term of government.
对于追求更快增长和平衡预算的政府而言,这4美元的市场效益尤其值得关注。疾病减少意味着更少的工作日损失,也减轻了对医疗服务的压力。减少高温暴露则能保护工人的健康与生产力。这些收益有助于增强经济实力,缓解公共财政的压力,尽管并非所有收益都直接归于政府。
For governments seeking faster growth and balanced budgets, the US$4 market benefit figure deserves particular attention. Fewer illnesses mean fewer working days lost and less pressure on health services. Reduced heat exposure protects workers’ health and productivity. These gains help strengthen economies and ease pressure on public finances, even though they do not all accrue directly to the government.
财政部应基于这些综合效益来评估各项投资。每延迟一年实施这一整套措施,我们将错失超过1.5万亿美元的效益,而这些损失将无法挽回。
Finance ministries should assess investments against these combined benefits. Each year of delay in implementing the package forfeits more than US$1.5 trillion in benefits we cannot recover.
全面落实这些措施可防止到2050年累计约1.44亿例因空气污染导致的过早死亡。与报告的基准情景相比,这些措施还可在本世纪中叶避免约0.34摄氏度的升温——这对限制超过1.5摄氏度升温阈值的超调幅度及其后果具有重要意义。
Full implementation of these measures could prevent an estimated 144 million premature deaths from air pollution cumulatively by 2050. Compared with the report’s baseline scenario, it could also avoid around 0.34 degrees Celsius of warming by mid-century – a significant contribution to limiting the extent and consequences of an overshoot beyond the 1.5 degree warming threshold.
政府无需自行承担所有投资。明确的立法、可预测的标准和可信的执法可鼓励私营企业采取行动。关于甲烷泄漏、车辆排放和制冷剂的规则可为更清洁的技术创造需求。各部门之间的更好协调可减少延误和实施成本。
Governments need not finance every investment themselves. Clear legislation, predictable standards and credible enforcement can encourage private businesses to act. Rules on methane leakage, vehicle emissions and refrigerants can create demand for cleaner technologies. Better coordination between ministries can reduce delays and implementation costs.
实现这些收益还需要关注谁有能力进行改变。家庭需要可靠获得清洁烹饪方式和经济实惠、节能的降温设施。农民需要实际可行的替代焚烧农作物残留物的方案。有针对性的公共支持和获得经济实惠融资的途径应从一开始就纳入实施方案。
Delivering these gains also requires attention to who can afford to change. Families need reliable access to cleaner cooking and affordable, energy-efficient cooling. Farmers need practical alternatives to burning crop residues. Targeted public support and access to affordable finance should be built into implementation from the start.
污染不分国界,因此邻国通过协调行动可获益良多。对无法承担必要前期投资的国家而言,国际金融支持仍然至关重要。这些优先事项应成为本周在曼谷举行的气候与清洁空气联盟年会以及今年11月在土耳其安塔利亚举行的联合国气候变化大会COP31的核心议题。
Pollution crosses borders, so neighbouring countries have much to gain from coordinating their efforts. International financial support also remains essential for countries unable to cover necessary upfront investments. These priorities belong at the centre of the CCAC Annual Meeting in Bangkok this week and the COP31 UN climate change conference in Antalya, Turkey, this November.
政府无需等待国际谈判取得突破。他们可以现在就消除障碍,启动投资。
Governments need not wait for a breakthrough in international negotiations. They can remove barriers and set investment in motion now.
从充满烟雾和洪水的城市到后退的冰川,亚洲通过共同应对空气污染和气候变化可获益良多。今天的投资可快速改善健康,并为后代带来经济利益。每一份推迟这些投资的预算都将让家庭和经济付出代价。
From smoke-filled and flooded cities to retreating glaciers, Asia has much to gain from tackling air pollution and climate change together. Investments made today can improve health quickly and deliver economic benefits for generations. Every budget that postpones them leaves families and economies paying the price.