彭博行业研究预测，到2035年，流媒体游戏将成为一个规模达380亿美元的市场，而专用游戏主机将不再是大众市场产品。这一判断的前提是，本十年末GPU过剩产能将压低算力价格，而这种情况目前尚未出现。
Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts that streamed games will become a $38B market by 2035 and that the dedicated console will stop being a mass-market product. The case depends on surplus GPU capacity pushing compute prices down late this decade, which has not happened yet.
到2035年，流媒体游戏将成为一个380亿美元的市场，游戏主机可能不再是大众市场产品。这是彭博行业研究的最新研究结论。
Streamed games will be a $38B market by 2035, and the console may stop being a mass-market product. That is new research from Bloomberg Intelligence.
该报告由彭博行业研究分析师内森·奈杜主笔，《彭博》于周二进行了报道。人工智能在这里发挥双重作用：既降低成本，又为流媒体运行所依赖的数据中心提供算力。
The report is led by BI analyst Nathan Naidu and was reported by Bloomberg on Tuesday. AI does double duty, cutting costs and supplying the data centres streaming runs on.
游戏主机将沦为小众产品。奈杜将它们比作唱片机——由爱好者和收藏者继续保留，并称其角色相对而言已不具经济性。
Consoles become a niche. Naidu compares them to record players, kept on by enthusiasts and collectors, and calls their role relatively uneconomic.
这一经济逻辑建立在尚未到来的供应过剩之上。奈杜承认，目前人工智能需求正在推高算力价格，但他预计这轮建设将在本十年末留下过剩的GPU产能。
The economics rest on a glut that has not arrived. Naidu concedes AI demand is pushing compute prices up now, and expects the build-out to leave surplus GPU capacity late this decade.
价格正朝着相反方向移动。亚马逊云科技在7月将预留容量的GPU价格上调了约20%，这是六个月内的第二次涨价。原因是内存短缺，而分析师预计这一短缺在2028年前不会缓解。
Prices are moving the other way. AWS raised GPU prices about 20% in July for reserved capacity, its second rise in six months. The cause is a memory shortage analysts do not expect to ease before 2028.
各家公司的定位十分具体。微软凭借Xbox云游戏占据流媒体市场约40%的份额，彭博行业研究估计其上季度时长达2.2亿小时。英伟达凭借GeForce Now占据优势，腾讯则在中国领先。
The company calls are specific. Microsoft holds roughly 40% of streaming with Xbox Cloud Gaming, which BI estimates at 220 million hours last quarter. Nvidia has the edge with GeForce Now, and Tencent leads in China.
而运营方自己的说法则没那么确定。微软于7月开始测试广告支持的流媒体服务，亚马逊将Luna并入Prime Video——在我们自己的报道看来，这些举动等于承认云游戏迄今尚未成功。
The operators sound less certain. Microsoft began testing ad-supported streaming in July and Amazon folded Luna into Prime Video, moves our own reporting read as an admission that cloud gaming has not worked yet.
奈杜认为任天堂处境最差，因为它一直将流媒体视为边缘业务。索尼凭借PlayStation Plus和PlayStation Portal表现较好。
Naidu puts Nintendo in the worst position, because it has treated streaming as peripheral. Sony fares better on PlayStation Plus and the PlayStation Portal.
尽管如此，微软仍在打造游戏主机。Xbox负责人阿莎·夏尔马于7月宣布将于2027年推出下一代主机，同时裁减3200个岗位并剥离五个工作室，其中两个位于欧洲。
Microsoft is building a console anyway. Xbox chief Asha Sharma announced a next-generation machine for 2027 in July, while cutting 3,200 roles and shedding five studios, two of them European.
那里的压力来自利润率，而非流媒体。Xbox 在本财年的利润率降至 3%，微软尚未排除分拆或直接出售的可能性。
The pressure there is margin, not streaming. Xbox’s profit margin fell to 3% this financial year, and Microsoft has not ruled out a spinoff or an outright sale.
欧洲有法律利益关系。布鲁塞尔将云流媒体设为 Activision 交易的条件，微软的公开承诺为欧洲经济区玩家和流媒体提供商提供了这些游戏的免费许可证。
Europe has a legal stake. Brussels made cloud streaming a condition of the Activision deal, and Microsoft’s published commitments give EEA players and streaming providers free licences for those games.
时间很重要。这些许可证自 2023 年 10 月起计十年，将在彭博社 380 亿美元估值日期前两年失效，但在窗口期内获得的许可证将无限期有效。
The clock matters. They run ten years from October 2023, lapsing two years before BI’s $38B date, though licences taken inside the window last indefinitely.
游戏制作的速度正在超过游戏玩法的变化。彭博社报道，Epic 首席执行官蒂姆·斯威尼表示，公司正在进行改造以实现最大的人工智能加速，已将 Claude 和 Gemini 集成到虚幻引擎 6 中。对超过 2300 名开发者的调查显示，52% 认为生成式人工智能正在损害行业。
Game-making is moving faster than game-playing. Bloomberg reports that Epic chief Tim Sweeney said the company is retooling for maximum AI acceleration, having already built Claude and Gemini into Unreal Engine 6. A survey of more than 2,300 developers found 52% think generative AI is harming the industry.