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印度消费品企业第四季度销售强劲但面临利润率挤压Indian consumer firms face margin squeeze despite strong quarterly sales

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多位分析师表示,印度消费品制造商预计将报告9月当季利润率收窄,尽管销售额实现两位数增长,因为原材料成本上涨超过了价格上涨。

Indian consumer goods makers are expected to report narrower September-quarter profit margins despite double-digit sales growth as rising raw material costs outweigh price increases, several analysts said.

他们表示,成本上升正在挤压这些公司的利润率,尽管印度最大的几家上市公司预计将报告更快的利润增长。

Rising costs are squeezing margins at these companies, they said, even as India's largest listed companies are expected to report faster profit growth.

总部位于孟买的Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers副总监坦维·坎坎(Tanvi Kanchan)表示:“公司采取了有分寸的选择性提价,而不是全面提价,并将其与成本节约和采购效率结合起来。”

"Companies have taken calibrated, selective price increases rather than broad hikes, and combined them with cost savings and procurement efficiencies," said Tanvi Kanchan, associate director at Mumbai-based Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers.

“这保护了收入,但大多数公司仍在利润率中消化部分成本增加。”印度雀巢(NEST.NS)将于周四拉开该行业第二季度财报的序幕。

"That has protected revenue, but most companies are still absorbing part of the cost increase in their margins." Nestle India (NEST.NS) kicks off the sector's second quarter earnings on Thursday.

Systematix预计,10家主要必需消费品公司的营业利润率将比去年同期收缩45个基点,尽管在销量增长8%和5%-6%的涨价驱动下,营收增长了约13%。

Systematix expects operating margins at 10 major consumer staples firms to shrink 45 basis points from a year earlier, despite revenue growth of about 13%, driven by an 8% rise in volumes and price increases of 5%-6%.

Kotak Institutional Equities预测其覆盖范围内的利润率将大幅下降150个基点,而杰富瑞(Jefferies)则预计除ITC和Varun Beverages外,必需消费品公司的利润率将下降45个基点。

Kotak Institutional Equities forecasts a steeper 150-basis-point margin decline across its coverage, while Jefferies expects a 45-basis-point drop for staples firms excluding ITC and Varun Beverages.

Nifty快速消费品指数(.NIFTYFMCG)今年已下跌18.8%,成为继Nifty IT指数(.NIFTYIT)之后表现第二差的板块指数,而基准Nifty 50指数(.NSEI)则下跌了13.2%。

The Nifty FMCG index (.NIFTYFMCG) has fallen 18.8% this year, making it the second-worst performing sectoral index after Nifty IT (.NIFTYIT), compared with a 13.2% decline in the benchmark Nifty 50 (.NSEI).

Systematix预计印度斯坦联合利华(HLL.NS)和不列颠产业(BRIT.NS)受到的利润率冲击最大,分别下降约150和137个基点,因为更高的投入成本对盈利能力造成了压力。

Systematix expects Hindustan Unilever (HLL.NS) and Britannia Industries (BRIT.NS) to take the biggest margin hits with a drop of about 150 and 137 basis points respectively, as higher input costs weigh on profitability.

最近的季度更新强化了对需求健康的预期,其中戈德瑞消费品公司(Godrej Consumer Products)预测营收将实现高十几的增长,达伯(Dabur)预计销售额和利润将实现两位数增长。

Recent quarterly updates have reinforced expectations of healthy demand, with Godrej Consumer Products forecasting high-teens revenue growth and Dabur expecting double-digit sales and profit growth.

两家公司都指出了不断上升的投入成本,同时达伯还警告称营业利润率面临压力。

Both have flagged rising input costs, while Dabur has also warned of pressure on operating margins.

投资者将密切关注进一步的价格上涨、季风降雨不均之后的农村需求,以及较晚的排灯节是否会将节日支出推迟到12月当季。

Investors will watch for further price increases, rural demand after uneven monsoon rains and whether a later Diwali shifts festive spending into the December quarter.

坎坎表示,由于原油和棕榈油价格高企以及卢比走软提高了进口成本,成本压力可能会持续到本财年下半年。

Cost pressures could persist through the second half of the fiscal year due to high crude and palm oil prices and a weaker rupee, which raises import costs, Kanchan said.

她补充说:“真正的利润率回升更有可能从3月当季开始,而且前提是大宗商品价格回落。”

"A real margin recovery is more likely from the March quarter onwards, and only if commodities cool," she added.