航空分析公司预测，受益于窄体客机全球需求的强劲以及国内订单储备，到2045年，中国的主要民用飞机制造商将占据全球机队份额的5%。
China’s chief civilian aircraft builder will command 5 per cent of the world’s fleet allocation by 2045 as global demand for narrowbody jets and the domestic order book look strong, an aviation analytics firm has forecast.
分析公司睿思誉（Cirium）于周二预测，空中客车公司将拥有47%的客机机队份额，波音公司将拥有39%，这两家公司都将领先于国有企业中国商用飞机有限责任公司。该分析公司表示，巴西航空工业公司将占据3%，ATR公司将占据2%。
Airbus would have 47 per cent of the passenger fleet allocation and Boeing 39 per cent, both leading state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac), analytics firm Cirium forecast on Tuesday. It said Embraer would take 3 per cent and ATR 2 per cent.
独立航空分析师李瀚明表示，中国商飞目前占全球机队份额的大约1%。
Comac has a roughly 1 per cent share of today’s world fleet allocation, independent aviation analyst Li Hanming said.
睿思誉在其年度机队展望摘要中表示，预测的份额分配将“表明空中客车和波音的集中度持续存在，同时朝着”新兴制造商方向“发生逐渐转变”。
In a summary of its annual aircraft fleet outlook, Cirium said the forecast allocations would “illustrate the persistence of the Airbus and Boeing concentration alongside the gradual shift” towards emerging manufacturers.
总部位于上海的中国商飞正试图通过销售其C909支线客机和窄体客机C919来扩大其全球市场份额。
Shanghai-based Comac is trying to expand its world market share through sales of its C909 regional jet and narrowbody C919.
于2023年投入商业运营的C919已获得中国各家航空公司超过1000架订单，但中国商飞去年仅交付了15架，低于75架的目标，今年第一季度仅交付了3架。
The C919, which debuted commercially in 2023, has received more than 1,000 orders from Chinese airlines, but Comac delivered just 15 last year, below a target of 75, and only three in the first quarter of this year.
中国商飞仍在寻求适航认证以使C919能够在欧盟境内飞行，而据报道美国正在限制向中国运送美国制造的飞机发动机及其他零部件，从而延迟了该公司的生产计划。
Comac is still seeking certification to enable C919 flights in the European Union, while the United States is reportedly restricting shipments of American-made aircraft engines and other parts to China, delaying the company’s production plans.
睿思誉的报告称，到2045年，中国将占全球飞机机队份额的18%，由于窄体客机具有“更大的座位容量和单位成本效率”，它们将领先于其他更大的机型。窄体飞机占建模客机机队份额的76%，而支线客机仅占3%。
China would account for 18 per cent of the world’s aircraft fleet allocation by 2045, Cirium’s report said, with narrowbody jets leading other larger variants because of their “greater seat capacity and unit cost efficiency”. Narrowbody planes represent 76 per cent of the modelled passenger fleet allocation, compared with just 3 per cent for regional jets.
单过道的C919可与空中客车A320和波音737型号相媲美。
The single-aisle C919 is comparable to the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 models.
睿思誉表示，预计到2045年的几年里，全球客机机队将实现3.2%的复合年增长率，略低于其去年预测的增长率。该机构表示，全球供应链瓶颈、成本压力以及“地缘政治不确定性”正在限制产能增加的速度。
Cirium said the global passenger fleet was expected to see compound annual growth of 3.2 per cent in the years to 2045, slightly below the growth rate it forecast last year. It said global supply chain bottlenecks, cost pressures and “geopolitical uncertainty” were limiting the pace of added capacity.
该机构预测，2026年至2045年间，全球将交付约4.3万架新客机、货机和涡轮螺旋桨飞机，按当下的美元计算，总价值估计为3.2万亿美元，并且到2045年将有超过5万架客机投入使用。
It forecast that about 43,000 new passenger jets, freighter jets and turboprop aircraft would be delivered globally between 2026 and 2045 – with an estimated total value of US$3.2 trillion in today’s dollars – and that more than 50,000 passenger aircraft would be in use by 2045.