随着本杰明·内塔尼亚胡为在本月的选举中继续担任以色列总理而奋斗，关于他的政治前景的争论涵盖了多条战线上的战争、腐败指控以及专制主义的指责。
As Benjamin Netanyahu fights to remain Israel’s prime minister in this month’s election, debate over his political future spans wars on multiple fronts, corruption allegations and accusations of authoritarianism.
但对于以色列裔美国活动家和作家米科·佩莱德来说，只有两个问题将“决定”这次选举的成败：对极端正统派犹太人的兵役豁免，以及要求对未能阻止2023年10月7日袭击事件进行调查。
But for Israeli-American activist and author Miko Peled, only two issues will “make or break” the vote: military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews and demands for an inquiry into the failure to prevent the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks.
“这是竞选活动所聚焦的两个主要议题，也是以色列公众所关注的焦点，”他对阿纳多卢通讯社表示。
“Those are the two major issues that the campaigns are focusing on and the Israeli public is focused on,” he told Anadolu.
“其他所有事情都是胡说八道，因为人们支持种族灭绝。人们支持对伊朗的袭击。人们支持对黎巴嫩南部和叙利亚部分地区的占领。”对极端正统派或哈雷迪派男性的兵役豁免长期以来一直使该国分裂。许多人认为全时间宗教学习是他们的首要职责，并反对强制征兵。
“All the other stuff is nonsense because people support the genocide. People support the attacks on Iran. People support the occupation of Southern Lebanon and parts of Syria.”Exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, men have long divided the country. Many regard full-time religious study as their primary duty and oppose compulsory enlistment.
佩莱德估计，接近10万名有资格服兵役的年轻极端正统派男性拒绝入伍。
Peled estimated that close to 100,000 young ultra-Orthodox men were eligible for military service but refusing to enlist.
内塔尼亚胡的主要对手承诺要结束广泛的豁免，而他的极端正统派联盟伙伴则一直在努力保留这些豁免。
Netanyahu’s main opponents have pledged to end broad exemptions, while his ultra-Orthodox coalition partners have sought to preserve them.
佩莱德警告说，强制征兵的努力可能会在以色列社会内部引发大规模动荡。
Peled warned that efforts to compel enlistment could provoke massive unrest within Israeli society.
“他们永远不会同意服役。这是一个非常有凝聚力的社区。他们遵循托拉律法的条文，并且不会服役，”他说。“而以色列社会的其他部分也不会放弃。他们不会只是任由这种情况发生。”第二个分歧点是对未能阻止2023年10月袭击事件的问责。
“They will never agree to serve. It's a very strong community. They follow the letter of the law of the Torah and they will not serve,” he said. “And the rest of the Israeli society will also not give up. They're not just going to let it happen.”The second dividing line is accountability for the failure to prevent the October 2023 attacks.
内塔尼亚胡的主要挑战者、前军方首脑加迪·艾森科特承诺要成立一个独立的国家调查委员会，以调查这些失败。内塔尼亚胡多次抵制对此类调查的呼吁。
Netanyahu’s main challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, has pledged to establish an independent state commission of inquiry into the failures. Netanyahu has repeatedly resisted calls for such an inquiry.
佩莱德对内塔尼亚胡的熟悉可以追溯到他们在耶路撒冷的童年邻里。未来的总理曾与佩莱德的妹妹努里特同校。
Peled’s familiarity with Netanyahu stretches back to their childhood neighborhood in Jerusalem. The future prime minister attended school with Peled’s sister, Nurit.
在他的回忆录《将军的儿子》中，佩莱德回忆说，他小时候曾钦佩被广泛称为“比比”的内塔尼亚胡。这种钦佩在内塔尼亚胡进入政坛后逐渐消失。
In his memoir, The General’s Son, Peled recalled admiring Netanyahu, widely known as Bibi, as a young boy. That admiration faded when Netanyahu entered politics.
他写道：“他看起来不够真诚，带有机会主义色彩，而且他的立场强硬得毫不妥协。在我看来，在他领导下的任何政府都不会推进和平事业。”
“He seemed insincere and opportunistic, and his views were uncompromisingly hawkish. It was obvious to me that no government under him was going to advance the cause of peace,” Peled wrote.
1997年，佩莱德的侄女斯玛达在耶路撒冷的一起自杀式爆炸袭击中遇害，当时内塔尼亚胡正担任总理。她的死促使佩莱德开始寻求与巴勒斯坦人的接触，并帮助塑造了他后来的行动主义。
Netanyahu was prime minister when Peled’s niece, Smadar, was killed in a Jerusalem suicide bombing in 1997. Her death prompted Peled to seek encounters with Palestinians and helped shape his subsequent activism.
他认为，内塔尼亚胡的目标一直很明确，而他持续的政治影响力正是对这些目标的支持。
He argues that Netanyahu’s objectives have always been clear and that his continued political relevance reflects support for those objectives.
他写道：“他的意识形态众所周知。他从未掩饰自己想做什么。正是因此，他一直能够当选，因为以色列公众喜欢他说的话，也喜欢他的意识形态。他们支持他的意识形态。”佩莱德指责内塔尼亚胡领导了针对巴勒斯坦人的种族灭绝以及更广泛的种族清洗运动，范围超出加沙。
“His ideology was well known. He never hid what he wanted to do. And that's why he keeps getting elected, because the Israeli public likes what he says, and they like his ideology. They support his ideology.”Peled accused Netanyahu of leading genocide and a broader campaign of ethnic cleansing against Palestinians, extending beyond Gaza.
他说：“他是一个战争罪犯……他应该被送到海牙，然后因余生而入狱。”但他同时认为，支撑以色列战争的观念不仅限于一位领导人。以色列人，他说，一直接受教育，认为持续冲突是生存所必需的。
“He is a war criminal … he should go to The Hague, and then go to jail for the rest of his life.”But he argued that the outlook sustaining Israel’s wars extends beyond one leader. Israelis, he said, are educated to believe that perpetual conflict is necessary for survival.
他说：“他们知道‘我们从巴勒斯坦人手中夺走了土地，但我们别无选择。而他们想杀死我们，因为那是他们的土地。我们必须与他们作战，以免他们杀死我们。而且没有解决方案。’”“所有主要候选人都这么说，他们说没有解决方案。”佩莱德表示，这种观念渗透到了政治、教育和公众讨论之中，与此同时还伴随着对军事实力和自力更生的呼声。
“They know ‘we took the land from Palestinians, but we didn't have a choice. And they want to kill us because it's their land. And we have to fight them so that they don't kill us. And there's no solution,’” he said. “Any of the major candidates, all of them say there is no solution.”Peled said this belief permeated politics, education and public discussion, alongside demands for military strength and self-reliance.
他警告不要假设内塔尼亚胡的政治生涯即将结束，称其联盟“非常稳固”，并预测其伙伴将表现良好。
He cautioned against assuming Netanyahu’s political career was ending, describing his coalition as “very comfortable” and predicting that its partners would perform well.
“任何人如果因为某种原因认为他会消失，那就是没有正确看地图，”他说。
“Anybody who expects that for some reason he will disappear is not reading the map properly,” he said.
佩莱德的政治立场也与其父亲马蒂·佩莱德的立场不同，后者是一名以色列将军，后来成为和平与两国方案的倡导者。
Peled’s political position also departs from that of his father, Matti Peled, an Israeli general who later championed peace and a two-state solution.
年轻的佩莱德认为该方案不可行，认为以色列对巴勒斯坦领土的控制已经使其失去可行的基础。
The younger Peled considers that solution unworkable, arguing that Israeli control over Palestinian territory has left no viable basis for it.
他说，以色列不会停止夺取巴勒斯坦土地，“除非国际社会强行制止它。”
He said Israel would not stop taking Palestinian land “unless it is forcibly stopped by the international community.”
“虽然它尚未在法律上被吞并。但事实上，大部分土地已经失去，”他说的是约旦河西岸。“而且你会看到这些巴勒斯坦人居住的贫民窟。现在他们想把他们赶出去。所以，两国方案是一个神话。”
“Although it's not legally annexed yet. But it's in de facto, most of it is gone,” he said of the West Bank. “And you have these ghettos in which Palestinians live. And now they want to kick them out. So, the two-state solution is a myth.”
佩莱德将犹太复国主义描述为一种种族主义和种族灭绝的意识形态。他说，要实现两国方案，政府就必须同意巴勒斯坦人拥有权利，而他表示“这永远不会发生，因为犹太复国主义意识形态认为整片土地属于犹太人。”通过他在华盛顿创立的“巴勒斯坦自由之屋”，佩莱德倡导在历史上的巴勒斯坦全境建立一个民主国家，并赋予巴勒斯坦人返回权。
Peled described Zionism as a racist and genocidal ideology. To have two states, he said, the government would have to agree that Palestinians have rights, something he said “would never happen because the Zionist ideology says the whole land belongs to the Jewish people.”Through the Palestine House of Freedom in Washington, which he founded, Peled advocates a democratic state across historic Palestine with a right of return for Palestinians.
“和平的选择是：在历史上的巴勒斯坦全境建立一个自由的巴勒斯坦，并实现返回权。这一选择将使以色列人和巴勒斯坦人能够和平共处。”他说，该组织旨在向选举官员和公众解释这一替代方案。
“That option for peace is a free Palestine on all of historic Palestine with the right of return. That option will allow Israelis and Palestinians to live in peace.”He said the organization sought to explain that alternative to elected officials and the public.
当被问及外部力量是否能够阻止以色列时，他说欧洲国家和美国拥有手段，但未能采取行动。
Asked whether outside powers could stop Israel, he said European countries and the US had the means but had failed to act.
“当然，欧洲人和美国人今天可以阻止它。他们本可以阻止10月7日的事件。他们本可以阻止加沙的种族灭绝……他们本可以阻止这一切。”佩勒德呼吁各国在体育、学术和文化生活中将以色列视为“弃儿”。他还表达了担忧，传统上支持巴勒斯坦的国家正在考虑与以色列恢复正常关系。在他看来，改变政府政策需要持续的公众压力。
“Of course, the Europeans and the Americans can stop it today. They could have prevented Oct. 7th. They could have prevented the genocide in Gaza … They could have prevented all of it.”Peled urged countries to treat Israel as a “pariah” in sporting, academic and cultural life. He also expressed concern that countries traditionally supportive of Palestine were considering normalizing relations with Israel. For him, changing government policy requires sustained public pressure.
“选民必须站起来说不。全世界的选民、公民必须站起来，说不归化，不贸易，不外交关系，”他说。
“The constituents have to stand up and say no. The constituents around the world, citizens have to stand up and say no to normalization, no to trade, no to diplomatic relations,” he said.
“人们必须这样做。人们必须要求他们的政府这样做。然后他们还必须要求媒体讲真话。”
“People have to do this. People have to demand of their governments that they do this. And then they also have to demand of the media to tell the truth.”
虽然建立巴勒斯坦国家似乎遥不可及且日益困难，但佩勒德表示，以色列国，尤其是加沙战争爆发后，“正在从内部崩溃。”他说：“以色列社会被撕裂。以色列社会从来不是一个有凝聚力的社会。它只是一群不同的群体用胶带粘在一起。10月7日撕掉了那条胶带。”
While the establishment of a Palestinian state seems distant and increasingly difficult, Peled said the state of Israel, particularly after the Gaza war began, “is crumbling from within.”“Israeli society was ripped apart. Israeli society was never a cohesive society. It was a bunch of different groups tied together with scotch tape. Oct. 7 ripped off that scotch tape,” he said.
“所以，当你听到政治家、记者、街头人物之间的希伯来语言论时，你会发现这种毒辣言论令人难以置信。仇恨超乎想象。”他指出，港口和机场的中断，以及黎巴嫩和加沙附近社区居民的持续流离失所，是这种紧张局势的证据。
“So, when you hear the discourse in Hebrew between politicians, the journalists, people in the street, the vitriol is unbelievable. The hatred is beyond belief.”He pointed to disruption at ports and airports and the continued displacement of residents from communities near Lebanon and Gaza as evidence of the strain.
他说教育和医疗系统已经“破产”，称警察“腐败”，并把司法系统描述为“政治化”。
He said the education and healthcare systems were “bankrupt,” called the police “corrupt,” and described the judicial system as “politicized.”
“那么，国家还剩下什么？”他说。“是的，他们有大炸弹。他们拥有轰炸所有人的硬件。但这就是全部。没有其他东西剩下了。所以，这个国家正在崩溃。”佩莱德认为军事实力无法弥补这些弱点，并警告说，进一步的压力可能导致彻底崩溃。
“So, what's left of the state?” he said. “Yes, they have big bombs. They've got the hardware to bomb everybody. But that's all there is. There's nothing else left. So, that state is crumbling.”Peled argued that military power could not compensate for those weaknesses and warned that further pressure could precipitate a complete collapse.
“如果没有计划用真正的民主巴勒斯坦取代现政权，随之而来的混乱将是不可想象的、难以理解的，”他说。
“If there is no plan to replace the regime with a real democratic Palestine, the chaos that will ensue will be unfathomable, unimaginable,” he said.
“因此，作为巴勒斯坦自由之屋，我们的论点是，我们必须制定一个计划，以便当它真的崩溃时，不会陷入混乱。”
“So our argument as Palestine House of Freedom is that we must have a plan in place so that when it does collapse, it's not chaos.”
他呼吁用他所描述的种族隔离制度取而代之的是一种“代表那里所有人民”的民主。
He called for replacing what he described as an apartheid system with a democracy that “represents all the people there.”