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首个民调显示:瑞士预计将否决旨在资助养老金的增税提案Swiss Set to Reject Tax Hike to Fund Pensions, First Poll Shows

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瑞士公民倾向于否决提高增值税以资助更高养老金的提案,这使得政府不得不重新筹划如何为该措施筹措资金。

Swiss citizens are leaning toward rejecting an increase in value-added tax to fund higher pensions, sending the government back to the drawing board on how to finance the measure.

根据报业集团Tamedia/20 Minuten在11月29日投票前于周三公布的一项民调,约60%的受访者可能会或一定会投票反对该提案。

About 60% of respondents will probably or definitely vote against the proposal, according to a poll published Wednesday by newspaper group Tamedia/20 Minuten ahead of a Nov. 29 ballot.

在瑞士公民于2024年违背政府意愿,投票支持一项由工会支持的计划、决定从今年12月起向退休人员发放第13个月养老金后,伯尔尼政府提议将销售税提高0.4个百分点。

Bern proposed the increase of sales tax by 0.4 percentage points after Swiss citizens, against the government’s advice, chose in 2024 to back a union-backed plan to give pensioners a 13th monthly payment starting this December.

该养老金动议并未提供筹措每年40亿瑞郎(约合48亿美元)额外成本的计划,导致部长们仓促寻找资金。他们最终选择了提议自2028年起提高增值税,官员称这将带来每年约15亿瑞郎的额外收入。

The pension initiative didn’t provide a plan to fund the additional annual cost of 4 billion francs ($4.8 billion), and sent ministers scrambling to find the money. They ended up going for the proposed VAT increase from 2028, which officials say will result in additional revenue of around 1.5 billion francs per year.

右翼瑞士人民党和亲商的自由民主党均建议公民否决该法案,周三的民调显示,两党选民坚决反对该法案。尽管如此,无论政党倾向如何,支持率均未达到50%。

The right-wing SVP and business-friendly FDP both recommended that citizens reject the bill, and Wednesday’s poll shows that their voters firmly oppose it. Still, support falls short of 50% irrespective of party preference.

否决增值税上调不会阻止额外的养老金发放,但意味着政府必须寻找替代资金来源,这可能会通过更具争议的方式实现。

A rejection of the VAT increase won’t stop the extra pension payout, but means the government must find alternative funding, potentially via more controversial means.

这可能包括提高基于薪资的社会保障缴款、增加政府财政出资并相应削减其他领域的预算,或者提高退休年龄。

That could include raising salary-based social security contributions, increasing the government’s financial contribution, and in turn budget cuts in other areas, or raising the retirement age.

目前瑞士增值税的标准税率为8.1%。这还不到其任何欧盟邻国的一半:德国的税率为19%,法国和奥地利为20%,意大利为22%。

The standard rate of Swiss VAT currently is 8.1%. That’s less than half that of any of its European Union neighbors: Germany has a rate of 19%, France and Austria have 20%, and Italy 22%.

尽管如此,政府还提出了另一项增值税上调计划——这一次是从2028年到2039年的临时上调——以增加该国的国防开支,不过该计划尚未获得议会通过。

Still, the government has also proposed another VAT increase, this time a temporary one from 2028 through 2039, to ramp up the country’s defense spending, though that has yet to be passed by parliament.

11月29日的投票还将就一项放宽瑞士严格的武器出口中立规则的法律进行表决,民调显示反对票以47%领先于赞同票的44%,另有9%的受访者仍未决定。

The Nov. 29 ballot will also feature a question on a law that relaxes Switzerland’s strict neutrality rules on weapons exports, with the poll showing “no” ahead at 47% versus 44%, with 9% still undecided.

下个月将要表决的最后两项提案均是由支持者收集10万个签名所触发的动议:

The two final proposals to be voted on next month are both initiatives, triggered by proponents collecting 100,000 signatures: