自2009年以来，非洲正朝着获得穆迪评级首次上调的正确方向前进，前提是该国的财政表现继续改善。
Africa is heading in the right direction for its first credit-rating upgrade by Moody’s Ratings since 2009, provided the country’s fiscal performance continues to improve.
该机构将南非的评级定为Ba2 — 低于投资级两个档次 — 在5月份将南非的信用展望从稳定上调至积极。它表示，该国在稳定债务并实施促增长经济改革后，已经达到一个拐点。
The agency, which rates South Africa Ba2 — two notches below investment grade — revised South Africa’s credit outlook to positive from stable in May. It says the country has reached an inflection point after stabilizing its debt and delivering pro-growth economic reforms.
“如果财政表现继续改善，我们可能会上调南非的评级，”穆迪副总裁埃文·沃尔曼在周二的虚拟媒体简报会上表示。他说，该评估将取决于对信用状况如何演变的信心。
“We could upgrade South Africa’s rating if fiscal performance continues to improve,” Evan Wohlmann, a vice president at Moody’s, told a virtual media briefing on Tuesday. The assessment would hinge on confidence in how the credit profile will evolve, he said.
财政部长埃诺克·戈东瓦纳将于10月21日发表中期预算审查，预计将展示该国初级预算盈余的持续增长 — — 这是衡量收入超过非利息支出多少的指标 — — 在收入增加的背景下。
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivers his mid-term budget review on Oct. 21 and is expected to show continued growth in the country’s primary budget surplus – a gauge of how much revenue exceeds non-interest expenditure – amid higher income.
沃尔曼表示，基准预测是债务将在上一财年达到国内生产总值的87%的峰值，随后在十年末逐步降至国内生产总值的84%，这一趋势得益于经济产出的提升。
Wohlmann said the baseline forecast was for debt that peaked in the last fiscal year at 87% of gross domestic product to gradually decline to 84% of GDP by the end of the decade, supported by an uptick in economic output.
非洲最大的经济体在过去十年平均增长率低于1%。但结构性改革开始见效，Nedbank集团有限公司预测，未来两年增长率将提升至1.9%，到2030年可能达到2.5%。
Africa’s largest economy has expanded by less than 1% on average over the past decade. But structural reforms are beginning to deliver, with Nedbank Group Ltd. predicting growth will edge up to 1.9% in the next two years with 2.5% possible by 2030.
该国将于11月4日举行市政选举，这可能导致非洲国民大会进一步失去支持，给总统西里尔·拉马福萨施加压力，他将在明年年底之前卸任党魁职务，以便在2029年进行大选之前。尽管如此，穆迪认为政治将南非推离改革道路的风险较低。
The country holds municipal elections on Nov. 4 that may result in a further loss of support for the African National Congress, bringing pressure to bear on President Cyril Ramaphosa who is due to step down as the party’s leader at the end of next year before general elections in 2029. Still, Moody’s sees a low risk of politics pushing South Africa away from its reform path.
“我们认为即将到来的选举周期导致政策逆转的风险有限，”沃尔曼说，并援引南非在2024年转向联合政府的例子——这一转变发生在国民大会党因公众对高失业率和服务提供不佳的不满而失去议会多数席位之后。
“We see the risk of a reversal in policy from the forthcoming electoral cycle as limited,” Wohlmann said, citing South Africa’s shift to a coalition government in 2024 after the ANC lost its parliamentary majority amid public anger over high unemployment and poor service delivery.
穆迪的记录显示，其对持有正面展望的主权信用评级的上调比例约为60%。
Moody’s track record shows it upgrades about 60% of the sovereign credits that it assigns with a positive outlook.
然而，恢复南非的投资级评级可能需要一些时间。穆迪首次下调南非评级（由Baa1降至Baa2）与使其跌出投资级范围的下调（发生在2020年）之间相隔八年，初始下调发生在2012年。
Still, restoring South Africa’s investment-grade rating may take some time. There were eight years between Moody’s initially downgrading South Africa, when it was lowered to Baa2 from Baa1 in 2012, and the cut that took it below investment grade in 2020.
穆迪评级部门高级副总裁卢西亚·维拉表示，基于过去经验，在降级周期中，每年的负面评级行动（即连续的负面评级调整）平均大约是升级周期的两倍。
Lucia Villa, Moody’s senior vice president for ratings, said that based on past experience, there were roughly twice the number of annual notches in a downgrade cycle, or consecutive negative rating actions, versus in an upgrade cycle on average.