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黑石集团乔纳森·格雷:为何认为印度正接近经济转折点Why Blackstone's Jon Gray believes India is close to an economic tipping point

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黑石集团总裁乔纳森·格雷认为,印度正接近一个经济转折点,从新兴市场转变为全球投资组合的核心部分。他指出,基础设施增长、商品及服务税(GST)以及5万亿美元的股票市场为印度进入下一个增长阶段奠定了基础。

Blackstone President Jon Gray believes India is nearing an economic tipping point, shifting from an emerging market to a core global portfolio. He cited infrastructure growth, GST, and a $5 trillion stock market as foundations for India's next growth phase.

根据黑石集团总裁乔纳森·格雷的说法,印度正接近一个转折点,届时全球投资者可能会从根本上重新审视印度,摆脱其传统的新兴市场定位,成为世界上最大的经济体和股票市场之一。

India is nearing a point where global investors could view it in a fundamentally different light, moving beyond its traditional emerging-market status to become one of the world's largest economies and stock markets, according to Blackstone President Jon Gray.

在一次独家采访中,格雷表示,过去二十年在基础设施、税收改革和资本市场扩张方面的投资,为印度的下一个增长阶段奠定了基础。他认为,印度有望在全球舞台上成为更重要的参与者,投资者正越来越多地将印度视为其投资组合的核心市场,而非边缘的新兴市场投注。

In an exclusive interview, Gray said two decades of investment in infrastructure, tax reforms and the expansion of capital markets had laid the foundations for India's next phase of growth. He believes the country could emerge as a bigger player on the global stage, with investors increasingly treating India as a core portfolio market rather than a peripheral emerging-market bet.

投资者正将印度视为其投资组合的核心部分,而非某种较小的、边缘化的新兴市场。乔纳森·格雷,黑石集团总裁基础设施、GST和资本市场推动转变格雷将印度经济形态的变化归因于实体基础设施的改善、商品及服务税(GST)的引入以及资本市场深度的提升。

Investors are looking at India as a core part of their portfolios, rather than as some sort of smaller, fringe emerging market.JONATHAN GRAY, PRESIDENT OF BLACKSTONE GROUP Infrastructure, GST and capital markets drive the shift Gray attributed India's changing economic profile to improvements in physical infrastructure, the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the growing depth of its capital markets.

他提到,机场和立交桥的建设使城市内出行更快捷,与此同时,GST取代了多层次的州级间接税,构建了更统一的税收框架。

He cited airports and flyovers that have made travel within cities faster, alongside GST, which replaced multiple state-level indirect taxes with a more unified framework.

格雷表示,印度的股票市场也已增长至5万亿美元的市值。他引用黑石集团在八月份单笔出售某家公司价值超过10亿美元的股票作为证据,说明印度资本市场已经达到的规模。

India's stock market has also grown to a market capitalisation of $5 trillion, Gray said. He cited Blackstone's sale of more than $1 billion worth of stock in a single company in August as evidence of the scale India's capital markets have achieved.

这些变化已经帮助重塑了金融投资者以及希望在印度建立存在感的公司(包括通过制造业)对印度的看法。为什么格雷认为印度的增长潜力还有很大空间?

The changes have helped reshape perceptions of India among both financial investors and companies looking to establish a presence in the country, including through manufacturing.

格雷的乐观态度源于以下几个因素:印度的人均收入相对较低、劳动力受教育程度较高、具备较强的技术能力,以及政府为支持经济增长而制定的各项政策。

Why Gray believes India's growth story has further to run Gray's optimism is underpinned by India's relatively low per capita income, educated workforce, technological capabilities and government policies aimed at supporting economic growth.

他指出,印度的人均GDP约为3000美元,仅相当于美国的三分之一,这意味着印度仍有巨大的经济增长空间。

He noted that India's GDP per capita was around $3,000, approximately one-thirtieth of the US level, leaving considerable scope for economic expansion.

尽管人们对能源价格上涨以及人工智能(AI)可能对IT服务行业造成的冲击表示担忧,但格雷表示,印度经济在最近一个季度仍增长了近8%。他认为,印度的经济增长速度使其与其他大型经济体区别开来。

Despite concerns over higher energy prices and the potential disruption of artificial intelligence (AI) to the IT services industry, India's economy grew almost 8% in the most recent quarter, Gray said. He argued that the country's growth rate sets it apart from other large economies.

与更成熟的市场不同,在那些市场中投资者通常会专注于收购现有的企业和资产;而在印度,投资者则有机会通过创业来满足不断增长的市场需求。

Unlike more developed markets, where investors may focus on acquiring established businesses and assets, India offers opportunities to build businesses to serve rising demand.

在更成熟的市场中,投资者可能只需购买现有的企业或房地产即可;但在印度,投资者必须亲自参与创业活动,才能抓住市场机遇。

In a more developed market, you might simply buy existing businesses or existing real estate.

——乔纳森·格雷(Jonathan Gray),黑石集团(Blackstone Group)总裁

Here, you really have to be a builder.JONATHAN GRAY, PRESIDENT OF BLACKSTONE GROUP