十年前，英国脱欧公投之后，都柏林成立了一家研究机构。其目标？研究英国退出欧盟所产生的连锁反应。
Ten years ago, after the Brexit vote, a research institute was set up in Dublin. Its goal? To study the ripple effects of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union.
伊恩·库珀出生于萨斯喀彻温省，在阿尔伯塔省长大，目前在该机构——都柏林城市大学的英国脱欧研究所——担任高级研究员，绘制公投的政治和经济影响图谱。
Ian Cooper, who was born in Saskatchewan and grew up in Alberta, works at that institute — the Brexit Institute at Dublin City University — as a senior research fellow, mapping out the vote’s political and economic fallout.
近几个月来，他说自己忍不住产生了一种“似曾相识”的感觉。随着公投的临近，阿尔伯塔省发生的许多事情让他想起了英国脱欧前的局势，库珀如是说。出于对这些相似之处的感慨，他决定公开表达，于是乘坐飞机前往。
In recent months, he’s said he can’t help but feel a sense of “déjà vu.”Much of what has transpired in Alberta as the referendum approaches reminds him of the lead-up to Brexit, Cooper has said. Compelled to vocalize what he saw as parallels, he hopped on a flight.
《前线炉灶》21:03 英国脱欧对阿尔伯塔的启示 他于八月前往阿尔伯塔省中部的林姆拜，在那里，阿尔伯塔繁荣计划——一个著名的亲独立组织——举办了一场免费的市政厅会议。
Front Burner21:03Brexit's lessons for Alberta He made the journey in August to Rimbey in central Alberta, where a free town hall was hosted by the Alberta Prosperity Project, a prominent pro-independence organization.
他注意到现场有许多农民，他们自然会就独立阿尔伯塔的农业政策提出问题。他说，现场气氛是“尊重但不喧闹”的。
He noted the many farmers in the crowd, who naturally had questions about agricultural policy in an independent Alberta. The atmosphere was “respectful but not raucous,” he said.
CBC 采访都柏林城市大学英国脱欧研究所高级研究员伊恩·库珀 他还聆听了多场演讲，包括阿尔伯塔繁荣计划首席执行官米奇·西尔维斯特的演讲。
CBC speaks with Senior research fellow at Dublin City University's Brexit Institute, Ian Cooper He also listened to speeches, including one from Mitch Sylvestre, CEO of the Alberta Prosperity Project.
“我得说，他是个有才华的公众演讲者，作为演讲者，他具有一种特别的粗犷魅力，”库珀周二在接受CBC新闻网络采访时说道。库珀还发现，其宣传方式与英国“脱欧”运动相似。
“I'll give him this. He's a talented public speaker, and he has got a certain kind of gruff public charm as a public speaker,” Cooper told CBC News Network Tuesday. Cooper also saw parallels in the messaging to the "Leave" campaign in Britain.
“他们可以许下各种各样的诺言，称如果你投票支持独立，一切都将变得美好；如果阿尔伯塔成为一个独立国家，那就将是只有好处、没有坏处，”库珀说。
“They can make all kinds of wild promises about how everything’s going to be wonderful if you vote for independence, and if Alberta becomes an independent country, it’ll be all upsides and no downsides,” Cooper said.
“英国的‘脱欧’运动也是如此……只有在公投通过之后，人们才看到脱欧实际上将有多么艰难。” 英国脱欧十年后：有人幸福吗？
“That was also true of the ‘Leave’ campaign in Britain … only after the referendum passed did people see just how difficult Brexit was going to be.” 10 years after Brexit: Is anybody happy?
Sylvestre周二对CBC新闻表示，他不认为英国脱欧公投与阿尔伯塔省的公投具有可比性。
Sylvestre told CBC News Tuesday that he didn’t see the Brexit vote as analogous to Alberta’s referendum vote.
“我们这里资源非常丰富。只要我们生产的产品有市场，我们就会继续生产，”他说。“凭借我们这里的资源，我们基本上可以实现自给自足……所以，你知道，我认为我们会没事的。”与导致英国脱离欧盟的英国脱欧公投不同，阿尔伯塔省居民将在10月19日被要求在两个选项中选择其一：该省继续留在加拿大，或就脱离该国举行第二次具有约束力的公投。
“We’re very resource-rich here. And as long as there’s a market for what we produce, we’ll keep producing it,” he said. “With what we have here, we’re pretty much self-sufficient … so, you know, I think we’ll be fine.”Unlike the Brexit vote, which led to the U.K. leaving the European Union, Albertans will be asked Oct. 19 to choose one of two options: for the province to stay in Canada, or to hold a second binding referendum on separating from the country.
各种团体曾试图量化，如果阿尔伯塔省最终选择脱离加拿大并成功与渥太华及其他省份谈判独立，这在实践中将意味着什么。
Various groups have attempted to put numbers to what it would mean in practice if Albertans ultimately choose to leave Canada and successfully negotiate independence with Ottawa and the other provinces.
9月，卡尔加里大学公共政策学院估计，在五年内建立一个新国家的成本将在500亿至1700亿加元之间，并补充称，从长期来看，这一过程将高度不可预测。分离主义团体也提出了各自的预测。
In September, the University of Calgary School of Public Policy estimated the cost of establishing a new country between $50 billion and $170 billion over a five-year period, adding that it would be highly unpredictable over the long term. Separatist groups have also offered up projections.
9月，支持独立的阿尔伯塔过渡委员会估计，一次性费用约为50亿加元，同时预测独立的阿尔伯塔省每年可能拥有222亿至321亿加元的预算盈余。
In September, the pro-independence Alberta Transition Council estimated about $5 billion in one-time expenses, while predicting an independent Alberta would have a potential budget surplus of between $22.2 billion to $32.1 billion each year.
阿尔伯塔过渡委员会的律师基思·威尔逊驳斥了将阿尔伯塔独立与英国脱欧进行比较的观点，他认为英国脱欧是关于英国远离其最大市场——欧洲。
Lawyer Keith Wilson with the Alberta Transition Council has rejected comparisons to Brexit, arguing Brexit was about the U.K. moving away from its largest market, Europe.
“阿尔伯塔独立是关于阿尔伯塔更接近其最大市场以及世界上最大的市场——美国，”他今年早些时候表示。
"Alberta independence is about Alberta moving closer to its largest market and the largest market in the world, the United States,” he said earlier this year.
第三方广告商“通往独立之路”的负责人科里·摩根表示，可以从英国在脱欧公投后如何处理事务中汲取经验教训。“如果你达到了持票支持的阶段，你的工作远未结束，”他说。
Cory Morgan, who heads the third-party advertiser Pathway to Independence, said there are lessons to be drawn from how things were handled in the U.K. after the Brexit vote. “If you get to the point of a positive vote, your work is far from over,” he said.
“他们获得了投票，然后松开了方向盘。”这位阿尔伯塔省分离主义领袖表示，现在是离开加拿大的时候了。前英国首相驳斥了比较。大卫·卡梅伦，这位在英国脱欧公投前领导英国的前首相，于9月份访问了卡尔加里的一个能源会议。
“They got the vote, then took their hands off the steering wheel.”Why this Alberta separatist leader says it’s time to leave Canada Former British PM dismissed comparison David Cameron, who led the U.K. leading up to the Brexit vote, visited an energy conference in Calgary in September.
作为他讲话的一部分，卡梅伦驳斥了英国脱欧与阿尔伯塔省公投之间的比较，认为阿尔伯塔省的投票与一个国家的未来有关，而不是英国在一个贸易协会中的成员资格。
As part of his remarks, Cameron dismissed comparisons between Brexit and Alberta’s referendum, arguing Alberta’s vote is tied to the future of a country, rather than the U.K.’s membership in a trade association.
脱欧研究所的库珀表示，他同意卡梅伦的观点，即存在根本的结构性差异，因为阿尔伯塔省是一个主权国家的一个省份。
Cooper with the Brexit Institute said he agreed with Cameron that there is a fundamental structural difference, given Alberta is a province of a sovereign state.
但他表示，在他看来，卡梅伦“忽略了重点”，这个重点与政治领袖所扮演的角色有关。
But he said in his view, Cameron was “missing the point” tied to roles that political leaders play.
他指出，卡梅伦曾承诺就英国脱欧举行公投，以让其党内某些后座议员满意，尽管他自己曾反对英国脱欧。
He noted that Cameron promised a referendum on Brexit to keep certain backbenchers in his party happy, though he himself campaigned against Brexit.
“你可以看到阿尔伯塔省正在发生同样的事情。丹妮尔·史密斯，她本人正在为留在加拿大而奔走……但她试着安抚自己政党中强硬的、亲分离主义的派系，”他说。
“You can see the same kind of thing happening in Alberta. Danielle Smith, she herself is campaigning in favour of remaining in Canada … but she’s trying to appease the hardcore, pro-separatist wing of her own party,” he said.
史密斯表示，她在一些分离主义者眼中是“头号公敌”。英国最终投票决定脱欧，有52%的人支持。
Smith says she's ‘public enemy No. 1’ to some separatists Britain ended up voting to leave, with 52 per cent in favour.
与阿尔伯塔省公投相关的民调显示，竞争并不激烈。最近的一项民调显示，23%的受访者表示他们将投票启动法律程序以举行具有约束力的公投，而72%的人表示他们希望留在加拿大。
Polls tied to Alberta’s referendum have suggested a less competitive race. A recent poll suggested 23 per cent of respondents would vote to start the legal process to hold a binding referendum, while 72 per cent said they wanted to remain in Canada.
但民调显示，在那些表示他们会投票给联合保守党（UCP）的人中，情况截然不同：53%的人表示他们会投票支持分离选项，而40%的人表示他们会投票留在加拿大。
But polling suggests a very different picture among those who said they’d vote for the UCP, with 53 per cent saying they’d vote for the separation option, while 40 per cent said they’d vote to stay in Canada.
史密斯一直是联邦政策的频繁批评者，她认为这些政策使阿尔伯塔省处于不利地位。但在马克·卡尼担任总理期间，史密斯认为“加拿大的运作状况比以往任何时候都好”，她引用了诸如西海岸管道（官方名称为太平洋链路）等发展项目作为证据。相当于一场“政治炖菜”库珀表示，在英国脱欧公投之后，“离开”和“留阵”两派在英国政治格局中变得根深蒂固。
Smith was a frequent critic of federal policies that she argued disadvantaged Alberta. But under Prime Minister Mark Carney, Smith has argued that “Canada is working better than it ever has,” citing developments like the West Coast pipeline, officially known as Pacific Link. Quite the 'political stew' Cooper said that in the wake of the Brexit vote, the “Leave” and “Remain” camps became entrenched in the United Kingdom’s political landscape.
“启动这一进程……可能会导致阿尔伯塔省出现非常、非常激烈的辩论，”他说。
“To start this process … could lead to a very, very acrimonious debate within Alberta,” he said.
独立之路组织的摩根表示，无论投票结果如何，都将出现相当程度的“政治炖菜”。
Morgan with Pathway to Independence said there is going to be quite the “political stew going on,” no matter which way the vote goes.
“如果投票结果是‘是’，她将陷入严重困境，因为[UCP]成员和许多阿尔伯塔人会期望她尽快推进此事。如果她拖延脚步，这可能会引发大量政治动荡，”摩根说。
“If the vote goes 'yes,' she’s in dire trouble, because she’s going to be expected by the [UCP] members and a lot of Albertans to get moving on it. If she drags her feet, that could lead to a lot of political turmoil,” Morgan said.
“同样，如果投票结果是‘否’，她就必须想办法如何阻止她党内不满的派系离开去另行成立一个新政党。”
“Likewise, if there’s a 'no' vote, she’s got to figure out then how to keep the discontented faction of her party from marching off to start another party.”