我们的领袖以及关于有效利他主义的报道引发了该领域学者和其他读者的回应。有效利他主义是一种强调数据驱动捐赠、并以复杂甚至离奇的道德计算审视世界的运动。以下是他们来信的选编,已为简洁作了删改。
Our leader and report on effective altruism, a movement that stresses data-driven donations and subjects the world to complex, even bizarre, moral calculations, drew a response from academics working in the field and other readers. Here is a selection of their letters, edited for brevity.
您在多方面赞扬了有效利他主义,但最终得出结论认为它不配拥有如今所行使的权力(“世纪最大的思想”,10月3日)。这一最终结论站不住脚,因为它建立在虽然在抽象层面成立,但若施加于其他掌权的思想和社会运动时,甚至会更为苛刻的批评之上。请考虑文章中受到批评的有效利他主义的两个特点:其一是其道德圈的银河规模;其二是可能,在您看来,许可不良行为的道德权威感。
You praised effective altruism in many ways, but ultimately concluded that it is not deserving of the power that it has now come to wield (“The century’s biggest idea”, October 3rd). This final conclusion fails because it rests on criticisms that, although valid in the abstract, would land even more harshly on the other ideas and social movements that hold power. Consider the following two features of effective altruism that drew criticism in the article: the galactic size of effective altruism’s moral circle, and the sense of moral authority that could, in your view, licence bad behaviour.
首先,广泛的道德圈确实是有效利他主义的一个显著特征,这可能导致奇怪、推测性的伦理主张。关于数百万虾、数十亿昆虫和万亿未来数字意识的相对重要性的网络讨论或许有趣,但我们需要的不仅仅是背面信封式的效用计算,才能做出严肃的决策。但请考虑另一种选择:一个在道德上无法辩护的狭隘道德圈。
First, an expansive moral circle is indeed a characteristic feature of effective altruism, and this can lead to weird, speculative ethical claims. Internet discussions of the relative importance of millions of shrimp, billions of bugs, and trillions of future digital minds may be fun, but we need more than back-of-the-envelope calculations of utility to make serious decisions. But consider the alternative: a moral circle that is indefensibly narrow.
美国政治体系已经决定碳污染可以免费,且工厂化养殖中动物可以被虐待,这些决定只有在你认为未来的人和动物实际上不重要时才成立。无需相信现在应当为未来而完全牺牲,仅因现状对未来人们的冷漠无情而感到厌恶即可。
The American political system has decided that carbon pollution can be free and that vast numbers of animals can be mistreated in factory farms, decisions that only make sense if you believe that future people and animals practically don’t matter. One does not need to believe that the present should be completely sacrificed for the sake of the future to be repulsed by the status quo’s callousness towards future people.
其次,担心那些认为自己拥有特殊道德真理准入权的人会行为不端是合理的,但这对任何半精通的有效利他主义者来说都不会是个惊喜。指出这一点就像向亲市场的人解释外部性的概念;如果他们的观点不成熟,这很有用,但对任何持有深思熟虑观点的人来说都显而易见。
Second, the concern that those who believe they have special access to moral truth will behave poorly is a legitimate concern, but this will not come as a surprise to any half-sophisticated effective altruist. Pointing this out is like explaining the concept of an externality to someone who is pro-market; useful if their views are immature, but obvious to anyone with a considered view.
还值得一提的是,历史上有些人持有强烈但不受欢迎的道德观点,却在历史评判中表现得远比列宁或法国革命者更好。公开的酷刑处刑曾一度流行,直到在启蒙思想的影响下被法律禁止;而废奴主义者约翰·布朗,很难让人不对他产生某种尊重。
It is also worth noting that there are examples of people with strongly held, unpopular moral views who have fared much better in the judgment of history than Lenin or French revolutionaries. Public torture executions were popular until they were outlawed under the influence of Enlightenment ideas, and John Brown, the slavery abolitionist, is hard to not somewhat respect.
历史确实告诉我们,革命很少能带来他们所承诺的好处,但鉴于美国现任总统,一味顺从多数也不是个好主意。
History does teach us that revolutions rarely bring the benefits they promise, but given the current president of the United States, always deferring to the majority is no great idea either.
埃里克·唐纳德 匹兹堡大学经济学助理教授 有效利他主义的教义告诉慈善机构,应将资金用于产生最大可能的收益。但一个更大的思想是说,政府也应该这样做。
Eric DonaldAssistant professor of economicsUniversity of Pittsburgh The doctrine of effective altruism tells charities to spend their money to produce the largest possible benefits. But a much bigger idea says that governments, too, should be doing just that.
这一思想正迅速扎根。在英国,财政部的《绿皮书》如今就遵循这一原则。因此,当各部门申请资金时,他们必须估算该支出将产生的收益,并展示这些收益与纳税人成本之间的比较。而且这些收益不仅要包括收入的增加,还要包括所有使我们生活变得有价值的非货币因素;健康、安全的街道、工作等等。所有这些非货币因素都应首先以生活满意度的单位进行评估,然后再转换回其货币等值。
This idea is rapidly taking root. In Britain it is what the Treasury’s Green Book now adheres to. So when departments ask for money they have to estimate the benefits that the spending will produce and show how that compares with the cost to the taxpayer. And the benefits have to include not just increases in income but all those non-monetary things that make our lives worthwhile; health, safe streets, a job and so on. All of these non-monetary things are to be evaluated in units of life satisfaction, before they are translated back into their monetary equivalents.
英国正以这种方式引领世界,将所有福祉收益纳入考量,并将这一检验标准应用于所有支出,无论是经常性支出还是资本性支出。这是迈向更理性政府的巨大一步。正如伦敦政治经济学院最近的一份报告所示,如果在决策中贯彻落实这种做法,将要求优先事项发生重大转变。希望这些转变能在下一次支出审查中得到体现。
In this way Britain is leading the world, by including all well-being benefits and applying this test to all expenditures, current as well as capital. This is a huge movement towards more rational government. As a recent report from the London School of Economics shows, this approach, if followed through in decision-making, would require major shifts in priorities. Let us hope these can be reflected in the next spending review.
理查德·莱亚德教授,勋爵福祉项目联合主任经济绩效研究中心伦敦政治经济学院尽管贵刊抱怨有效利他主义的批评者往往“发现攻击人比攻击球更容易”,但贵刊的社论有时也会犯同样的毛病。贵刊写道:“随着势力壮大,有效利他主义变得更加古怪”,并以关注动物福利为例。但古怪并非反对将道德考量延伸至动物的理由。
Professor Lord Richard LayardCo-directorWell-Being ProgrammeCentre for Economic PerformanceLondon School of Economics Although you complain that effective altruism’s critics often “find it easier to play the nerd than the ball” your leader occasionally does the same. You write that “as it has become stronger, EA has become stranger”, citing concern for animal welfare. But strangeness is no argument against extending moral consideration to animals.
贵刊还暗示,得出违背直觉结论的推理“必定存在隐蔽的错误步骤”。然而,《经济学人》理所当然地捍卫的许多原则,从种族平等到同性恋权利,在人类很大一部分人看来曾显得极其违背直觉。就在一个月前,贵刊在谈论女性权利时,还感叹太“少有人通过从第一性原理推理来解决道德问题”(《打开玻璃门》,9月5日)。
You also suggest that reasoning which produces counterintuitive conclusions “must have a hidden faulty step”. Yet many principles The Economist rightly champions, from racial equality to gay rights, have seemed profoundly counterintuitive to large portions of humanity. Only a month earlier, writing about women’s rights, you lamented that too “few people resolve moral questions by reasoning from first principles” (“Opening the glass front door”, September 5th).
贵刊指责有效利他主义允许未来危害与当下苦难相抗衡。然而,同期社论在谈及镜像生命时却敦促监管机构预防未来风险,因为“跟上技术发展的步伐不是一种选择”(《黑暗的倒影》,10月3日)。贵报同样担忧人工智能风险、大流行病防范,以及缓解当下贫困与减缓未来气候变化之间的权衡。这些问题恰恰需要在当下与未来福祉之间进行那些贵刊批评有效利他主义所做的艰难比较。
You fault effective altruism for allowing future harms to compete with present suffering. Yet your leader on mirror life in the same issue urges regulators to pre-empt future risks because “playing catch-up with the technology is not an option” (“Dark reflections”, October 3rd). Your newspaper has likewise worried about AI risk, pandemic preparedness and the trade-off between alleviating poverty today and mitigating climate change tomorrow. These questions require precisely the difficult comparisons between present and future welfare for which you criticise effective altruism.
布拉克斯特·哈特曼有效利他主义约克大学分会创始人兼前会长多伦多您指出了我们有效利他主义者是自己最严厉的批评者,却忽略了这种自我反省正在产生补救措施。
Braxton HartmanFounder and former presidentEffective Altruism York UniversityToronto You noted how we effective altruists are our own fiercest critics, but missed how this soul-searching is producing remedies.
以狂热为例,即对单一目标的执着追求。威尔·麦卡斯基尔正确地回应说,有效利他主义者担忧道德不确定性(“应邀撰稿”,10月10日)。然而,他偏好的理论——即最大化预期选择价值理论,通过“置信度”和“利害关系”来比较道德观点,这意味着拥有极具前景的天文数字级利害关系的少数派观点可能胜出,导致狂热的结果。这促使我和两位同事发表了一种替代方案——“道德市场”,它按我们对每种道德观点的置信度比例分配资源,使任何单一理论都无法独占一切。
Take fanaticism, the single-minded pursuit of one goal. Will MacAskill rightly replies that effective altruists worry about moral uncertainty (By Invitation, October 10th). Yet his preferred theory, known as maximising expected choiceworthiness, compares moral views by using “confidence” and “stakes”, meaning minority views with promising astronomical stakes can win out, a fanatical result. This led two colleagues and I to publish an alternative, the “moral marketplace”, which divides resources in proportion to our confidence in each moral view, so that no single theory can claim everything.
再以您担心的“手握电子表格的人会忽视个体”为例。在“更快乐生活研究所”,我们开创性地根据慈善机构改善幸福和减轻痛苦的程度来评估它们,该程度通过自我报告来衡量。我们使用“幸福生活年”(WELLBYs)这一指标,英国财政部于2021年采纳了该指标。
Or take your worry that anyone wielding a spreadsheet loses sight of the individual. At the Happier Lives Institute, we’ve pioneered evaluating charities by how much they improve happiness and reduce suffering, as measured by self-reports. We use well-being-years (WELLBYs), a metric the Treasury adopted in 2021.
这重塑了优先顺序。目前,非洲的心理健康慈善机构名列前茅。我们估计,捐赠者只需约20英镑(26美元)就能预防一年的抑郁症。我们发表在《2025年世界幸福报告》上的研究发现,一个典型的英国慈善机构实现同样的效果需要约2万英镑。
This reshapes priorities. So far, mental-health charities in Africa come out on top. We estimate donors can prevent a year of depression for around £20 ($26). Our research in the 2025 World Happiness Report found that a typical British charity achieves the same for about £20,000.
您推崇市场。有效利他主义实际上已经为“做最多的好事”创造了一个市场。其内外部批评者提供了熊彼特式的“创造性毁灭”狂飙。迈克尔·普兰特博士创始人兼主任幸福生活研究所研究员幸福研究中心牛津大学麦克阿斯基尔先生在捍卫有效利他主义时,似乎并未意识到他的道德推理在多大程度上依赖于他自身的立场。十分之一的概念本身就 presupposes 付款能力,而付款能力又取决于个人的现有处境;整个行动建立在其信徒所处困境和教育所赋予的世界观之上。
You champion markets. Effective altruism has, in effect, created one for doing the most good. Its critics, inside and out, supply the Schumpeterian gales of creative destruction. Dr Michael PlantFounder-directorHappier Lives InstituteResearch fellowWellbeing Research CentreUniversity of Oxford Mr MacAskill defends effective altruism without apparently noticing how far his moral reasoning depends on his own standpoint. The very idea of a tithe presumes an ability to pay, which depends on one’s existing circumstances, and the whole enterprise rests on the worldview afforded by its adherents’ predicament and education.
像麦克阿斯基尔先生这样的人站在前沿绝非偶然:他们接受过牛津培训,拥有时间,而且相对而言也有财力去思考他人的困境。
It is no accident that people such as Mr MacAskill sit at the forefront: Oxford-trained, with the time and, comparatively speaking, the money to contemplate the plight of others.
在非洲生活让我看到,零星的资金注入所产生的“创可贴效应” — — 即使是大量贫困人口也可能在短期内得到暂时缓解,但几乎没有持久影响。
Living in Africa has opened my eyes to the Elastoplast effect of sporadic injections of money, which can lift even large numbers of indigent people for a time with little or no lasting effect.
在微观层面,我每天都会给一个睡在公交车站避雨处的人提供帮助。这种影响是表面的和短暂的。他每晚都会回来,直到警察把他赶走,因为结构性失业和政治停滞使他没有就业前景。有效利他主义者认为大规模捐赠可以具有高预期价值,但当贫困在政治和经济上被制造出来时,善意的捐赠不会产生实质性的长期影响。
On a microscopic scale, I give every day to a man who sleeps in a bus shelter. The effect is superficial and transitory. He is back every night until the police move him on, because structural unemployment and political stasis leave him with no prospect of work. Effective altruists say that large-scale giving can have high expected value, but where poverty is politically and economically induced, well-meaning giving makes no substantive long-term difference.
如果没有在这种层面上的改变,有效利他主义者接下来所设想的任何东西都不会持久。D.A.L. 科尔德韦尔管理学教授威特沃特斯兰德大学,约翰内斯堡麦克阿斯基尔先生主张有效利他主义者不应将一切押注在单一道德观上。作为一名量化投资组合经理,我认为他们也不应将一切押注在单一估计上。将不确定的输入喂入刚性优化器,可能会使其变成误差最大化器,从而在被高估最多的数字上下最大的赌注。成本-收益排名对捐赠者也可能产生类似效应,引导他们走向所谓的“最佳”干预措施。
Without change at that level, nothing the effective altruists dream up next will endure D.A.L. COLDWELLProfessor of managementUniversity of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg Mr MacAskill argues that effective altruists should not stake everything on a single moral view. As a quantitative portfolio manager, I would add that they should not stake everything on a single estimate either. Feed uncertain inputs into a rigid optimiser and it can become an error maximiser, placing its biggest bets on whichever numbers are most overestimated. Cost-benefit rankings can do something similar to donors, steering them towards a single “best” intervention.
然而,即使是该运动的旗舰事业也充满不确定性。驱虫药的教育收益存在争议,而一些捐赠的蚊帐可能最终被用来捕鱼。两者仍可能是钱的极佳用法,但这两种估计都不够精确,无法证明单一投入的合理性。
Yet even the movement’s flagship causes are subject to uncertainty. The educational benefits of deworming are disputed, and some donated mosquito nets may end up being used to catch fish. Both may still be excellent uses of money, but neither estimate is precise enough to justify an undiversified bet.
没有理性的基金经理会仅凭单一预测就把全部资产投入一只股票,而那些这么做的人往往很快就不再是基金经理。捐助者同样应当进行分散,以防任何成本‑收益模型出现错误。
No sensible fund-manager puts everything into one stock on the strength of a single forecast, and those who do rarely remain fund managers for long. Donors should likewise diversify, as insurance against errors in any cost-benefit model.
你的领袖警告说,小团体可能会陷入与目标错位的人工智能相同的陷阱:为单一、致命错误的目标进行优化。如果我们最好的模型都无法预测一个家庭会如何使用蚊帐,那么没有人应当对自己已经找到了人工智能的正确目标过于自信。
Your leader warns that a small group could fall into the same trap as a misaligned AI: optimising for a single, fatally wrong objective. If our best models cannot predict what a family will do with a mosquito net, nobody should be too confident that they know the right objective for artificial intelligence.
列夫·卡森(Leif Cussen)——格洛斯特郡切尔滕纳姆在你看来,有效利他主义者的怪异之处的第一个例子是,有些人“认为人类与其他动物之间的道德区别很薄弱”。但这根本不是奇怪的想法。这是一种基于科学的观点,曾被查尔斯·达尔文、杰里米·边沁、简·古道尔和理查德·道金斯等人阐述,他们把其他动物称为我们的进化亲戚。
Leif CussenCheltenham, Gloucestershire Example number one for the strangeness of effective altruists in your reckoning is that some “see the moral distinction between humans and other animals as weak”. But that’s not a strange idea at all. It is a viewpoint grounded in science and articulated by everyone from Charles Darwin and Jeremy Bentham to Jane Goodall and Richard Dawkins, who refer to other animals as our evolutionary cousins.
根据《Our World in Data》的数据,人类每年养殖并屠宰约2200亿只脊椎动物(其中9000亿为陆生动物,另外1300亿为养殖鱼类)。这比有史以来人类的总人口数还要多。
According to Our World in Data, humans farm and slaughter roughly 220bn vertebrate animals every year (90bn land animals and another 130bn farmed fish). That’s more animals raised and slaughtered for food each year than the total number of humans who have ever lived.
指出这一现实的非道德性并不需要任何“复杂、甚至离奇的道德计算”。只需要能够将科学事实运用于道德推理。
Pointing out the immorality of this reality does not require any “complex, even bizarre moral calculations.”It just requires the ability to apply scientific facts to moral reasoning.
布鲁斯·弗里德里希(Bruce Friedrich)——华盛顿特区
Bruce FriedrichWashington, DC