东京 — — “滴答，滴答 ... 砰！”法国《费加罗报》在10月3日发表的一篇社论标题中，将该国的财政危机比作滴答作响的定时炸弹。
TOKYO -- "Tic-tac, tic-tac ... boum!" In the headline of an editorial published on Oct. 3, French newspaper Le Figaro likened the country's fiscal crisis to a ticking time bomb.
前一天，法国和德国10年期国债收益率之差 — — 衡量法国主权债务信心的指标 — — 扩大至约1.5个百分点。这是近15年来的最大差距，自2011-12年欧洲债务危机以来。
The day before, the spread between yields on 10-year French and German government bonds -- a gauge of confidence in French sovereign debt -- widened to around 1.5 percentage points. That was the largest gap in nearly 15 years, since the European debt crisis of 2011-12.
在有报道称住友三井DS资产管理公司的全球固定收益部门已售出其持有的所有法国国债后，抛售一度加剧。关于法国与债券市场最新对峙的各种表态层出不穷。
Selling intensified at one point after reports emerged that Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management's global fixed-income group had sold all of its holdings of French government bonds. Various pronouncements have been made about France's latest standoff with the bond market.
“在法国，人们经常谈论 — — 而且往往是轻描淡写 — — 减少公共债务。没有人真正理解这将有多么必要或困难，”法国著名公共知识分子雅克·阿塔利警告说。“只有思想的根本转变才能使法国避免破产。”
"In France, people often speak -- often lightly -- about reducing public debt. No one truly grasps how necessary or difficult it will be," warned Jacques Attali, one of France's leading public intellectuals. "Only a radical shift in mindset will enable France to avoid bankruptcy."
与此同时，法国经济学家托马斯·皮凯蒂在题为《1789，1945，2026：三次法国债务危机》的文章中呼吁征收财富税。他们的处方各不相同，但危机感是相同的。
French economist Thomas Piketty, meanwhile, called for a wealth tax in an essay titled "1789, 1945, 2026: Three French debt crises." Their prescriptions differ, but the sense of crisis is the same.
法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙在10月2日于巴黎与七国集团领导人视频会议后发表讲话。
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks following a video conference with G7 leaders in Paris on Oct. 2.
法国的财政困难也正在给教育蒙上阴影。根据政府数据，全国超过26万人于10月6日参加了由高中生领导的示威活动，要求改善学习环境，包括修缮老旧设施和应对教师短缺的措施。
France's fiscal difficulties are also casting a pall over education. More than 260,000 people across the country, according to government figures, took part in demonstrations led by high school students on Oct. 6 demanding improvements in the learning environment, including repairs to aging facilities and measures to address teacher shortages.
法国缺乏财政纪律并非新鲜事。该国自1974年第一次石油危机以来，从未录得预算盈余。即便如此，2026年政府债务占国内生产总值的比例达到119%，这是自1946年以来的最高水平，据《世界报》报道。
France's lack of fiscal discipline is nothing new. The country has not recorded a budget surplus since 1974, following the first oil crisis. Even so, government debt in 2026 stands at 119% of gross domestic product, the highest level since 1946, Le Monde reports.
法国案件之所以严重，并非仅仅因为其债务规模。问题在于治理。恢复该国公共财政需要政治决策，但其政治体系已出现分裂。
What makes France's case serious is not simply the size of its debt. The problem is governance. Restoring the country's public finances requires political decisions, but its political system is fractured.
民意调查显示，极右翼民族联盟（RN）的玛丽娜·勒庞在明年4月18日总统选举第一轮投票之前，始终保持对其他候选人的领先优势。她还在假设的5月2日第二轮投票中，领先于四位主要潜在对手。
Opinion polls show Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally (RN) maintaining a steady lead over other candidates ahead of the first round of the presidential election on April 18 next year. She also leads each of four major potential rivals in hypothetical matchups for the May 2 runoff.
极右翼民族联盟（RN）的玛丽娜·勒庞在明年法国总统选举的民意调查中保持领先。
Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally (RN) leads opinion polls for next year's French presidential election.
不确定性的一个来源是学校抗议活动，在此期间，示威者焚烧了堆积的垃圾，并与使用催泪瓦斯的警察发生冲突。
One source of uncertainty is the school protests, during which demonstrators have burned piles of garbage and clashed with tear-gas firing police.
享有年轻选民强烈支持的激进左翼法国不屈党（LFI）的让-吕克·梅朗雄一直在访问抗议现场。虽然激进左翼对示威活动表示同情，但RN强调法律与秩序。抗议活动的升级可能会将教育政策的辩论转变为公共安全问题。
Jean-Luc Melenchon of the radical-left France Unbowed (LFI), which enjoys strong support among younger voters, has been visiting protest sites. While the radical left has shown sympathy for the demonstrations, the RN has emphasized law and order. An escalation of the protests could transform a debate over education policy into an issue of public security.
一场电视辩论在巴黎的一名17岁高中生、LFI支持者、参与抗议的埃文·B.与波尔多的一名22岁大学生、RN成员、批评暴力的路易丝·蒙唐戈之间进行，该辩论在全球范围内传播，包括日本的社交媒体。
A televised debate between Elwan B., a 17-year-old Paris high school student and LFI supporter who took part in the protests, and Louise Montangon, a 22-year-old university student in Bordeaux and RN member who criticized the violence, spread worldwide, including to Japanese social media.
随着左右派的冲突，埃马纽埃尔·马克龙总统的中间派联盟一直难以让其存在感被感知。理论上，如果前总理加布里埃尔·阿塔尔退出，并且该联盟团结在另一名前总理爱德华·菲利普身后，它有可能缩小与勒庞的差距，但情况并非如此简单。
As the left and right clash, President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance has struggled to make its presence felt. In theory, it could close the gap with Le Pen if former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal stepped aside and the bloc united behind Edouard Philippe, another former prime minister, but things are not so simple.
“激进左翼和极右翼在政策上存在分歧，但它们共享反建制立场，并反对传统的主要政党，”东京外国语大学名誉教授渡边弘隆说道。
"The radical left and the far right differ in their policies, but they share an anti-establishment position and opposition to the traditional major parties," said Hirotaka Watanabe, professor emeritus at Tokyo University of Foreign Studies.
在1988年总统大选的第二轮投票中，极右翼选票流向了左翼。由于双方选民可能跨越传统政治界限，结果难以预测。
In the runoff to the 1988 presidential election, far-right votes flowed to the left. With voters on both sides potentially crossing traditional political boundaries, the outcome is difficult to predict.
让-吕克·梅朗雄是激进左翼“不屈法国”党的创始人和事实上的领导人。
Jean-Luc Melenchon is the founder and de facto leader of the radical-left France Unbowed party.
法德国债收益率差距扩大的导火索是马克龙在2024年决定解散国民议会——即议会下院。随后的选举中，没有任何党派获得多数席位，导致法国出现悬峙议会，议会被三大政治派别瓜分。自那以后，政治不稳定局面持续存在，政府因预算争议而频繁垮台。
The trigger for the widening French-German yield spread was Macron's decision to dissolve the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, in 2024. No group won a majority in the ensuing election, leaving France with a hung parliament divided among three blocs. Political instability has persisted since then, with governments falling amid disputes over the budget.
下一任总统上任后很可能会解散国民议会，以争取更稳固的执政基础。如果这一策略失败，法国可能面临持续的政治僵局，或出现被称为“共居”的权力分享安排——即总统和总理所属政党不同。
The next president is likely to dissolve the National Assembly after taking office in an effort to secure a more stable governing base. If that gambit fails, France could face continued political gridlock or a power-sharing arrangement dubbed "cohabitation," in which the president and prime minister belong to different parties.
寻找政治上的“缓冲带”并不容易，但过度悲观似乎没有必要。在2012年欧元区债务危机达到高峰时，德国国债与受冲击严重的希腊国债之间的收益率差曾一度升至约40个百分点。
Finding a political off-ramp will not be easy, but excessive pessimism seems unwarranted. At the height of the 2012 eurozone debt crisis, the yield spread between German bonds and hard-hit Greek debt grew as high as around 40 percentage points.
“目前，法国出现类似希腊危机那样的违约风险或需要救助的可能性较低，” 说的是庆应义塾大学教授、前日本央行政策委员会成员白井沙由里。法国当时并不存在“涉及预算赤字操纵、极端经常账户赤字或银行业危机”的情况，而希腊当时正面临这些问题。
"Currently, the likelihood of France reaching the point of default, as in the Greek crisis, or requiring a bailout is low," said Sayuri Shirai, a professor at Keio University and former Bank of Japan policy board member. France has none of the "statistical manipulation involving budget deficits, extreme current-account deficits or the banking crisis that Greece had at the time."
“法国仍然可以发行政府债券并筹集资金，” 白井说。“我们也不处于欧洲央行大规模购买法国政府债务的情形之中。” 在弗朗索瓦·密特朗政府推进主要公司国有化和最低工资提高、导致1982财年预算激增的时候，法德收益率差一度超过7个百分点。那是在欧洲货币联盟之前，当时法国法郎承受抛售压力。
"France can still issue government bonds and raise funds," Shirai said. "Nor are we in a situation where the European Central Bank is making large-scale purchases of French government debt." The French-German yield spread topped 7 percentage points when the government of Francois Mitterrand pushed ahead with the nationalization of major companies and increases in the minimum wage, causing the budget for fiscal 1982 to swell. That was before the European monetary union, and the French franc came under selling pressure.
法郎经历三次贬值后，“结果是全国决定远离社会主义、加速欧洲一体化以恢复财政可信度，” 说的是同志社大学教授吉田透。
After three devaluations of the franc, "the result was a national decision to move away from socialism and accelerate European integration to restore fiscal credibility," said Toru Yoshida, professor at Doshisha University.
再往前追溯，经济学家卡门·莱因哈特和肯尼斯·罗格夫发现，法国上一次彻底违约外债——不计通胀导致的货币贬值——发生在1788年，即法国大革命前一年。在他们这部研究800年金融危机的里程碑式著作《此次不同》中，他们将这一记录描述为“非同寻常”。
Looking further back, economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff found that France's last outright default on external debt -- excluding inflation-driven debasement -- occurred in 1788, the year before the French Revolution. In their landmark study of 800 years of financial crises, "This Time Is Different," they describe the record as "remarkable."
“英语单词‘crisis’（危机）的词源含义是转折点，”吉田说。“从这个意义上说，毫无疑问法国正处于危机之中。”与此同时，他强调：“欧元不会崩溃，欧盟也不会解体。”借用拿破仑的话说，“违约”一词不存在于法国财政政策的字典里。但避免崩溃与真正恢复财政健康是两码事。法国分裂的政治能否团结一致、为国家利益做出决策，仍有待观察。
"The origin of the English word 'crisis' means turning point," Yoshida said. "In that sense, there is no doubt that France is at a crisis." At the same time, he emphasized that "the euro will not collapse, nor will the European Union fall apart." To paraphrase Napoleon, the word "default" does not appear in the dictionary of French fiscal policy. But avoiding a collapse and actually restoring fiscal health are two different things. It remains to be seen whether France's divided politics can come together to make a decision for the sake of the nation.